Caterina Hill

The effects of high HIV prevalence on orphanhood and living arrangements of children in Malawi, Tanzania, and South Africa

Using longitudinal data from three demographic surveillance systems (DSS) and a retrospective cohort study, we estimate levels and trends in the prevalence and incidence of orphanhood in South Africa, Tanzania, and Malawi in the period 1988–2004. The prevalence of maternal, paternal, and double orphans rose in all three populations. In South Africa—where the HIV epidemic started later, has been very severe, and has not yet stabilized—the incidence of orphanhood among children is double that of the other populations. The living arrangements of children vary considerably between the populations, particularly in relation to fathers. Patterns of marriage, migration, and adult mortality influence the living and care arrangements of orphans and non-orphans. DSS data provide new insights into the impact of adult mortality on children, challenging several widely held assumptions. For example, we find no evidence that the prevalence of child-headed households is significant or has increased in the three study areas.

Hiding in the shadows of the HIV epidemic: obesity and hypertension in a rural population with very high HIV prevalence in South Africa

Hiding in the shadows of the HIV epidemic: obesity and hypertension in a rural population with very high HIV prevalence in South Africa

Population and antenatal-based HIV prevalence estimates in a high contracepting female population in rural South Africa

BackgroundTo present and compare population-based and antenatal-care (ANC) sentinel surveillance HIV prevalence estimates among women in a rural South African population where both provision of ANC services and family planning is prevalent and fertility is declining. With a need, in such settings, to understand how to appropriately adjust ANC sentinel surveillance estimates to represent HIV prevalence in general populations, and with evidence of possible biases inherent to both surveillance systems, we explore differences between the two systems. There is particular emphasis on unrepresentative selection of ANC clinics and unrepresentative testing in the population.MethodsHIV sero-prevalence amongst blood samples collected from women consenting to test during the 2005 annual longitudinal population-based serological survey was compared to anonymous unlinked HIV sero-prevalence amongst women attending antenatal care (ANC) first visits in six clinics (January to May 2005). Both surveillance systems were conducted as part of the Africa Centre Demographic Information System.ResultsPopulation-based HIV prevalence estimates for all women (25.2%) and pregnant women (23.7%) were significantly lower than that for ANC attendees (37.7%). A large proportion of women attending urban or peri-urban clinics would be predicted to be resident within rural areas. Although overall estimates remained significantly different, presenting and standardising estimates by age and location (clinic for ANC-based estimates and individual-residence for population-based estimates) made some group-specific estimates from the two surveillance systems more predictive of one another.ConclusionIt is likely that where ANC coverage and contraceptive use is widespread and fertility is low, population-based surveillance under-estimates HIV prevalence due to unrepresentative testing by age, residence and also probably by HIV status, and that ANC sentinel surveillance over-estimates prevalence due to selection bias in terms of age of sexual debut and contraceptive use. The results presented highlight the importance of accounting for unrepresentative testing, particularly by individual residence and age, through system design and statistical analyses.

Insurance status and hospital discharge disposition after trauma: Inequities in access to postacute care

BACKGROUND Postacute care is an essential component of medical care aimed at returning trauma patients to their preinjury functional status. Rehabilitation services, skilled nursing facilities, and home care all play a role in facilitating the healing process. Access to such care may be limited based on insurance status, leaving the uninsured with limited resources to reach full recovery. We hypothesized that access to specialized postacute care is less available to patients who lack health insurance. METHODS A retrospective cohort of trauma patients in the National Trauma Databank from 2002 to 2006 was assessed to determine whether insurance status was a predictor of discharge to a specialized postacute care facility (rehabilitation, skilled nursing facilities, and home health). Using multivariate logistic regression, we assessed the likelihood of discharge to such facilities on the basis of insurance status, controlling for patient demographics and injury severity. RESULTS Adjusting for variation in age, race/ethicity, gender, and injury type and severity, uninsured patients had the lowest odds of being discharged to a skilled nursing facility (odds ratio [OR], 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73-0.80; p<0.001), home health (OR, 0.51; 95% CI 0.49-0.53; p<0.001), and rehabilitation (OR, 0.45; 95% CI 0.44-0.46; p<0.001). Uninsured patients had the highest odds, however, of being discharged directly home (OR, 1.32; 95% CI 1.30-1.34; p<0.001). CONCLUSION Insurance status is an important predictor of hospital disposition and access to specialized posthospital care. Uninsured patients are less likely to have access to the full range of medical care available to ensure complete recovery from traumatic injuries.

