C. Jotin Khisty

A rational reasoning method from fuzzy perceptions in route choice

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to develop a psychometric approach for making possible a more proper description of route choice behavior in transportation systems. A hybrid model that uses concepts from fuzzy logic and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is proposed. Based on Webers psycho-physical law of 1834, a set of fuzzy ‘if–then’ rules is developed to represent a typical drivers psychology for capturing essential preferences, pairwise, among the alternatives that a driver may consider. The AHP is then incorporated in this model to represent the underlying decision mechanism and to estimate drivers’ preference allotment among the alternatives. This new procedure is applied in a real-world sample based on stated values of subjects. Findings show that this method provides intuitively promising results and that can be used for explaining route choice process of drivers.

A rational approach to handling fuzzy perceptions in route choice

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to develop a heuristic way for handling fuzzy perceptions in explaining route choice behavior from behavioral point of view. A hybrid model where route choice decision making is described in a hierarchy uses concepts from fuzzy logic and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is proposed for making possible a more proper description of route choice behavior in transportation systems. Teodorovic and Kikuchi’s [Transportation route choice model using fuzzy inference technique, Paper presented at the First International Symposium on: Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis: Fuzzy Reasoning, Probabilistic Models, and Risk Management, University of College Park, Maryland, 1990, p. 140] fuzzy ‘if-then’ rules are adopted to represent a typical driver’s psychology for capturing essential preferences, pairwise, among alternatives that a driver may consider. The AHP is then incorporated in this model to capture the imaginary psychological process that represent underlying observable behavior to estimate drivers’ preference allotment among the alternatives. This new procedure is applied in a real world sample based on stated values of subjects. Findings show that this method provides intuitively and statistically promising results.

Heuristic Analysis of Impacts of Commuter Rail Station Consolidation on Pedestrian Access

A mode-of-station-access survey at the Milwaukee District North Line Grayland and Mayfair Stations in Chicago is described. The study was conducted to determine the impacts of consolidating these two stations into a single new station. Patterns of different station access modes were studied. The analysis focused on the most sensitive market segment—walkers. Two different methods were used to determine how current walkers would be affected by such a station change. The first estimate was based on changes in walking distances. A heuristic procedure was developed to estimate the number of walkers currently using the system who would possibly walk to the proposed new station. This estimate assumed that stations would attract walkers from a circular area referred to as the catchment area. The average walking distance to each station determined its catchment area size. Further assumptions were made to predict those walkers who were not currently in the catchment areas but who would decide to walk to the new station. This study provides intuitive results and methodology that show promise for use in similar situations.

Automobile Dominance and the Tragedy of the Land-Use/Transport System: Some Critical Issues

Although the automobile is the least energy-efficient, the least space-efficient, and one of the most expensive of the transport modes to operate, it has dominated our cities for the last 50 years and impaired their quality in fundamental ways. Increasing dependence on the automobile has led to such problems as severe traffic congestion, widespread air and noise pollution, increased fuel consumption, steeper infrastructure costs, and higher accident rates. Through an insidious process, this automobile domination has also encouraged the widespread development of sprawling suburbs that are the most uneconomical, environmentally degrading, and socially deplorable patterns of residential land-use development. It is demonstrated that these adverse consequences, created as a direct or indirect result of the automobile, have impaired the systemicity of the land-use/transport system, representing a modern-day example of the “tragedy of the commons.” To demonstrate whether the systemicity of land-use/transport systems can be appraised, a methodology is outlined for helping planning organizations to become cognizant of these problems and to spur major technological, policy, and behavioral changes.

Societal planning: Identifying a new role for the transport planner—Part I

Abstract It has been amply demonstrated over the last three decades that public planning is subject to rapid change and great uncertainties, both in dealing with political objectives as well as in dealing with new technologies. The Rational Planning Model (RPM), which is still the mainstay of the planning process, is becoming increasingly problematic. After an introduction about the planning of complex systems and planning approaches, this paper examines three topics: (1) the question of rationality and uncertainty; (2) the relationship between rationality and meta‐methodology; and (3) a new role for the planner, both as a technician and as an effective communicator. In the paper the notion of ‘unbounded uncertainty’ is set forth as a relevant concept. The concept is used collectively to point to and explain the many obstacles faced by planners in carrying out planning as prescribed by the RPM. It is concluded that acceptance of planning as essentially tied to such unbounded uncertainly indicates the need...

Sustainable development footprint: a framework for assessing sustainable development risks and opportunities in time and space

This paper elaborates a framework, the sustainable development footprint, that can be used to assess progress in sustainable development in space and time. The framework views sustainability as consisting of the entire stock of its capital (natural and derived) and the rate of use of this stock to develop human (or other types) capital relative to the rates of regeneration of its capital stocks. The framework discusses three key forms of capital: economic, natural and human. The paper uses the framework to analyse variation in sustainable development status among 35 countries. The results show that sustainable development status, in particular its opportunities and risks, varies in relation to dynamics in economic, environmental and human capital. This framework provides a tool that nations, cities and other administrative units can use to evaluate their sustainability progress from time to time, in order to direct their resources and development in a manner that is supportive of the goals of sustainable development. The framework and illustration are potentially useful to decision makers and researchers making efforts to maximise the opportunities and minimise the risks as they advance sustainable development in international, national and local contexts.

Waterway traffic analysis of the Chicago River and lock

The vessel-carrying capacity of the Chicago River, Illinois, is restricted by a lock. separating the river from Lake Michigan. Currently, vessels passing through the lock experience long delays during summer months. An investigation and analysis of this system determined that although the system is now generally operating below capacity, the peak periods during summer weekends do approach capacity, and the situation is likely to deteriorate in the future. In addition, the river and lock have safety and traffic conflict problems that need attention. Recommendations to mitigate these problems are described.

Sustainable Transport Development in Developing Countries

The all-encompassing issue for transport professionals in the closing years of this century is sustainability and its links with economic growth, consumption, and the environment, and there can hardly be any understanding of their mutual growth other than global and systemic, particularly with respect to the developing world. The reason for this is that in comparison to the developed world, the need for transport systems improvement in the developing world is much more intense, with motorized transport (MT) estimated to increase by more than 100 percent in the next ten years (World Bank, 1986). What is most alarming is that a majority of transport policy-makers in developing countries believe that a higher rate of MT is vital for economic development, at the expense of non-motorized transport (NMT). This trend is changing more and more cities in the developing world into unlivable precincts, with horrendous problems of traffic congestion, safety, and environmental damage. Governments in these countries are facing serious challenges to keep people and goods moving, with no relief in sight. The objectives of this paper are: to describe the nature of sustainable transport systems, to briefly outline the transport modes and their characteristics, to spell out the new transport paradigm, and to suggest the more critical strategies for sustainability.