Elaine M. Olmstead

Multivariate prediction of in-hospital mortality associated with coronary artery bypass graft surgery. Northern New England Cardiovascular Disease Study Group.

BackgroundA prospective regional study was conducted to identify factors associated with in-hospital mortality among patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG). A prediction rule was developed and validated based on the data collected. Methods and ResultsData from 3,055 patients were collected from five clinical centers between July 1, 1987, and April 15, 1989. Logistic regression analysis was used to predict the risk of in-hospital mortality. A prediction rule was developed on a training set of data and validated on an independent test set. The metric used to assess the performance of the prediction rule was the area under the relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Variables used to construct the regression model of in-hospital mortality included age, sex, body surface area, presence of comorbid disease, history of CABG, left ventricular end-diastolic pressure, ejection fraction score, and priority of surgery. The model significantly predicted the occurrence of in-hospital mortality. The area under the ROC curve obtained from the training set of data was 0.74 (perfect, 1.0). The prediction rule performed well when used on a test set of data (area, 0.76). The correlation between observed and expected numbers of deaths was 0.99. ConclusionsThe prediction rule described in this report was developed using regional data, uses only eight variables, has good performance characteristics, and is easily available to clinicians with access to a microcomputer or programmable calculator. This validated multivariate prediction rule would be useful both to calculate the risk of mortality for an individual patient and to contrast observed and expected mortality rates for an institution or a particular clinician.

A regional intervention to improve the hospital mortality associated with coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The Northern New England Cardiovascular Disease Study Group.

OBJECTIVE To determine whether an organized intervention including data feedback, training in continuous quality improvement techniques, and site visits to other medical centers could improve the hospital mortality rates associated with coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. DESIGN Regional intervention study. Patient demographic and historical data, body surface area, cardiac catheterization results, priority of surgery, comorbidity, and status at hospital discharge were collected on CABG patients in Northern New England between July 1, 1987, and July 31, 1993. SETTING This study included all 23 cardiothoracic surgeons practicing in Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont during the study period. PATIENTS Data were collected on 15,095 consecutive patients undergoing isolated CABG procedures in Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont during the study period. INTERVENTIONS A three-component intervention aimed at reducing CABG mortality was fielded in 1990 and 1991. The interventions included feedback of outcome data, training in continuous quality improvement techniques, and site visits to other medical centers. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE A comparison of the observed and expected hospital mortality rates during the postintervention period. RESULTS During the postintervention period, we observed the outcomes for 6488 consecutive cases of CABG surgery. There were 74 fewer deaths than would have been expected. This 24% reduction in the hospital mortality rate was statistically significant (P = .001). This reduction in mortality rate was relatively consistent across patient subgroups and was temporally associated with the interventions. CONCLUSION We conclude that a multi-institutional, regional model for the continuous improvement of surgical care is feasible and effective. This model may have applications in other settings.

Differences between men and women in hospital mortality associated with coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The Northern New England Cardiovascular Disease Study Group.

BACKGROUND A prospective study of patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) was conducted to examine differences in hospital mortality by sex. Outcome data on 3055 CABG patients undergoing operation between 1987 and 1989 were examined for differences in patient, disease, and treatment factors. METHODS AND RESULTS Odds ratios (OR), risk differences, and 95% confidence intervals (CI95%) were calculated. Mortality rates for women (7.1%) and men (3.3%) differed, the OR (women versus men) being 2.23 (CI95%, 1.58 to 3.15). Women were older, more often diabetic, and had more urgent or emergent surgery; adjustment yielded an OR (women versus men) of 1.75 (CI95%, 1.17 to 2.63). Body surface area (BSA) was associated with risk of death in both sexes (P = .007) and positively associated with coronary artery luminal diameters. After adjustment for BSA, sex was no longer significantly associated with mortality (OR [women versus men] of 1.18; CI95%, 0.72 to 1.95). Internal mammary artery (IMA) grafting was performed less frequently among women than men (64.8% versus 78.4%, P < .001). Smaller BSA and absence of IMA grafting were each associated with increased risk of death (RD) from heart failure. Risk of death from heart failure (RD [women minus men] = 2.05; CI95%, 0.89 to 3.22) and hemorrhage (RD [women minus men] = 0.63; CI95%, 0.13 to 1.13) was greater among women; these accounted for 71.1% of the sex-specific difference in mortality rates. CONCLUSIONS Excess risk of hospital mortality among women having CABG was largely the consequence of death from heart failure and, to a lesser extent, from hemorrhage. Smaller BSA (probably because of its association with coronary artery luminal diameter) and the absence of IMA grafting were each associated with increased risk of death from heart failure.

