Carlos Eduardo Caldarelli

Fatores de influência no preço do milho no Brasil

The objective of this paper is to understand the dynamics of the Brazilian corn market by investigating the main factors affecting volumes and prices. Unit roots tests were taken using the DF-GLS - Dickey Fuller Generalized Least Square methodology, and Johansens co-integration tests (1988). The estimated model for price adjustment was a Self-Regression Vector Error Correction Model – VEC, with identification by the Sims-Bernanke procedure. We conclude that there is a significant interaction between the corn and the soybean markets, which present a complementary relationship on the supply side and substitution relationship on the demand side. Additionally, we conclude that macroeconomic factors such as income and interest rates are important in determining corn prices for producers and on the wholesale market. It should be noted that external grain prices play a relatively important role in formation of domestic corn prices.

Impactos socioeconômicos da expansão do setor sucroenergético no Estado de São Paulo, entre 2005 e 2009

O objetivo deste estudo e identificar os impactos socioeconomicos do crescimento do setor sucroenergetico no Estado de Sao Paulo. Para tanto, foram utilizados dados em painel abrangendo todos os municipios, entre os anos de 2005 a 2009, sendo o modelo ajustado com procedimentos alternativos dessa metodologia. Os citados impactos foram avaliados considerando os aspectos de emprego/renda, educacao e saude. Foram analisados tambem os impactos do crescimento do setor sucroenergetico sobre essas variaveis tomadas de forma agregada, para o indice consolidado de desenvolvimento. Os resultados do estudo permitem concluir que existe interacao positiva e significativa entre a expansao do setor sucroenergeticono Estado de Sao Paulo e o emprego/renda. Todavia, nao foram observadas evidencias acerca do efeito expressivo da expansao do setor sobre a educacao e a saude.

Modelo de Análise da Oferta de Exportação de Milho Brasileira: 2001 a 2012

This study aims to estimate the corn export supply function for Brazil from 2001 to 2012. For this analysis we developed a theoretical model estimated using the cointegration and vector error correction model (VEC). The variables used were: corn exports, international corn price, poultry slaughters, soybean prices and world GDP. The results obtained showed the existence of long-term relationship between the variables. The international corn price, poultry slaughters, soybean prices and world GDP had a significant impact on corn exports, showing signs as expected by the theoretical model. There was a positive impact on corn exports after an unanticipated shock in the soybean price and negative impact after a not anticipated shock the slaughter of poultry. In relation to the international price, it was found that a shock in this variable has a negative impact on corn exports. In order to assess the relationships between the domestic price and the international price of corn, there was the weak exogeneity test between the variables and it was found that, despite this market still does not have the Law of One Price, changes in the international corn price affect the domestic price.

Sugarcane Industry in Brazil: Different Impacts for Distinct Municipalities Development Patterns

The increased demand for ethanol in Brazil and the international interest in alternative energy sources and less environmentally harmful fuels stimulated a significant growth in Brazilian sugarcane, sugar and ethanol production, with the expansion of sugarcane agricultural area and new processing units of ethanol and sugar. This Chapter assesses the socioeconomic impacts of this recent sugarcane industry expansion over five years, from 2005 through 2009. For this purpose, a panel data analysis was developed considering socioeconomic impacts on different levels of municipalities’ development. The results suggested that sugarcane, sugar and ethanol production can improve socioeconomic indicators, mainly in municipalities that have low and medium level of development, besides the environmental ethanol benefits widely discussed in the literature. These findings indicate that public policies for the sector should consider socioeconomic aspects, both in Brazil as in other developing nations.

Efeitos das variações cambiais sobre os preços da carne de frango no Brasil entre 2008 e 2012

This paper investigates the ratio between real exchange rate and chicken meat prices in Brazil, from 2008 to 2012. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was applied. The results show a long-run ratio between the real exchange rate and the frozen broiler price – cointegration. However, evidences of the chicken meat price sensibility to the exchange rate are weak for the analyzed period. On the other hand, the paper suggests the evidence of the commodity currency. The paper highlights the importance of analyzing effects of the frozen chick meat on exchange rate in Brazil in the recent period.