Bruce E. Rieman

Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change

Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwater species have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring critical drivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We use downscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows and increased temperatures on four interacting species of trout across the interior western United States (1.01 million km2), based on empirical statistical models built from fish surveys at 9,890 sites. Projections under the 2080s A1B emissions scenario forecast a mean 47% decline in total suitable habitat for all trout, a group of fishes of major socioeconomic and ecological significance. We project that native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii, already excluded from much of its potential range by nonnative species, will lose a further 58% of habitat due to an increase in temperatures beyond the species’ physiological optima and continued negative biotic interactions. Habitat for nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta is predicted to decline by 77% and 48%, respectively, driven by increases in temperature and winter flood frequency caused by warmer, rainier winters. Habitat for rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, is projected to decline the least (35%) because negative temperature effects are partly offset by flow regime shifts that benefit the species. These results illustrate how drivers other than temperature influence species response to climate change. Despite some uncertainty, large declines in trout habitat are likely, but our findings point to opportunities for strategic targeting of mitigation efforts to appropriate stressors and locations.

Effects of climate change and wildfire on stream temperatures and salmonid thermal habitat in a mountain river network

Mountain streams provide important habitats for many species, but their faunas are especially vulnerable to climate change because of ectothermic physiologies and movements that are constrained to linear networks that are easily fragmented. Effectively conserving biodiversity in these systems requires accurate downscaling of climatic trends to local habitat conditions, but downscaling is difficult in complex terrains given diverse microclimates and mediation of stream heat budgets by local conditions. We compiled a stream temperature database (n = 780) for a 2500-km river network in central Idaho to assess possible trends in summer temperatures and thermal habitat for two native salmonid species from 1993 to 2006. New spatial statistical models that account for network topology were parameterized with these data and explained 93% and 86% of the variation in mean stream temperatures and maximas, respectively. During our study period, basin average mean stream temperatures increased by 0.38 degrees C (0.27 degrees C/decade), and maximas increased by 0.48 degrees C (0.34 degrees C/decade), primarily due to long-term (30-50 year) trends in air temperatures and stream flows. Radiation increases from wildfires accounted for 9% of basin-scale temperature increases, despite burning 14% of the basin. Within wildfire perimeters, however, stream temperature increases were 2-3 times greater than basin averages, and radiation gains accounted for 50% of warming. Thermal habitat for rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) was minimally affected by temperature increases, except for small shifts towards higher elevations. Bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), in contrast, were estimated to have lost 11-20% (8-16%/decade) of the headwater stream lengths that were cold enough for spawning and early juvenile rearing, with the largest losses occurring in the coldest habitats. Our results suggest that a warming climate has begun to affect thermal conditions in streams and that impacts to biota will be specific to both species and context. Where species are at risk, conservation actions should be guided based on considerations of restoration opportunity and future climatic effects. To refine predictions based on thermal effects, more work is needed to understand mechanisms associated with biological responses, climate effects on other habitat features, and habitat configurations that confer population resilience.

Effects of fire on fish populations: landscape perspectives on persistence of native fishes and nonnative fish invasions

Our limited understanding of the short and long-term effects of fire on fish contributes to considerable uncertainty in assessments of the risks and benefits of fire management alternatives. A primary concern among the many potential effects of fire is the effects of fire and fire management on persistence of native fish populations. Limited evidence suggests vulnerability of fish to fire is contingent upon the quality of affected habitats, the amount and distribution of habitat (habitat fragmentation), and habitat specificity of the species in question. Species with narrow habitat requirements in highly degraded and fragmented systems are likely to be most vulnerable to fire and fire-related disturbance. In addition to effects of fire on native fish, there are growing concerns about the effects of fire on nonnative fish invasions. The role of fire in facilitating invasions by nonnative fishes is unknown, but experience with other species suggests some forms of disturbance associated with fire may facilitate invasion. Management efforts to promote persistence of fishes in fire-prone landscapes can take the form of four basic alternatives: (1) pre-fire management; (2) post-fire management; (3) managing fire itself (e.g. fire fighting); and (4) monitoring and adaptive management. Among these alternatives, pre-fire management is likely to be most effective. Effective pre-fire management activities will address factors that may render fish populations more vulnerable to the effects of fire (e.g. habitat degradation, fragmentation, and nonnative species). Post-fire management is also potentially important, but suffers from being a reactive approach that may not address threats in time to avert them. Managing fire itself can be important in some contexts, but negative consequences for fish populations are possible (e.g. toxicity of fire fighting chemicals to fish). Monitoring and adaptive management can provide important new information for evaluating alternatives, but proper implementation is often hampered by inadequate study designs and inconsistent financial and institutional support. The challenge for providing better management guidelines will be to add solid empirical data and models to assess the relevance of emerging concepts and theories, and provide a sense of where and when fires pose significant risks and/or benefits to fishes.

