Dona L. Horan

Effects of climate change and wildfire on stream temperatures and salmonid thermal habitat in a mountain river network

Mountain streams provide important habitats for many species, but their faunas are especially vulnerable to climate change because of ectothermic physiologies and movements that are constrained to linear networks that are easily fragmented. Effectively conserving biodiversity in these systems requires accurate downscaling of climatic trends to local habitat conditions, but downscaling is difficult in complex terrains given diverse microclimates and mediation of stream heat budgets by local conditions. We compiled a stream temperature database (n = 780) for a 2500-km river network in central Idaho to assess possible trends in summer temperatures and thermal habitat for two native salmonid species from 1993 to 2006. New spatial statistical models that account for network topology were parameterized with these data and explained 93% and 86% of the variation in mean stream temperatures and maximas, respectively. During our study period, basin average mean stream temperatures increased by 0.38 degrees C (0.27 degrees C/decade), and maximas increased by 0.48 degrees C (0.34 degrees C/decade), primarily due to long-term (30-50 year) trends in air temperatures and stream flows. Radiation increases from wildfires accounted for 9% of basin-scale temperature increases, despite burning 14% of the basin. Within wildfire perimeters, however, stream temperature increases were 2-3 times greater than basin averages, and radiation gains accounted for 50% of warming. Thermal habitat for rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) was minimally affected by temperature increases, except for small shifts towards higher elevations. Bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), in contrast, were estimated to have lost 11-20% (8-16%/decade) of the headwater stream lengths that were cold enough for spawning and early juvenile rearing, with the largest losses occurring in the coldest habitats. Our results suggest that a warming climate has begun to affect thermal conditions in streams and that impacts to biota will be specific to both species and context. Where species are at risk, conservation actions should be guided based on considerations of restoration opportunity and future climatic effects. To refine predictions based on thermal effects, more work is needed to understand mechanisms associated with biological responses, climate effects on other habitat features, and habitat configurations that confer population resilience.

Climate change effects on stream and river temperatures across the northwest U.S. from 1980–2009 and implications for salmonid fishes

Thermal regimes in rivers and streams are fundamentally important to aquatic ecosystems and are expected to change in response to climate forcing as the Earth’s temperature warms. Description and attribution of stream temperature changes are key to understanding how these ecosystems may be affected by climate change, but difficult given the rarity of long-term monitoring data. We assembled 18 temperature time-series from sites on regulated and unregulated streams in the northwest U.S. to describe historical trends from 1980–2009 and assess thermal consistency between these stream categories. Statistically significant temperature trends were detected across seven sites on unregulated streams during all seasons of the year, with a cooling trend apparent during the spring and warming trends during the summer, fall, and winter. The amount of warming more than compensated for spring cooling to cause a net temperature increase, and rates of warming were highest during the summer (raw trend = 0.17°C/decade; reconstructed trend = 0.22°C/decade). Air temperature was the dominant factor explaining long-term stream temperature trends (82–94% of trends) and inter-annual variability (48–86% of variability), except during the summer when discharge accounted for approximately half (52%) of the inter-annual variation in stream temperatures. Seasonal temperature trends at eleven sites on regulated streams were qualitatively similar to those at unregulated sites if two sites managed to reduce summer and fall temperatures were excluded from the analysis. However, these trends were never statistically significant due to greater variation among sites that resulted from local water management policies and effects of upstream reservoirs. Despite serious deficiencies in the stream temperature monitoring record, our results suggest many streams in the northwest U.S. are exhibiting a regionally coherent response to climate forcing. More extensive monitoring efforts are needed as are techniques for short-term sensitivity analysis and reconstructing historical temperature trends so that spatial and temporal patterns of warming can be better understood. Continuation of warming trends this century will increasingly stress important regional salmon and trout resources and hamper efforts to recover these species, so comprehensive vulnerability assessments are needed to provide strategic frameworks for prioritizing conservation efforts.

Slow climate velocities of mountain streams portend their role as refugia for cold-water biodiversity