Obesity and Risk of Adverse Outcomes Associated With Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery

Background—Obesity is frequently cited as a risk factor for adverse outcomes of major surgery. The results of prior studies of the relationship between obesity and risk of adverse outcomes of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) have been contradictory because of insufficient power to assess relatively infrequent outcomes or data to adjust for confounding factors. Methods and Results—Data on patient age, sex, height, weight, medical history, current clinical status, and treatment factors were assessed prospectively among 11 101 consecutive patients undergoing CABG. Body mass index (BMI) was used as the measure of obesity and was categorized as nonobese (1st to 74th percentiles), obese (75th to 94th percentiles), or severely obese (95th to 100th percentiles). Adverse outcomes occurring in-hospital, including mortality, intraoperative/postoperative cerebrovascular accident (CVA), postoperative bleeding, and sternal wound infection, were defined prospectively. Associations between obesity and postoperative...

The association of perioperative red blood cell transfusions and decreased long-term survival after cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to red blood cell (RBC) transfusions has been associated with increased mortality after cardiac surgery. We examined long-term survival for cardiac surgical patients who received one or two RBC units during index hospitalization. METHODS: Nine thousand seventy-nine consecutive patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft, valve, or coronary artery bypass graft/valve surgery at eight centers in northern New England during 2001-2004 were examined after exclusions. A probabilistic match between the regional registry and the Social Security Administration’s Death Master File determined mortality through June 30, 2006. Cox Proportional Hazard and propensity methods were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios. RESULTS: Thirty-six percent of patients (n = 3254) were exposed to one or two RBC units. Forty-three percent of RBCs were given intraoperatively, 56% in the postoperative period and 1% were preoperative. Patients transfused were more likely to be anemic, older, smaller, female and with more comorbid illness. Survival was significantly decreased for all patients exposed to 1 or 2 U of RBCs during hospitalization for cardiac surgery compared with those who received none (P < 0.001). After adjustment for patient and disease characteristics, patients exposed to 1 or 2 U of RBCs had a 16% higher long-term mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratios = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.01-1.34, P = 0.035). CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to 1 or 2 U of RBCs was associated with a 16% increased hazard of decreased survival after cardiac surgery.

Effect of Coronary Artery Diameter in Patients Undergoing Coronary Bypass Surgery

BACKGROUND Coronary artery diameter is known to be inversely associated with perioperative mortality related to coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). This association is believed to be responsible for increased risk among women and smaller people. However, the associations between sex, body size, and coronary size have not been carefully examined because direct information about coronary size is rarely available. Also, whether sex has an independent effect on vessel size is largely unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS Height, weight, sex, age, status at hospital discharge, and luminal diameter of the midleft anterior descending coronary artery (mid-LAD) were recorded prospectively in 1325 patients undergoing CABG. Small vessel size was associated with substantially increased risk of in-hospital mortality (15.8% for 1.0-mm vessels, 4.6% for 1.5- to 2.0-mm vessels, and 1.5% for 2.5- to 3.5-mm vessels, P[trend] < .001). Vessel size was strongly related to both sex and measures of body size. In multiple linear regression analysis, vessel size was positively correlated with body surface area (P[trend] < .01), body mass index (P[trend] = .004), height (P[trend] = .001), and weight (P[trend] = .001). After controlling for differences in age and body size, sex remained an important predictor of coronary size. Within each quartile of each body-size measure, mid-LAD diameter in men was greater than that in women (mean difference [range], 0.14 to 0.23 mm). CONCLUSIONS Small mid-LAD diameter is associated with substantially increased risk of in-hospital mortality with CABG. Although body size is correlated with mid-LAD diameter, women have smaller coronary arteries than men after controlling for differences in body size. These findings further support the hypothesis that smaller coronary arteries explain higher perioperative mortality with CABG in women and smaller people.

