Cathy S. Ross

The association of perioperative red blood cell transfusions and decreased long-term survival after cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to red blood cell (RBC) transfusions has been associated with increased mortality after cardiac surgery. We examined long-term survival for cardiac surgical patients who received one or two RBC units during index hospitalization. METHODS: Nine thousand seventy-nine consecutive patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft, valve, or coronary artery bypass graft/valve surgery at eight centers in northern New England during 2001-2004 were examined after exclusions. A probabilistic match between the regional registry and the Social Security Administration’s Death Master File determined mortality through June 30, 2006. Cox Proportional Hazard and propensity methods were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios. RESULTS: Thirty-six percent of patients (n = 3254) were exposed to one or two RBC units. Forty-three percent of RBCs were given intraoperatively, 56% in the postoperative period and 1% were preoperative. Patients transfused were more likely to be anemic, older, smaller, female and with more comorbid illness. Survival was significantly decreased for all patients exposed to 1 or 2 U of RBCs during hospitalization for cardiac surgery compared with those who received none (P < 0.001). After adjustment for patient and disease characteristics, patients exposed to 1 or 2 U of RBCs had a 16% higher long-term mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratios = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.01-1.34, P = 0.035). CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to 1 or 2 U of RBCs was associated with a 16% increased hazard of decreased survival after cardiac surgery.

Determination of Etiologic Mechanisms of Strokes Secondary to Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery

Background and Purpose— Current research focused on stroke in the setting of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery has missed important opportunities for additional understanding by failing to consider the range of different stroke mechanisms. We developed and implemented a classification system to identify the distribution and timing of stroke subtypes. Methods— We conducted a regional study of 388 patients with the diagnosis of stroke after isolated CABG surgery in northern New England from 1992 to 2000. Data were collected on patient and disease characteristics, intraoperative and postoperative care, and outcomes. Stroke etiology was classified into 1 of the following: hemorrhage, thromboembolic (embolic, thrombotic, lacunar), hypoperfusion, other (subtype not listed above), multiple (≥2 competing mechanisms), or unclassified (unknown mechanism). The reliability of the classification system was determined by percent agreement and &kgr; statistics. Results— Embolic strokes accounted for 62.1% of strokes, followed by multiple etiologies (10.1%), hypoperfusion (8.8%), lacunar (3.1%), thrombotic (1.0%), and hemorrhage (1.0%). There were 54 strokes with unknown etiology (13.9%). There were no strokes classified as “other.” Nearly 45% (105/235) of the embolic and 56% (18/32) of hypoperfusion strokes occurred within the first postoperative day. Conclusions— We used a locally developed classification system to determine the etiologic mechanism of 388 strokes secondary to CABG surgery. The principal etiologic mechanism was embolic, followed by stroke having multiple mechanisms and hypoperfusion. Regardless of mechanism, strokes predominantly occurred within the first postoperative day.

Intraoperative Red Blood Cell Transfusion During Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery Increases the Risk of Postoperative Low-Output Heart Failure

Background— Hemodilutional anemia during cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) is associated with increased mortality during coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. The impact of intraoperative red blood cell (RBC) transfusion to treat anemia during surgery is less understood. We examined the relationship between anemia during CPB, RBC transfusion, and risk of low-output heart failure (LOF). Methods and Results— Data were collected on 8004 isolated CABG patients in northern New England between 1996 and 2004. Patients were excluded if they experienced postoperative bleeding or received ≥3 units of transfused RBCs. LOF was defined as need for intraoperative or postoperative intra-aortic balloon pump, return to CPB, or ≥2 inotropes at 48 hours. Having a lower nadir HCT was also associated with an increased risk of developing LOF (adjusted odds ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.82 to 0.92; P=0.016), and that risk was further increased when patients received RBC transfusion. When adjusted for nadir hematocrit, exposure to RBC transfusion was a significant, independent predictor of LOF (adjusted odds ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.61; P=0.047). Conclusions— In this study, we observed that exposure to both hemodilutional anemia and RBC transfusion during surgery are associated with increased risk of LOF, defined as placement of an intraoperative or postoperative intra-aortic balloon pump, return to CPB after initial separation, or treatment with ≥2 inotropes at 48 hours postoperatively, after CABG. The risk of LOF is greater among patients exposed to intraoperative RBCs versus anemia alone.

Mediastinitis and long-term survival after coronary artery bypass graft surgery

BACKGROUND Mediastinitis is a dreaded complication of coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG). The long-term effect of mediastinitis on mortality after CABG has not been well studied. METHODS We examined the survival of 15,406 consecutive patients undergoing isolated CABG surgery from 1992 through 1996. Patient records were linked to the National Death Index. Mediastinitis was defined as occurring during the index admission and requiring reoperation. RESULTS Mediastinitis occurred in 193 patients (1.25%). Patients with mediastinitis were older and more likely to have had emergency surgery, diabetes, peripheral vascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and preoperative dialysis-dependent renal failure. Patients with mediastinitis were also more likely to be severely obese and had somewhat lower preoperative ejection fraction. After multivariate adjustment for these factors, the first year post-CABG survival rate was 78% with mediastinitis and 95% without, and the hazard ratio for mortality during the entire follow-up period was 3.09 (CI 95% 2.28, 4.19; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS Mediastinitis is associated with a marked increase in mortality during the first year post-CABG and a threefold increase during a 4-year follow-up period.