Significance Many studies predict climate change will cause widespread extinctions of flora and fauna in mountain environments because of temperature increases, enhanced environmental variability, and invasions by nonnative species. Cold-water organisms are thought to be at particularly high risk, but most predictions are based on small datasets and imprecise surrogates for water temperature trends. Using large stream temperature and biological databases, we show that thermal habitat in mountain streams is highly resistant to temperature increases and that many populations of cold-water species exist where they are well-buffered from climate change. As a result, there is hope that many native species dependent on cold water can persist this century and mountain landscapes will play an important role in that preservation. The imminent demise of montane species is a recurrent theme in the climate change literature, particularly for aquatic species that are constrained to networks and elevational rather than latitudinal retreat as temperatures increase. Predictions of widespread species losses, however, have yet to be fulfilled despite decades of climate change, suggesting that trends are much weaker than anticipated and may be too subtle for detection given the widespread use of sparse water temperature datasets or imprecise surrogates like elevation and air temperature. Through application of large water-temperature databases evaluated for sensitivity to historical air-temperature variability and computationally interpolated to provide high-resolution thermal habitat information for a 222,000-km network, we estimate a less dire thermal plight for cold-water species within mountains of the northwestern United States. Stream warming rates and climate velocities were both relatively low for 1968–2011 (average warming rate = 0.101 °C/decade; median velocity = 1.07 km/decade) when air temperatures warmed at 0.21 °C/decade. Many cold-water vertebrate species occurred in a subset of the network characterized by low climate velocities, and three native species of conservation concern occurred in extremely cold, slow velocity environments (0.33–0.48 km/decade). Examination of aggressive warming scenarios indicated that although network climate velocities could increase, they remain low in headwaters because of strong local temperature gradients associated with topographic controls. Better information about changing hydrology and disturbance regimes is needed to complement these results, but rather than being climatic cul-de-sacs, many mountain streams appear poised to be redoubts for cold-water biodiversity this century.

Spawning Demographics and Juvenile Dispersal of an Adfluvial Bull Trout Population in Trestle Creek, Idaho

Abstract We utilized a screw trap, trap-box weir, remote passive integrated transponder tag (PIT) detection weir, and otolith microchemistry to evaluate (2000–2004) spawning demographics and migration patterns of adfluvial bull trout Salvelinus confluentus in Trestle Creek, Idaho, a tributary to Lake Pend Oreille. Annual repeat spawning was more common than alternate-year spawning. Annual growth, estimated from adult bull trout PIT-tagged in 2000 and recaptured in 2001, averaged 28 mm. Peak diel movement of adult bull trout occurred after sunset. Emigration of juveniles occurred in two pulses, one in spring that was associated with snowmelt runoff and increasing water temperatures and a second in fall as stream temperatures dropped and fall rains began. Juvenile bull trout moved a mean rate of 455 m per night in 2001 and 423 m per night in 2002. Each year we trapped large numbers of age-0 bull trout that appeared to be emigrating with high spring flows. Based on otolith microchemistry, most of the 47 adul...

Effects of Habitat Area and Complexity on Colorado River Cutthroat Trout Density in Uinta Mountain Streams

Abstract Habitat degradation has reduced the complexity and connectivity of streams on the north slope of the Uinta Mountains in northeastern Utah. These changes have diminished the historical range of Colorado River cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarki pleuriticus, isolated the populations of this subspecies, and perhaps increased its risk of extinction. We assessed the effects of fragment area and habitat complexity on Colorado River cutthroat trout density. We studied 88 reaches in 4 isolated stream fragments. At the fragment scale, both the density of adults and habitat complexity increased significantly as fragment size increased. In the smaller fragments, the density of adults was lower while that of juveniles was higher. Habitat differed substantially among fragments. At the reach scale, the density of adults was positively related to elevation, the percentage of undercut banks, and mean substrate particle size and negatively related to residual pool depth and the extent of large woody debris. The d...

Population, Habitat, and Genetic Characteristics of Colorado River Cutthroat Trout in Wilderness and Nonwilderness Stream Sections in the Uinta Mountains of Utah and Wyoming

Abstract Colorado River cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarki pleuriticus, once common in the upper Green River and Colorado River watersheds, are currently limited to less than 1% of their former range and exist in isolated subdrainages in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming, We compared stream populations, habitat, and genetic features of Colorado River cutthroat trout (CRCT) in wilderness and nonwilderness areas of the Uinta mountains, Utah–Wyoming. Densities of adult CRCT were significantly higher in wilderness reaches than in nonwilderness reaches, while densities ofjuvenile fish showed no difference. Lengths and weights ofjuvenile and adult CRCT were significantly higher in wilderness reaches than in the nonwilderness reaches. Adult habitat quality, as measured by the percent pool habitat, percent undercut bank, mean particle size, and mean stream depth, was significantly higher in wilderness reaches, Large woody debris and the hydraulic retention of the stream were positively related to juvenile abundance an...

