Brian J. Gaudet

High‐resolution atmospheric inversion of urban CO2 emissions during the dormant season of the Indianapolis Flux Experiment (INFLUX)

Based on a uniquely dense network of surface towers measuring continuously the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), we developed the first comprehensive monitoring systems of CO2 emissions at high resolution over the city of Indianapolis. The urban inversion evaluated over the 2012-2013 dormant season showed a statistically significant increase of about 20% (from 4.5 to 5.7 MtC ± 0.23 MtC) compared to the Hestia CO2 emission estimate, a state-of-the-art building-level emission product. Spatial structures in prior emission errors, mostly undetermined, appeared to affect the spatial pattern in the inverse solution and the total carbon budget over the entire area by up to 15%, while the inverse solution remains fairly insensitive to the CO2 boundary inflow and to the different prior emissions (i.e., ODIAC). Preceding the surface emission optimization, we improved the atmospheric simulations using a meteorological data assimilation system also informing our Bayesian inversion system through updated observations error variances. Finally, we estimated the uncertainties associated with undetermined parameters using an ensemble of inversions. The total CO2 emissions based on the ensemble mean and quartiles (5.26-5.91 MtC) were statistically different compared to the prior total emissions (4.1 to 4.5 MtC). Considering the relatively small sensitivity to the different parameters, we conclude that atmospheric inversions are potentially able to constrain the carbon budget of the city, assuming sufficient data to measure the inflow of GHG over the city, but additional information on prior emission error structures are required to determine the spatial structures of urban emissions at high resolution.

Statistical characteristics of a real-time precipitation forecasting model

At Colorado State University the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) has been used to produce real-time forecasts of precipitation for the Colorado mountain region since 1991. Originally a so-called dumpbucket scheme was used to generate precipitation, but starting in the fall of 1995 real-time forecasts used the bulk microphysics scheme available with RAMS. For the month of April 1995, a series of 24-h accumulated precipitation forecasts for the month were generated with both the dump-bucket and microphysics versions of the forecast model. Both sets of output were compared to a set of 167 community-based station reports and another set of 32 snow telemetry (SNOTEL) automatic pillow-sensor stations. The addition of microphysics improved the forecasting of the areal extent and maximum amount of precipitation, especially when compared to the SNOTEL observational set, which is found at locations more representative of the model topography. Climatological station precipitation forecasts were improved on the average by correcting for the difference between a station’s actual elevation and the cell-averaged topography used by the model. The model had more problems with the precise timing and geographical location of the precipitation features, probably due in part to the influence of other model physics, the failure of the model to resolve adequately wintertime convection events, and inadequate initializations.

Application of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Air Quality Modeling in the San Francisco Bay Area

AbstractThe Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is evaluated by conducting various sensitivity experiments over central California including the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), with the goal of establishing a WRF model configuration to be used by the Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQMD) for its air quality applications. For the two selected cases, a winter particulate matter case and a summer ozone case, WRF solutions are evaluated both quantitatively by comparing the error statistics and qualitatively by analyzing the model-simulated mesoscale features. Model evaluation is also performed for the SFBA, Sacramento Valley, and San Joaquin Valley subregions. The recommended WRF configuration includes use of the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model/Dudhia (or RRTMG) radiation schemes and the Pleim–Xiu land surface physics, combined with a multiscale four-dimensional data assimilation strategy throughout the simulation period to assimilate the available observations, including standard observati...

Numerical Prediction of Submesoscale Flow in the Nocturnal Stable Boundary Layer over Complex Terrain

AbstractNumerical weather prediction models often perform poorly for weakly forced, highly variable winds in nocturnal stable boundary layers (SBLs). When used as input to air-quality and dispersion models, these wind errors can lead to large errors in subsequent plume forecasts. Finer grid resolution and improved model numerics and physics can help reduce these errors. The Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model (ARW-WRF) has higher-order numerics that may improve predictions of finescale winds (scales <~20 km) in nocturnal SBLs. However, better understanding of the physics controlling SBL flow is needed to take optimal advantage of advanced modeling capabilities.To facilitate ARW-WRF evaluations, a small network of instrumented towers was deployed in the ridge-and-valley topography of central Pennsylvania (PA). Time series of local observations and model forecasts on 1.333- and 0.444-km grids were filtered to isolate deterministic lower-frequency wind components. The time-filtered SBL w...

Using soil records with atmospheric dispersion modeling to investigate the effects of clean air regulations on 60 years of manganese deposition in Marietta, Ohio (USA)

Atmospheric emissions of metals from anthropogenic activities have led to deposition and contamination of soils worldwide. We quantified addition of manganese (Mn) to soils around the largest emitter of Mn in the United States (U.S.) using chemical analyses and atmospheric dispersion modeling (Second-Order Closure Integrated Puff (SCIPUFF)). Concentrations of soil-surface Mn were enriched by 9-fold relative to that of the parent material within 1 km of the facility. Elevated concentrations of Mn and chromium (Cr), another potentially toxic element that was emitted, document contamination only within 1 m of the soil surface. Total mass of Mn added per unit land area integrated over 1 m, mMn, equals ~80 mg Mn cm(-2) near the facility. Values of mMn remained above background up to tens of kilometers from the source. Air concentrations of Mn particles of 7.5-micron diameter simulated with SCIPUFF using available data for the emission rate and local meteorological conditions for 2006 were consistent with measured air concentrations. However, the Mn deposition calculated for 2006 with SCIPUFF yielded a cumulative value over the lifetime of the refinery (60 years) that is a factor of 15 lower than the Mn observed to have been added to the soils. This discrepancy can be easily explained if Mn deposition rates before 1988 were more than an order of magnitude greater than today. Such higher emissions are probable, given the changes in metal production with time and the installation of emission controls after the Clean Air Act (1970). This work shows that atmospheric dispersion models can be used with soil profiles to understand the changes in metal emissions over decadal timescales. In addition, the calculations are consistent with the Clean Air Act accounting for a 15-fold decrease in the Mn deposition to soils around the refinery per metric ton of Mn alloy produced.

