Caroline E. Farrior

Evolutionarily Stable Strategy Carbon Allocation to Foliage, Wood, and Fine Roots in Trees Competing for Light and Nitrogen: An Analytically Tractable, Individual-Based Model and Quantitative Comparisons to Data

We present a model that scales from the physiological and structural traits of individual trees competing for light and nitrogen across a gradient of soil nitrogen to their community-level consequences. The model predicts the most competitive (i.e., the evolutionarily stable strategy [ESS]) allocations to foliage, wood, and fine roots for canopy and understory stages of trees growing in old-growth forests. The ESS allocations, revealed as analytical functions of commonly measured physiological parameters, depend not on simple root-shoot relations but rather on diminishing returns of carbon investment that ensure any alternate strategy will underperform an ESS in monoculture because of the competitive environment that the ESS creates. As such, ESS allocations do not maximize nitrogen-limited growth rates in monoculture, highlighting the underappreciated idea that the most competitive strategy is not necessarily the “best,” but rather that which creates conditions in which all others are “worse.” Data from 152 stands support the model’s surprising prediction that the dominant structural trade-off is between fine roots and wood, not foliage, suggesting the “root-shoot” trade-off is more precisely a “root-stem” trade-off for long-lived trees. Assuming other resources are abundant, the model predicts that forests are limited by both nitrogen and light, or nearly so.

Resource limitation in a competitive context determines complex plant responses to experimental resource additions

Almost all models of plant resource limitation are grounded in either one or both of two simple conceptual models: Liebigs Minimum Hypothesis (LMH), the idea that plants are limited by the resource in shortest supply, and the Multiple Limitation Hypothesis (MLH), the idea that plants should adjust to their environment so that all essential resources are equally limiting. Despite the differences in their predictions, experiments have so far failed to discriminate between them. In a simple factorial nitrogen and water addition experiment in a Minnesota grassland, we observed shifts in allocation that, as in previous studies, are not all explained by a single theory. We found that leaf biomass responded positively to nitrogen additions but did not respond to water additions. We found that fine-root biomass increased in response to water additions, but only at low nitrogen levels, and that fine-root biomass decreased in response to nitrogen additions, but only at high water levels. To understand these responses we built a physiologically based model of plant competition for water, nitrogen, and space to predict plant allocation to fine roots and leaves. Critically, we include in our model the inherent variability of soil moisture and treat light, water, and nitrogen as resources with distinct mechanistic roles. Experimental results showed that plants were nitrogen and water limited. The model explains the experimental results, under conditions of co-limitation, as follows. Foliage increases with nitrogen additions but not water additions because leaf construction is constrained by nitrogen uptake. When water is added, plants spend a larger fraction of the growing season limited by light (and effectively nitrogen) than by water. Thus, water additions cause fine-root biomass to increase because of the increased importance of nitrogen limitation. The response of fine-root biomass to water additions decreases with nitrogen additions because these additions reduce nitrogen limitation. In general, our results are explained by sequential resource limitation. The rate of carbon assimilation may be limited by a single resource at any one moment, but the identity of the limiting resource(s) changes throughout the growing season.

Competition for Water and Light in Closed-Canopy Forests: A Tractable Model of Carbon Allocation with Implications for Carbon Sinks

The dependence of forest productivity and community composition on rainfall is the result of complex interactions at multiple scales, from the physiology of carbon gain and water loss to competition among individuals and species. In an effort to understand the role of these multiscale interactions in the dependence of forest structure on rainfall, we build a tractable model of individual plant competition for water and light. With game-theoretic analyses, we predict the dominant plant allocation strategy, forest productivity, and carbon storage. We find that the amount and timing of rainfall are critical to forest structure. Comparing two forests that differ only in the total time plants spend in water saturation, the model predicts that the wetter forest has fewer fine roots, more leaves, and more woody biomass than the drier forest. In contrast, if two forests differ only in the amount of water available during water limitation, the model predicts that the wetter forest has more fine roots than the drier forest and equivalent leaves and woody biomass. The difference in these responses to increases in water availability has significant implications for potential carbon sinks with rising atmospheric CO2. We predict that enhanced productivity from increased leaf-level water-use efficiency during water limitation will be allocated to fine roots if plants respond competitively, producing only a small and short-lived carbon sink.