Monitoring the emergence of community transmission of influenza A/H1N1 2009 in England: a cross sectional opportunistic survey of self sampled telephone callers to NHS Direct

Objective To evaluate ascertainment of the onset of community transmission of influenza A/H1N1 2009 (swine flu) in England during the earliest phase of the epidemic through comparing data from two surveillance systems. Design Cross sectional opportunistic survey. Study samples Results from self samples by consenting patients who had called the NHS Direct telephone health line with cold or flu symptoms, or both, and results from Health Protection Agency (HPA) regional microbiology laboratories on patients tested according to the clinical algorithm for the management of suspected cases of swine flu. Setting Six regions of England between 24 May and 30 June 2009. Main outcome measure Proportion of specimens with laboratory evidence of influenza A/H1N1 2009. Results Influenza A/H1N1 2009 infections were detected in 91 (7%) of the 1385 self sampled specimens tested. In addition, eight instances of influenza A/H3 infection and two cases of influenza B infection were detected. The weekly rate of change in the proportions of infected individuals according to self obtained samples closely matched the rate of increase in the proportions of infected people reported by HPA regional laboratories. Comparing the data from both systems showed that local community transmission was occurring in London and the West Midlands once HPA regional laboratories began detecting 100 or more influenza A/H1N1 2009 infections, or a proportion positive of over 20% of those tested, each week. Conclusions Trends in the proportion of patients with influenza A/H1N1 2009 across regions detected through clinical management were mirrored by the proportion of NHS Direct callers with laboratory confirmed infection. The initial concern that information from HPA regional laboratory reports would be too limited because it was based on testing patients with either travel associated risk or who were contacts of other influenza cases was unfounded. Reports from HPA regional laboratories could be used to recognise the extent to which local community transmission was occurring.

Coming home to die? the association between migration and mortality in rural South Africa

BackgroundStudies on migration often ignore the health and social impact of migrants returning to their rural communities. Several studies have shown migrants to be particularly susceptible to HIV infection. This paper investigates whether migrants to rural households have a higher risk of dying, especially from HIV, than non-migrants.MethodsUsing data from a large and ongoing Demographic Surveillance System, 41,517 adults, enumerated in bi-annual rounds between 2001 and 2005, and aged 18 to 60 years were categorized into four groups: external in-migrants, internal migrants, out-migrants and residents. The risk of dying by migration status was quantified by Cox proportional hazard regression. In a sub-group analysis of 1212 deaths which occurred in 2000 – 2001 and for which cause of death information was available, the relationship between migration status and dying from AIDS was examined in logistic regression.ResultsIn all, 618 deaths were recorded among 7,867 external in-migrants, 255 among 4,403 internal migrants, 310 among 11,476 out-migrants and 1900 deaths were registered among 17,771 residents. External in-migrants were 28% more likely to die than residents [adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) = 1.28, P < 0.001, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) (1.16, 1.41)]. In the sub-group analysis, the odds of dying from AIDS was 1.79 [adjusted Odd ratio (aOR) = 1.79, P = 0.009, 95% CI (1.15, 2.78)] for external in-migrants compared to residents; there was no statistically significant difference in AIDS mortality between residents and out-migrants, [aOR = 1.25, P = 0.533, 95% CI (0.62–2.53)]. Independently, females were more likely to die from AIDS than males [aOR = 2.35, P < 0.001, 95% CI (1.79, 3.08)].ConclusionExternal in-migrants have a higher risk of dying, especially from HIV related causes, than residents, and in areas with substantial migration this needs to be taken into account in evaluating mortality statistics and planning health care services.

Insights into the rise in HIV infections, 2001 to 2008: a Bayesian synthesis of prevalence evidence.