Distribution and status of seven native salmonids in the interior Columbia River basin and portions of the Klamath River and Great basins

Abstract We summarized presence, absence, current status, and potential historical distribution of seven native salmonid taxa—bull trout Salvelinus confluentus, Yellowstone cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarki bouvieri, westslope cutthroat trout O. c. lewisi, redband trout and steelhead O. mykiss gairdneri, stream type (age-1 migrant) chinook salmon O. tshawytscha, and ocean type (age-0 migrant) chi nook salmon—in the interior Columbia River basin and portions of the Klamath River and Great basins. Potential historical range was defined as the likely distribution in the study area prior to European settlement. Data were compiled from existing sources and surveys completed by more than 150 biologists. Within the potential range of potamodromous salmonids, status was unknown in 38–69% of the area, and the distribution of anadromous salmonids was unknown in 12–15%. We developed models to quantitatively explore relationships among fish status and distribution, the biophysical environment, and land management, ...

Fire and aquatic ecosystems of the Western USA: current knowledge and key questions.

Understanding of the effects of wildland fire and fire management on aquatic and riparian ecosystems is an evolving field, with many questions still to be resolved. Limitations of current knowledge, and the certainty that fire management will continue, underscore the need to summarize available information. Integrating fire and fuels management with aquatic ecosystem conservation begins with recognizing that terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are linked and dynamic, and that fire can play a critical role in maintaining aquatic ecological diversity. To protect aquatic ecosystems we argue that it will be important to: (1) accommodate fire-related and other ecological processes that maintain aquatic habitats and biodiversity, and not simply control fires or fuels; (2) prioritize projects according to risks and opportunities for fire control and the protection of aquatic ecosystems; and (3) develop new consistency in the management and regulatory process. Ultimately, all natural resource management is uncertain; the role of science is to apply experimental design and hypothesis testing to management applications that affect fire and aquatic ecosystems. Policy-makers and the public will benefit from an expanded appreciation of fire ecology that enables them to implement watershed management projects as experiments with hypothesized outcomes, adequate controls, and replication.

Habitat Fragmentation and Extinction Risk of Lahontan Cutthroat Trout

Abstract We used survey data collected by the Nevada Division of Wildlife to analyze presence or absence of Lahontan cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarki henshawi in relation to habitat fragmentation (isolation), habitat size and shape, presence or absence of nonnative salmonids, elevation, latitude, longitude, and precipitation regime for 119 stream basins in the eastern Lahontan basin. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed stream basin isolation to be the only significant correlate of Lahontan cutthroat trout occurrence. Eighty-nine percent of stream basins connected to another basin containing Lahontan cutthroat trout also supported Lahontan cutthroat trout, while only 3290 of isolated stream basins supported Lahontan cutthroat trout. This analysis highlights the potentially negative effect of habitat fragmentation on population persistence for this threatened species.

Wildfire and Native Fish: Issues of Forest Health and Conservation of Sensitive Species

Abstract Issues related to forest health and the threat of larger, more destructive wildfires have led to major new initiatives to restructure and recompose forest communities in the western United States. Proposed solutions will depend, in part, on silvicultural treatments and prescribed burning. Large fires can produce dramatic changes in aquatic systems, including altered sediment and flow regimes, fish mortality, and even local extinctions. Responses of salmonid populations to large disturbances such as fire indicate that complexity and spatial diversity of habitats are important to the resilience and persistence of populations. Some populations retain the ecological diversity necessary to persist in the face of large fires, and natural events such as wildfire have been important in creating and maintaining habitat diversity. Although timber harvest and fire can precipitate similar changes in watershed processes, we do not necessarily expect the physical and ecological consequences of large fires and ...