Vegetation Demographics in Earth System Models: a review of progress and priorities

Numerous current efforts seek to improve the representation of ecosystem ecology and vegetation demographic processes within Earth System Models (ESMs). These developments are widely viewed as an important step in developing greater realism in predictions of future ecosystem states and fluxes. Increased realism, however, leads to increased model complexity, with new features raising a suite of ecological questions that require empirical constraints. Here, we review the developments that permit the representation of plant demographics in ESMs, and identify issues raised by these developments that highlight important gaps in ecological understanding. These issues inevitably translate into uncertainty in model projections but also allow models to be applied to new processes and questions concerning the dynamics of real-world ecosystems. We argue that stronger and more innovative connections to data, across the range of scales considered, are required to address these gaps in understanding. The development of first-generation land surface models as a unifying framework for ecophysiological understanding stimulated much research into plant physiological traits and gas exchange. Constraining predictions at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales will require a similar investment of effort and intensified inter-disciplinary communication.

Decreased water limitation under elevated CO2 amplifies potential for forest carbon sinks

Significance With increasing atmospheric CO2 and a changing climate come changes in both plant water use efficiency and rainfall regimes. The effects of these changes on forests, including feedbacks to the carbon cycle, are complex. Through a theoretical analysis combining CO2, soil moisture dynamics, and individual-based competition in forests, we find that (i) carbon storage has a complex and significant dependence on rainfall amount and timing and (ii) the main effect of increasing CO2 in water-limited forests is a decrease in the amount of time trees spend in water limitation. This main effect is predicted to reduce competitive overinvestment in fine roots, drive competitive trees to increase investment in woody biomass, and greatly increase forest carbon storage in live biomass. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and changing rainfall regimes are creating novel environments for plant communities around the world. The resulting changes in plant productivity and allocation among tissues will have significant impacts on forest carbon storage and the global carbon cycle, yet these effects may depend on mechanisms not included in global models. Here we focus on the role of individual-level competition for water and light in forest carbon allocation and storage across rainfall regimes. We find that the complexity of plant responses to rainfall regimes in experiments can be explained by individual-based competition for water and light within a continuously varying soil moisture environment. Further, we find that elevated CO2 leads to large amplifications of carbon storage when it alleviates competition for water by incentivizing competitive plants to divert carbon from short-lived fine roots to long-lived woody biomass. Overall, we find that plant dependence on rainfall regimes and plant responses to added CO2 are complex, but understandable. The insights developed here will serve as an important foundation as we work to predict the responses of plants to the full, multidimensional reality of climate change, which involves not only changes in rainfall and CO2 but also changes in temperature, nutrient availability, and disturbance rates, among others.

Dominance of the suppressed: Power-law size structure in tropical forests

Size distributions of tropical trees The distribution of tree size in tropical forests follows a power-law regardless of location. This pattern has largely eluded mechanistic explanation. Using 30 years of tree demography and growth data from a forest plot in Panama, Farrior et al. show that the power-law size structure emerges after natural local disturbances such as the gaps formed by falling trees. A model of forest dynamics identifies the structural parameter governing the power-law distribution. A mechanistic understanding of tropical forest structural dynamics will benefit forest carbon cycling studies. Science, this issue p. 155 The consistency of tropical tree size structure is related to the frequency of small-scale disturbance and competition for light. Tropical tree size distributions are remarkably consistent despite differences in the environments that support them. With data analysis and theory, we found a simple and biologically intuitive hypothesis to explain this property, which is the foundation of forest dynamics modeling and carbon storage estimates. After a disturbance, new individuals in the forest gap grow quickly in full sun until they begin to overtop one another. The two-dimensional space-filling of the growing crowns of the tallest individuals relegates a group of losing, slow-growing individuals to the understory. Those left in the understory follow a power-law size distribution, the scaling of which depends on only the crown area–to–diameter allometry exponent: a well-conserved value across tropical forests.

Increased forest carbon storage with increased atmospheric CO2 despite nitrogen limitation: a game‐theoretic allocation model for trees in competition for nitrogen and light

