Marcos Tostes Lamonica

Crescimento e industrialização no Brasil: uma interpretação à luz das propostas de Kaldor

Growth and industrialization in Brazil. In this paper, based on the writings of Kaldor and his followers, we compare two phases of Brazilian economic growth, one showing fast growth rate and other with lack of growth. Our aim is to analyze the Brazilian economic behavior in the last 40 years, pointing out economic policy intervention, structural change, foreign trade and capital flows as determinants to account for gross product development path performance. Our aim is to shed some light on which is the potential rate of growth of the Brazilian economy nowadays, considering its historical growth path and recent structural changes in the industrial sector.

Accumulation pattern of the Brazilian economy in the 1990s and 2000s

This paper investigates the dynamic relationships among income distribution, debt ratio and capital accumulation in the Brazilian economy in the 1990s and 2000s. One explanation for the relatively slow growth of the Brazilian economy is the relatively low rate of investment. The paper presents an econometric model, based on Nishi, to investigate the causes of instability in investment in the period. It concludes that the Brazilian economy since the economic opening presents a debt-burdened pattern of capital accumulation.

Policy space in a financially integrated world: The Brazilian case in the 2000s

This paper makes the argument that policy space in Brazil has been narrowing since the trade and capital opening made in the 1990s. This is so because the opening of the Brazilian economy has implied that real and nominal interest rates have been kept high and the real exchange rate has shown a trend towards appreciation. The behavior of the main macroeconomic prices of the Brazilian economy brought, as a minimum, two negative results to economic growth. On one hand, the annual average growth rate was reduced because structural change had been moving towards less technologically productive sectors, which deepened deindustrialization. On the other hand, short-term economic growth had become more volatile, given that the evolution of the investment position of the country increased its potential degree of external fragility. Key words: Policy space, Brazilian economy, Balance of payment dominance.JEL: O11, O14. Politicki prostor u finansijski integrisanom svetu: slucaj Brazila 2000-ihU radu je argumentovano da se politicki prostor u Brazilu sužava od uvođenja trgovinske i kapitalne otvorenosti tokom 1990-ih. To je tako zato sto je otvaranje brazilske ekonomije impliciralo da su realne i nominalne kamatne stope držane na visokom nivou i da je realni devizni kurs pokazao trend ka apresijaciji. Ponasanje osnovnih makroekonomskih cena brazilske privrede dovelo je do, najmanje, dva negativna ishoda po ekonomski rast. S jedne strane, godisnja prosecna stopa rasta je smanjena zato sto su se strukturne promene kretale ka manje tehnoloski produktivnim sektorima, sto je produbilo deindustriјalizaciju. S druge strane, kratkorocni ekonomski rast je postao nestabilniji, s obzirom na to da je razvoj investicione pozicije zemlje povecao njen potencijalni stepen spoljne osetljivosti.Kljucne reci: Politicki prostor, brazilska ekonomija, dominacija platnog bilansa.

Manufacturing Industry and Growth: An Interpretation for the Performance of the Brazilian Economy in the1990s and 2000s

The loss of importance of the manufacturing industry in GDP greatly explains the poor performance of the Brazilian economy in the last two decades, despite the improvement in the standard of living of the population. In this chapter, it is assumed that the growth of developing economies is associated with structural change, and its dynamism depends on how the stimuli from aggregate demand are transmitted to the productive structure to promote change toward the development of productive sectors with the greatest potential to add value. In this sense, a virtuous growth cycle, in Myrdal and Kaldor terms, will emerge if short-term economic polices allow policy space for the implementation of long-term developmental policies, which has not been observed in the Brazilian case in the 1990s and 2000s.

WHY DOES THE INVESTMENT RATE DO NOT INCREASE? CAPITAL ACCUMULATION AND STABILIZATION POLICY IN THE 1990S AND 2000S IN BRAZIL

ABSTRACT The stabilization of inflation was conquered in the mid-1990s, but since then the Brazilian economy has not shown a stable growth trend. This article discusses how the maintenance of a high interest rate in Brazil has affected growth through its impact on investment decision. In a macroeconomic environment with a relatively high degree of uncertainty, decisions to accumulate capital rely heavily on retained earnings and are negatively affected by the persistent high level of interest rates. Our econometric exercise reveals that the interest rate is the most important variable to explain the investment rate, and that financialization negatively impacts physical capital accumulation.

Trajetória de crescimento da economia brasileira e mudança estrutural de 1971 a 2008: uma interpretação a partir do framework space

O objetivo do texto e analisar a trajetoria de crescimento da economia brasileira dos anos de 1970 ate 2008, considerando as flutuacoes do investimento e da produtividade como determinantes do comportamento dessa trajetoria. Assim, identificamos e qualificamos diferentes fases ou caminhos de crescimento compondo a trajetoria de longo prazo. O comportamento oscilatorio dessa trajetoria tem sido atribuido a conjecturas de varias naturezas; aqui enfatizaremos as mudancas nas politicas economicas e seus efeitos sobre a estrutura produtiva via mudanca estrutural induzida que repercute na dinâmica observada. Apoiados na visao kaldoriana e neo-schumpeteriana introduziremos o Framework Space como instrumento de analise da dinâmica da trajetoria de crescimento economico do Brasil.