Submeso Motions within the Stable Boundary Layer and Their Relationships to Local Indicators and Synoptic Regime in Moderately Complex Terrain

AbstractTo better understand the physical processes of the stable boundary layer and to quantify “submeso motions” in moderately complex terrain, exploratory case-study analyses were performed using observational field data supplemented by gridded North American Regional Reanalysis data and Pennsylvania State University real-time Weather Research and Forecasting Model output. Submeso motions are nominally defined as all motions between the largest turbulent scales and the smallest mesoscales. Seven nighttime cases from August and September of 2011 are chosen from a central Pennsylvania [“Rock Springs” (RS)] network of eight ground-based towers and two sound detection and ranging (sodar) systems . The observation network is located near Tussey Ridge, ~15 km southeast of the Allegheny Mountains. The seven cases are classified by the dominant synoptic-flow direction and proximity to terrain to assess the influence of synoptic conditions on the local submeso and mesogamma motions. It is found that synoptic wi...

Low-Level Mesocyclonic Concentration by Nonaxisymmetric Transport. Part II: Vorticity Dynamics

An idealized supercell simulation using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) produced an elongated low-level mesocyclone that subsequently collapsed into a concentrated vortex. Though vorticity continually increased in the mesocyclone due to horizontal convergence, the collapse phase was additionally characterized by rapidly decreasing pressure, closed streamlines, and the creation of a compact vorticity center isolated from the remaining vorticity. It was shown in Part I of this study that the concentration phase was not initiated by an increase in horizontal convergence, suggesting that the proximate cause resided elsewhere. In this study, the vortex concentration in Part I is examined from a vorticity dynamics perspective. It is shown that concentration occurs when inward radial velocity and vertical vorticity become more spatially correlated in the region surrounding the nascent vortex. It is also emphasized that the anisotropy of the horizontal convergence, which is nearly plane-convergent and of comparable magnitude to the mesocyclonic vorticity, is critical to an understanding of the process. The resultant evolution is intermediate between a state of purely two-dimensional nondivergent dynamics and one in which plane convergence confines vorticity to its axis of dilatation. This intermediate state produces a concentrated vortex more rapidly than either end state. The unsteady nature of the initial vorticity band also serves to increase the circulation and wind speed amplification of the final vortex. It is shown how conceptual models in the fluid dynamics literature can be applied to predicting the time and length scales of tornadic mesocyclone evolution.

Low-Level Mesocyclonic Concentration by Nonaxisymmetric Transport. Part I: Supercell and Mesocyclone Evolution

An idealized simulation of a supercell using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) was able to produce a low-level mesocyclone near the intersection of the forward- and rear-flank downdrafts. The creation of the low-level mesocyclone is similar to previous studies. After 3600 s, the low-level mesocyclone underwent a period of rapid intensification, during which its form changed from an elongated patch to a compact center. This transition was also accompanied by a sudden decrease in pressure (to 12 mb below that of the neighboring flow), and was found to occur even in the absence of nested grids. It is shown that the stage of strong intensification does not begin aloft, as in the dynamic pipe effect, and then descend to the surface. Rather, the vortex is initiated near the surface, and then builds upward. The process is completed in 5 min, and the final vortex can be clearly distinguished from the larger-scale mesocyclone at the cloud base. The reduction of pressure can be explained as a consequence of the evacuation of mass in the horizontal convergence equation. This is in contrast to axisymmetric models of vortex intensification, which generally rely on the evacuation of mass in the vertical divergence equation. In the latter cases a positive horizontal convergence tendency is what initiates the concentrated vortex. However, nondivergent models prove that vorticity concentration can occur in the absence of any horizontal convergence. Here the concentration is associated with a negative horizontal convergence tendency.

Assessment of Hydrometeor Collection Rates from Exact and Approximate Equations. Part I: A New Approximate Scheme

The collection equation is analyzed for the case of two spherical hydrometeors with collection efficiency unity and exponential size distributions. When the fall velocities are significantly different a more general form of the conventional Wisner approximation can be formulated. The accuracy of the new formula exceeds that of the Wisner approximation for all cases considered, except for the collection of a faster species by a slower species if the amount of the faster species is relatively small compared with that of the slower species. The exact solution of the collection equation is then rederived and cast into the form of a power series involving the ratio of the two characteristic fall velocities. It is shown that the new formulation is a first-order correction to the continuous collection equation for hydrometeors with finite diameters and fall velocities. Based on the analysis, the implications for the behavior of both the exact collection equation and its representation in numerical models are discussed.

Wavelet-Based Methodology for the Verification of Stochastic Submeso and Meso-Gamma Fluctuations

AbstractNumerical weather prediction model skill is difficult to assess for transient, nonstationary, nondeterministic, or stochastic motions, like submeso and small meso-gamma motions. New approaches are needed to complement traditional methods and to quantify and evaluate the variability and the errors for these high-frequency, nondeterministic modes. A new verification technique that uses the wavelet transform as a bandpass filter to obtain scale-dependent frequency distributions of fluctuations is proposed for assessing model performance or accuracy. This new approach quantifies the nondeterministic variability independent of time while accounting for the time scale and amplitude of each fluctuation.The efficacy of this wavelet decomposition technique for the verification of submeso and meso-gamma motions is first illustrated for a single case before the analysis is extended to six cases. The sensitivity of subkilometer grid-length Weather Research and Forecasting Model forecasts to the choice of thre...