Changes in resource availability often cause competitively driven changes in tree allocation to foliage, wood, and fine roots, either via plastic changes within individuals or through turnover of individuals with differing strategies. Here, we investigate how optimally competitive tree allocation should change in response to elevated atmospheric CO2 along a gradient of nitrogen and light availability, together with how those changes should affect carbon storage in living biomass. We present a physiologically-based forest model that includes the primary functions of wood and nitrogen. From a trees perspective, wood is an offensive and defensive weapon used against neighbors in competition for light. From a biogeochemical perspective, wood is the primary living reservoir of stored carbon. Nitrogen constitutes a trees photosynthetic machinery and the support systems for that machinery, and its limited availability thus reduces a trees ability to fix carbon. This model has been previously successful in predicting allocation to foliage, wood, and fine roots along natural productivity gradients. Using game theory, we solve the model for competitively optimal foliage, wood, and fine root allocation strategies for trees in competition for nitrogen and light as a function of CO2 and nitrogen mineralization rate. Instead of down-regulating under nitrogen limitation, carbon storage under elevated CO2 relative to carbon storage at ambient CO2 is approximately independent of the nitrogen mineralization rate. This surprising prediction is a consequence of both increased competition for nitrogen driving increased fine root biomass and increased competition for light driving increased allocation to wood under elevated CO2 .

Interspecific vs intraspecific patterns in leaf nitrogen of forest trees across nitrogen availability gradients

Leaf nitrogen content (δ) coordinates with total canopy N and leaf area index (LAI) to maximize whole-crown carbon (C) gain, but the constraints and contributions of within-species plasticity to this phenomenon are poorly understood. Here, we introduce a game theoretic, physiologically based community model of height-structured competition between late-successional tree species. Species are constrained by an increasing, but saturating, relationship between photosynthesis and leaf N per unit leaf area. Higher saturating rates carry higher fixed costs. For a given whole-crown N content, a C gain-maximizing compromise exists between δ and LAI. With greater whole-crown N, both δ and LAI increase within species. However, a shift in community composition caused by reduced understory light at high soil N availability (which competitively favors species with low leaf costs and consequent low optimal δ) counteracts the within-species response, such that community-level δ changes little with soil N availability. These model predictions provide a new explanation for the changes in leaf N per mass observed in data from three dominant broadleaf species in temperate deciduous forests of New England. Attempts to understand large-scale patterns in vegetation often omit competitive interactions and intraspecific plasticity, but here both are essential to an understanding of ecosystem-level patterns.

Competitive optimization models, attempting to understand the diversity of life

The complex interplay between the abiotic and biotic components of plant communities is precisely whatmakes them so fascinating to study. This complexity, however, is also what makes building predictive models of plant responses to climate change particularly difficult. Prediction into the novel environmental conditions that climate change brings requires mechanistic understanding of the scaling of abiotic and biotic feedbacks from individual plants to the landscape level. In this issue of New Phytologist, van Loon et al. (pp. 1253–1265) have taken on this challenge for soybean plants in competition for light. They have built a model that includes the physiology needed for quantitative predictions, while also including the influence of competitive plant interactions on determining dominant individual strategies. This model accurately predicts the response of soybean plants to experimental manipulations of atmospheric CO2 and, through comparison of model scenarios, shows quite clearly the importance of individual-based competitive interactions in predictive models of plant responses to climate change.

Predicting vegetation type through physiological and environmental interactions with leaf traits: evergreen and deciduous forests in an earth system modeling framework

Earth system models are incorporating plant trait diversity into their land components to better predict vegetation dynamics in a changing climate. However, extant plant trait distributions will not allow extrapolations to novel community assemblages in future climates, which will require a mechanistic understanding of the trade-offs that determine trait diversity. In this study, we show how physiological trade-offs involving leaf mass per unit area (LMA), leaf lifespan, leaf nitrogen, and leaf respiration may explain the distribution patterns of evergreen and deciduous trees in the temperate and boreal zones based on (1) an evolutionary analysis of a simple mathematical model and (2) simulation experiments of an individual-based dynamic vegetation model (i.e., LM3-PPA). The evolutionary analysis shows that these leaf traits set up a trade-off between carbon- and nitrogen-use efficiency at the scale of individual trees and therefore determine competitively dominant leaf strategies. As soil nitrogen availability increases, the dominant leaf strategy switches from one that is high in nitrogen-use efficiency to one that is high in carbon-use efficiency or, equivalently, from high-LMA/long-lived leaves (i.e., evergreen) to low-LMA/short-lived leaves (i.e., deciduous). In a region of intermediate soil nitrogen availability, the dominant leaf strategy may be either deciduous or evergreen depending on the initial conditions of plant trait abundance (i.e., founder controlled) due to feedbacks of leaf traits on soil nitrogen mineralization through litter quality. Simulated successional patterns by LM3-PPA from the leaf physiological trade-offs are consistent with observed successional dynamics of evergreen and deciduous forests at three sites spanning the temperate to boreal zones.