Mauricio Pereira

The Socioeconomic and environmental effects of free trade agreements: a dynamic CGE analysis for Chile

This paper undertakes a quantitative analysis of the socioeconomic and environmental impacts of different trade agreements for Chile. A dynamic general equilibrium model is used to compare the consequences of unilateral liberalization and trade agreements with the European Union (EU) and the United States (USA). The results show that economic gains under the trade agreements are only significant if foreign investment increases or value added taxes are modified. Winners and losers depend on the agreement; however, unskilled labor-intensive sectors always progress. Consequently, these agreements seem to be good for the poorest groups. Some natural resource intensive sectors significantly increase their production with the EU and the US agreements, also increasing the environmental pressures. CO 2 and PM-10 emissions are not very different under these agreements as compared to business as usual – under which environmental pressures increase significantly. The results show the importance of economy-wide analysis of trade agreements in developing contexts.

La economía del cambio climático en el Perú

Este estudio aborda como el cambio climatico afectaria la actividad economica nacional, evaluando las potenciales modificaciones en la disponibilidad de los recursos naturales y las actividades productivas mas sensibles a cambios en el clima (agricultura, ganaderia altoandina, mineria, energia hidroelectrica, turismo y pesca), tanto en terminos fisicos como sociales. Tambien se analizan dos sectores transversales, la infraestructura y la salud, que son condicionantes para el desempeno productivo. El citado documento es resultado de una investigacion a nivel de pais basada en la metodologia establecida en el Informe Stern (2007). Asi, mediante el uso de escenarios y modelos climaticos globales, los impactos economicos del calentamiento global en la economia del Peru se calculan como la diferencia entre el PBI con ausencia y presencia del cambio climatico, en un periodo de analisis que se extiende hasta el ano 2100. Ademas de caracterizar los principales impactos sectoriales, se identifican opciones de adaptacion y mitigacion que contribuyan al desarrollo sostenible del pais.