A simple protocol using underwater epoxy to install annual temperature monitoring sites in rivers and streams

Thermal regimes in rivers and streams are fundamental determinants of biological processes and are often monitored for regulatory compliance. Here, we describe a simple technique for establishing annual monitoring sites that uses underwater epoxy to attach miniature sensors to large rocks and cement bridge supports, which then serve as protective anchors. More than 500 new monitoring sites were established using the technique from 2010 to 2012 in rivers and streams across the Rocky Mountains. Revisits to 179 sites indicate good sensor retention rates, with 88 - 100% of sensors retained after 1 year in low-gradient streams (3%). Establishing annual monitoring sites with underwater epoxy is inexpensive, can be done in a wide range of water temperatures, and improves data collection efficiency because few site visits are required and measurements are recorded throughout the year.

An Evaluation of Underwater Epoxies to Permanently Install Temperature Sensors in Mountain Streams

Abstract Stream temperature regimes are of fundamental importance in understanding the patterns and processes in aquatic ecosystems, and inexpensive digital sensors provide accurate and repeated measurements of temperature. Most temperature measurements in mountain streams are made only during summer months because of logistical constraints associated with stream access and concerns that large annual floods will destroy sensor installations. We assessed six underwater epoxies to determine whether sensors could be attached to large rocks already in streams to provide durable installations and whether temperature measurements would be biased by heat conduction through the rocks. Only one of the six test epoxies bonded the sensors firmly to rock surfaces in laboratory trials. In subsequent field trials, 9 of 11 sensors attached to rocks with this epoxy successfully weathered above-average floods in four Idaho and Nevada streams in 2010. Comparisons of daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures between roc...

Climate, Demography, and Zoogeography Predict Introgression Thresholds in Salmonid Hybrid Zones in Rocky Mountain Streams

Among the many threats posed by invasions of nonnative species is introgressive hybridization, which can lead to the genomic extinction of native taxa. This phenomenon is regarded as common and perhaps inevitable among native cutthroat trout and introduced rainbow trout in western North America, despite that these taxa naturally co-occur in some locations. We conducted a synthetic analysis of 13,315 genotyped fish from 558 sites by building logistic regression models using data from geospatial stream databases and from 12 published studies of hybridization to assess whether environmental covariates could explain levels of introgression between westslope cutthroat trout and rainbow trout in the U.S. northern Rocky Mountains. A consensus model performed well (AUC, 0.78–0.86; classification success, 72–82%; 10-fold cross validation, 70–82%) and predicted that rainbow trout introgression was significantly associated with warmer water temperatures, larger streams, proximity to warmer habitats and to recent sources of rainbow trout propagules, presence within the historical range of rainbow trout, and locations further east. Assuming that water temperatures will continue to rise in response to climate change and that levels of introgression outside the historical range of rainbow trout will equilibrate with those inside that range, we applied six scenarios across a 55,234-km stream network that forecast 9.5–74.7% declines in the amount of habitat occupied by westslope cutthroat trout populations of conservation value, but not the wholesale loss of such populations. We conclude that introgression between these taxa is predictably related to environmental conditions, many of which can be manipulated to foster largely genetically intact populations of westslope cutthroat trout and help managers prioritize conservation activities.

The NorWeST Summer Stream Temperature Model and Scenarios for the Western U.S.: A Crowd-Sourced Database and New Geospatial Tools Foster a User Community and Predict Broad Climate Warming of Rivers and Streams

Thermal regimes are fundamental determinants of aquatic ecosystems, which makes description and prediction of temperatures critical during a period of rapid global change. The advent of inexpensive temperature sensors dramatically increased monitoring in recent decades, and although most monitoring is done by individuals for agency-specific purposes, collectively these efforts constitute a massive distributed sensing array that generates an untapped wealth of data. Using the framework provided by the National Hydrography Dataset, we organized temperature records from dozens of agencies in the western U.S. to create the NorWeST database that hosts >220,000,000 temperature recordings from >22,700 stream and river sites. Spatial-stream-network models were fit to a subset of those data that described mean August water temperatures (AugTw) during 63,641 monitoring site-years to develop accurate temperature models (r2 = 0.91; RMSPE = 1.10°C; MAPE = 0.72°C), assess covariate effects, and make predictions at 1 km intervals to create summer climate scenarios. AugTw averaged 14.2°C (SD = 4.0°C) during the baseline period of 1993–2011 in 343,000 km of western perennial streams but trend reconstructions also indicated warming had occurred at the rate of 0.17°C/decade (SD = 0.067°C/decade) during the 40 year period of 1976–2015. Future scenarios suggest continued warming, although variation will occur within and among river networks due to differences in local climate forcing and stream responsiveness. NorWeST scenarios and data are available online in user-friendly digital formats and are widely used to coordinate monitoring efforts among agencies, for new research, and for conservation planning.