Objective:To estimate trends in prevalence of HIV infection, undiagnosed and total, among adults aged 15–44 years in England and Wales since 2001. Design:Multiple surveillance systems and survey data are available to inform different aspects of the HIV epidemic in England and Wales. To coherently and consistently combine this information to estimate trends in HIV prevalence, we apply a multiparameter evidence synthesis in a Bayesian statistical framework. Methods:The study population is stratified by exposure group and region of residence. We synthesize data from behavioural and community surveys, unlinked anonymous seroprevalence surveys, and an annual survey of individuals with diagnosed HIV infection. Prevalence estimates are given with 95% credible intervals. Results:The estimated number of prevalent HIV infections in 15–44-year-olds has increased from 32 400 (29 600–35 900) in 2001 to 54 500 (50 500–59 100) in 2008, corresponding to an estimated prevalence of 1.5 per 1000 (1.4–1.7) rising to 2.4 per 1000 (2.3–2.6) in 2008. A rise in prevalence of diagnosed infection contributes substantially to the increase. There is no evidence of a statistically significant decrease in the prevalence of undiagnosed infection. The proportion of infections that are diagnosed has therefore also increased. Conclusion:Although the increase in the proportion of infections that are diagnosed is encouraging, the rise in HIV prevalence and lack of evidence of a decrease in prevalence of undiagnosed infection suggest that diagnosis rates are not high enough to reduce the pool of individuals unaware of their infection and that new infections must be occurring.

Mobile Clinic In Massachusetts Associated With Cost Savings From Lowering Blood Pressure And Emergency Department Use

Mobile health clinics are in increasingly wide use, but evidence of their clinical impact or cost-effectiveness is limited. Using a unique data set of 5,900 patients who made a total of 10,509 visits in 2010-12 to the Family Van, an urban mobile health clinic in Massachusetts, we examined the effect of screenings and counseling provided by the clinic on blood pressure. Patients who presented with high blood pressure during their initial visit experienced average reductions of 10.7 mmHg and 6.2 mmHg in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, respectively, during their follow-up visits. These changes were associated with 32.2 percent and 44.6 percent reductions in the relative risk of myocardial infarction and stroke, respectively, which we converted into savings using estimates of the incidence and costs of these conditions over thirty months. The savings from this reduction in blood pressure and patient-reported avoided emergency department visits produced a positive lower bound for the clinics return on investment of 1.3. All other services of the clinic-those aimed at diabetes, obesity, and maternal health, for example-were excluded from this lower-bound estimate. Policy makers should consider mobile clinics as a delivery model for underserved communities with poor health status and high use of emergency departments.

THE IMPACT IN THE UK OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN HIV EPIDEMICS

Despite increasing migration, the impact of HIV epidemics from Central and Eastern Europe (C&EE) on the UK HIV epidemic remains small. C&EE-born adults comprised 1.2% of adults newly diagnosed with HIV in the UK between 2000 and 2007. Most C&EE-born women probably acquired their infection heterosexually in C&EE. In contrast, 59% of C&EE-born men reported sex with men, half of whom probably acquired their infection in the UK. Previously undiagnosed HIV prevalence in C&EE-born sexual-health-clinic attendees was low (2007, 0.5%) as was overall HIV prevalence in C&EE-born women giving birth in England (2007, <0.1%). The high proportion of men who have sex with men (MSM) suggests under-reporting of this group in C&EE HIV statistics and/or migration of MSM to the UK. In addition to reducing HIV transmission in injecting drug users, preventative efforts aimed at C&EE-born MSM both within their country of origin and the UK are required.

Mobilizing a Narrative of Generosity: Patient Experiences on an Urban Mobile Health Clinic

Mobile health clinics address the health needs of underserved populations by bringing healthcare to patients’ communities. Mobile health clinics find unique ways to treat patients and empower them to take control of their health. In this article, we examine how patients who use an urban mobile health clinic narrate their experiences on the clinic and what they see as the impact of the clinic on the community. A narrative of generosity emerged from the interviews, where patients believe the mobile health clinic creates a sense of welcome, encourages patients to become active participants in their health, and fosters a “pay it forward” attitude among community members.