Perioperative Increases in Serum Creatinine Are Predictive of Increased 90-Day Mortality After Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery

Background— Impaired renal function after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery is a key risk factor for in-hospital mortality. However, perioperative increases in serum creatinine and the association with mortality has not been well-studied. We assessed the hypothesis that perioperative increases in creatinine are associated with increased 90-day mortality. Methods and Results— We studied 1391 patients in northern New England undergoing CABG in 2001 and evaluated preoperative and postoperative creatinine. Patients with preoperative dialysis were excluded. Data were linked to the National Death Index to assess 90-day survival. Kaplan-Meier and log-rank techniques were used. Patients were stratified by percent increase in creatinine from baseline: <25%, 25% to 49%, 50% to 99%, ≥100%. We assessed 90-day survival and calculated adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for creatinine groups, adjusting for age and sex. Patients with the largest creatinine increases (50% to 99% or ≥100%) had significantly higher 90-day mortality compared with patients with a smaller increase (<50%; P<0.001). Adjusted HR and 95% CI confirmed patients in the higher 2 groups had an increased risk of mortality compared with the <25% (referent); however, the 25% to 49% group was not different from the referent: 1.80 (95% CI: 0.73 to 4.44), 6.57 (95% CI, 3.03 to 14.27), and 22.10 (95% CI, 11.25 to 43.39). Conclusions— Patients with large creatinine increases (≥50%) after CABG surgery have a higher 90-day mortality compared with patients with small increases. Efforts to identify patients with impaired renal function and to preserve renal function before cardiac surgery may yield benefits for patients in the future.

Multivariable Prediction of Renal Insufficiency Developing After Cardiac Surgery

Background— Renal insufficiency after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery is associated with increased short-term and long-term mortality. We hypothesized that preoperative patient characteristics could be used to predict the patient-specific risk of developing postoperative renal insufficiency. Methods and Results— Data were prospectively collected on 11 301 patients in northern New England who underwent isolated CABG surgery between 2001 and 2005. Based on National Kidney Foundation definitions, moderate renal insufficiency was defined as a GFR <60 mL/min/1.73m2 and severe renal insufficiency as a GFR <30. Patients with at least moderate renal insufficiency at baseline were eliminated from the analysis, leaving 8363 patients who became our study cohort. A prediction model was developed to identify variables that best predicted the risk of developing severe renal insufficiency using multiple logistic regression, and the predictive ability of the model quantified using a bootstrap validated C-Index (Area Under ROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. Three percent of the patients with normal renal function before CABG surgery developed severe renal insufficiency (229/8363). In a multivariable model the preoperative patient characteristics most strongly associated with postoperative severe renal insufficiency included: age, gender, white blood cell count >12 000, prior CABG, congestive heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, diabetes, hypertension, and preoperative intraaortic balloon pump. The predictive model was significant with &khgr;2 150.8, probability value <0.0001. The model discriminated well, ROC 0.72 (95%CI: 0.68 to 0.75). The model was well calibrated according to the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Conclusions— We developed a robust prediction rule to assist clinicians in identifying patients with normal, or near normal, preoperative renal function who are at high risk of developing severe renal insufficiency. Physicians may be able to take steps to limit this adverse outcome and its associated increase in morbidity and mortality.

Effect of Diabetes and Associated Conditions on Long-Term Survival After Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery

Background—The effects of diabetes on short-term results of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery are known, but less is known about the long-term effects of diabetes and diabetic-related sequelae for patients undergoing this surgery. We studied the 10-year survival of nondiabetic and diabetic patients undergoing CABG surgery. Methods and Results—A prospective regional cohort study was conducted of 36 641 consecutive isolated CABG patients in northern New England from 1992 through 2001. Patient records were linked to the National Death Index to assess mortality. There were 154 140 person-years of follow-up and 5779 deaths. Kaplan–Meier techniques were used. Survival was stratified into three categories: no diabetes, diabetes without peripheral vascular disease and renal failure, and diabetes with peripheral vascular disease and/or renal failure. The overall annual incidence rate of death was 3.7 deaths per 100 person-years. Annual incidence rates for nondiabetic subjects and diabetic subjects were similar: 3.1 deaths per 100 person-years and 4.4 deaths per 100 person-years, respectively. The annual incidence rate for diabetic subjects with renal failure, peripheral vascular disease, or both was 9.4 deaths per 100 person-years. The log-rank test showed that the survival curves were significantly different (P<0.001). Conclusion—Patients that have diabetes without the sequelae of renal failure and/or peripheral vascular disease have long-term survival similar to but slightly less than patients without diabetes who undergo CABG surgery. Survival of CABG surgery patients with diabetes is greatly affected by associated comorbidities of peripheral vascular disease and renal failure. This knowledge may help guide the patient as well as the cardiologist and cardiac surgeon in making appropriate decisions in these critically ill patients.

