Carlos J. de Miguel

A CGE framework to evaluate policy options for reducing air pollution emissions in Chile

Successful economic growth in Chile based on open market and export strategy, is characterized by a high dependence on natural resources, and by polluting production and consumption patterns. There is an increasing concern about the need to make potentially significant trade-offs between economic growth and environmental improvements. Additionally, policy makers have been reluctant to impose standards that could have regressive consequences, making the poor poorer. Using the CGE model ECOGEM-Chile we study the direct and indirect effects of imposing environmental taxes in Chile for PM-10 as well as taxes on fuels. We analyze the effects over macroeconomic variables as well as sectoral, distributive, and environmental variables. The results show that the most significant impacts are on emissions and sectoral outputs. There are winners and losers. Macroeconomic and distributional impacts are low when low emission reductions are required, however they can be significant if a 50% reduction in emissions are imposed.

La economía del cambio climático en el Perú

Este estudio aborda como el cambio climatico afectaria la actividad economica nacional, evaluando las potenciales modificaciones en la disponibilidad de los recursos naturales y las actividades productivas mas sensibles a cambios en el clima (agricultura, ganaderia altoandina, mineria, energia hidroelectrica, turismo y pesca), tanto en terminos fisicos como sociales. Tambien se analizan dos sectores transversales, la infraestructura y la salud, que son condicionantes para el desempeno productivo. El citado documento es resultado de una investigacion a nivel de pais basada en la metodologia establecida en el Informe Stern (2007). Asi, mediante el uso de escenarios y modelos climaticos globales, los impactos economicos del calentamiento global en la economia del Peru se calculan como la diferencia entre el PBI con ausencia y presencia del cambio climatico, en un periodo de analisis que se extiende hasta el ano 2100. Ademas de caracterizar los principales impactos sectoriales, se identifican opciones de adaptacion y mitigacion que contribuyan al desarrollo sostenible del pais.