Sources and Magnitude of Sampling Error in Redd Counts for Bull Trout

Abstract Monitoring of salmonid populations often involves annual redd counts, but the validity of this method has seldom been evaluated. We conducted redd counts of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus in two streams in northern Idaho to address four issues: (1) relationships between adult escapements and redd counts; (2) interobserver variability in redd counts; (3) sources of interobserver variability; and (4) temporal and spatial variation in spawning activity. We found that estimated adult escapements and redd counts were strongly correlated on a logarithmic scale, but both sources of data probably contained large estimation or observation errors. In particular, redd counts varied significantly among observers in replicate counting trials. Observer counts ranged between 28% and 254% of the best estimates of actual redd numbers. Counting errors included both omissions and false identifications. Correlations between counting errors and redd and habitat characteristics were highly variable and provided lim...

CHINOOK SALMON USE OF SPAWNING PATCHES: RELATIVE ROLES OF HABITAT QUALITY, SIZE, AND CONNECTIVITY

Declines in many native fish populations have led to reassessments of management goals and shifted priorities from consumptive uses to species preservation. As management has shifted, relevant environmental characteristics have evolved from traditional metrics that described local habitat quality to characterizations of habitat size and connectivity. Despite the implications this shift has for how habitats may be prioritized for conservation, it has been rare to assess the relative importance of these habitat components. We used an information-theoretic approach to select the best models from sets of logistic regressions that linked habitat quality, size, and connectivity to the occurrence of chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) nests. Spawning distributions were censused annually from 1995 to 2004, and data were complemented with field measurements that described habitat quality in 43 suitable spawning patches across a stream network that drained 1150 km2 in central Idaho. Results indicated that the most plausible models were dominated by measures of habitat size and connectivity, whereas habitat quality was of minor importance. Connectivity was the strongest predictor of nest occurrence, but connectivity interacted with habitat size, which became relatively more important when populations were reduced. Comparison of observed nest distributions to null model predictions confirmed that the habitat size association was driven by a biological mechanism when populations were small, but this association may have been an area-related sampling artifact at higher abundances. The implications for habitat management are that the size and connectivity of existing habitat networks should be maintained whenever possible. In situations where habitat restoration is occurring, expansion of existing areas or creation of new habitats in key areas that increase connectivity may be beneficial. Information about habitat size and connectivity also could be used to strategically prioritize areas for improvement of local habitat quality, with areas not meeting minimum thresholds being deemed inappropriate for pursuit of restoration activities.

Geography of Invasion in Mountain Streams: Consequences of Headwater Lake Fish Introductions

The introduction of fish into high-elevation lakes can provide a geographic and demographic boost to their invasion of stream networks, thereby further endangering the native stream fauna. Increasingly, remaining populations of native salmonids are concentrated in fragmented headwater refugia that are protected by physical or biological barriers from introduced fishes that originate in the pervasive source populations established at lower elevations. Although fish introduced near mainstem rivers frequently encounter obstacles to upstream dispersal, such as steep slopes or falls, we found that brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) dispersed downstream through channel slopes of 80% and 18-m-high falls. Thus, headwater lake stocking provides source populations that may be capable of invading most downstream habitats, including headwater refugia of native fishes. The extent of additional area invasible from lakes, beyond that invasible from downstream, depends on the geography of the stream network, particularly the density and distribution of headwater lakes and their location relative to barriers inhibiting upstream dispersal. In the thermal and trophic environments downstream of lakes, fish commonly grow faster and thus mature earlier and have higher fecundity-at-age than their counterparts in other high-elevation streams. The resulting higher rates of population growth facilitate invasion. Larger body sizes also potentially aid the fish in overcoming barriers to invasion. Trout introductions to high-elevation headwater lakes thus pose disproportionately large risks to native fishes—even when the place of introduction may appear to be spatially dissociated from populations of the native species. Mapping the potential invasible area can help to establish priorities in stocking and eradication efforts.