Long-Term Survival After Cardiac Surgery is Predicted by Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate

BACKGROUND Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) before coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery is a key risk factor of in-hospital mortality. However, in patients with normal renal function before CABG, acute kidney injury develops after the procedure, making postoperative renal function assessment necessary for evaluation. Postoperative eGFR and its association with long-term survival have not been well studied. METHODS We studied 13,593 consecutive CABG patients in northern New England from 2001 to 2006. Patients with preoperative dialysis were excluded. Data were linked to the Social Security Association Death Master File to assess long-term survival. Kaplan-Meier and log-rank techniques were used. Patients were stratified by established categories of postoperative eGFR (90 or greater, 60 to 89, 30 to 59, 15 to 29, and less than 15 mL x min(-1) x 1.73 m(-2)). RESULTS Median follow-up was 2.8 years (mean, 2.7; range, 0 to 5.5). Patients with moderate to severe acute kidney injury (less than 60) after CABG had significantly worse survival than patients with little or no acute kidney injury (90 or greater). CONCLUSIONS Patients having moderate to severe acute kidney injury after CABG surgery had worse 5-year survival compared with patients who had normal or near-normal renal function.

Serious renal dysfunction after percutaneous coronary interventions can be predicted

BACKGROUND A prediction rule for determining the post-percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) risk of developing contrast-induced nephropathy (> or = 25% or > or = 0.5 mg/dL increase in creatinine) has been reported. However, little work has been done on predicting pre-PCI patient-specific risk for developing more serious renal dysfunction (SRD; new dialysis, > or = 2.0 mg/dL absolute increase in creatinine, or a > or = 50% increase in creatinine). We hypothesized that preprocedural patient characteristics could be used to predict the risk of post-PCI SRD. METHODS Data were prospectively collected on a consecutive series of 11141 patients undergoing PCI without dialysis in northern New England from 2003 to 2005. Multivariate logistic regression model was used to identify the combination of patient characteristics most predictive of developing post-PCI SRD. The ability of the model to discriminate was quantified using a bootstrap validated C-Index (area under the receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve). Its calibration was tested with a Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The model was validated on PCI procedures in 2006. RESULTS Serious renal dysfunction occurred in 0.74% of patients (83/11141) with an associated inhospital mortality of 19.3% versus 0.9% in those without SRD. The model discriminated well between patients who did and did not develop SRD after PCI (ROC 0.87, 95% CI 0.82-0.91). Preprocedural creatinine (37%), congestive heart failure (24%), and diabetes (15%) accounted for 76% of the predictive ability of the model. The other factors contributed 24%: urgent and emergent priority (10%), preprocedural intra-aortic balloon pump use (8%), age > or = 80 years (5%), and female sex (1%). Validation of the model was successful with ROC: 0.84 (95% CI 0.80-0.89). CONCLUSIONS Although infrequent, the occurrence of SRD after PCI is associated with a very high inhospital mortality. We developed and validated a robust clinical prediction rule to determine which patients are at high risk for SRD. Use of this model may help physicians perform targeted interventions to reduce this risk.

Long-Term Survival of the Very Elderly Undergoing Aortic Valve Surgery

Background— Increasing numbers of the very elderly are undergoing aortic valve procedures. We describe the short- and long-term survivorship for this cohort. Methods and Results— We conducted a cohort study of 7584 consecutive patients undergoing open aortic valve surgery without (51.1%; AVR) or with (48.9%; AVR + CABG) concomitant coronary artery bypass graft surgery between November 10, 1987 through June 30, 2006. Patient records were linked to the Social Security Administration’s Death Master File. Survivorship was stratified by age and concomitant CABG surgery. During 39 835 person-years of follow-up, there were 2877 deaths. Among AVR, there were 3304 patients <80 years of age, 419 patients 80 to 84 years, and 156 patients ≥85 years (24 patients >90 years). Among AVR+CABG patients, there were 2890 patients <80 years of age, 577 patients 80 to 84 years, and 238 patients ≥85 years (22 patients >90 years). Median survivorship for patients undergoing isolated AVR was 11.5 years (<80 years), 6.8 years (80 to 84 years), 6.2 years (≥85 years); for patients undergoing AVR+CABG, median survivorship was 9.4 years (<80 years), 6.8 years (80 to 84 years), and 7.1 years (≥85 years). Among both procedures, adjusted survivorship was significantly different across strata of age (P<0.001). These findings are similar to life expectancy of the general population from actuarial tables: 80 to 84 years (7 years) and ≥85 years (5 years). Conclusions— Survivorship among octogenarians is favorable, with more than half the patients surviving more than 6 years after their surgery. Concomitant CABG surgery does not diminish median survivorship among patients >80 years of age.