Effect of preoperative aspirin use on mortality in coronary artery bypass grafting patients

BACKGROUND Discontinuing aspirin use in patients before coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) has focused on bleeding risks. The effect of aspirin use on overall mortality with this procedure has not been studied. METHODS We performed a case patient-control patient study of the 8,641 consecutive isolated CABG procedures performed between July 1987 and May 1991 in Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont. Patients included all 368 deaths. Each case patient was paired with approximately two matched survivors (control patients). Aspirin use was defined by identification of ingestion within 7 days before the operation. RESULTS CABG patients using preoperative aspirin were less likely to experience in-hospital mortality in univariate (odds ratio [OR] = 0.73, 95% confidence interval [0.54, 0.97]) and multivariate [OR = 0.55, (0.31, 0.98)] analysis compared to nonusers. No significant difference was seen in the amount of chest tube drainage, transfusion of blood products, or need for reexploration for hemorrhage between patients who did and did not receive aspirin. CONCLUSIONS Preoperative aspirin use appears to be associated with a decreased risk of mortality in CABG patients without significant increase in hemorrhage, blood product requirements, or related morbidities.

Comparing long-term survival of patients with multivessel coronary disease after CABG or PCI: Analysis of BARI-like patients in Northern New England

Background—Randomized trials comparing coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) with percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) for patients with multivessel coronary disease (MVD) report similar long-term survival for CABG and PCI. These studies used a highly selected population of patients and providers, and their results may not be generalizable to actual care. Our goal in this study was to compare long-term survival of MVD patients treated with CABG vs PCI in contemporary practice. Methods and Results—From our northern New England registries of consecutive coronary revascularizations, we identified 10 198 CABG and 4295 PCI patients with MVD who may have been eligible for either procedure between 1994 and 2001. Vital status was obtained by linkage to the National Death Index. Proportional-hazards regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for survival in CABG vs PCI patients after adjustment for comorbidities and disease characteristics. CABG patients were older; had more comorbidities, more 3-vessel disease, and lower ejection fractions; and were more completely revascularized. Adjusted long-term survival for patients with 3-vessel disease was better after CABG than PCI (HR, 0.60; P<0.01) but not for patients with 2-vessel disease (HR, 0.98; P=0.77). The survival advantage of CABG for 3-vessel disease patients was present in all patient populations, including women, diabetics, and the elderly and in the era of high stent utilization. Conclusions—In contemporary practice, survival for patients with 3-vessel coronary disease is better after CABG than PCI, an observation that patients and physicians should carefully consider when deciding on a revascularization strategy.

Intraoperative Red Blood Cell Transfusion During Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery Increases the Risk of Postoperative Low-Output Heart Failure

Background— Hemodilutional anemia during cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) is associated with increased mortality during coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. The impact of intraoperative red blood cell (RBC) transfusion to treat anemia during surgery is less understood. We examined the relationship between anemia during CPB, RBC transfusion, and risk of low-output heart failure (LOF). Methods and Results— Data were collected on 8004 isolated CABG patients in northern New England between 1996 and 2004. Patients were excluded if they experienced postoperative bleeding or received ≥3 units of transfused RBCs. LOF was defined as need for intraoperative or postoperative intra-aortic balloon pump, return to CPB, or ≥2 inotropes at 48 hours. Having a lower nadir HCT was also associated with an increased risk of developing LOF (adjusted odds ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.82 to 0.92; P=0.016), and that risk was further increased when patients received RBC transfusion. When adjusted for nadir hematocrit, exposure to RBC transfusion was a significant, independent predictor of LOF (adjusted odds ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.61; P=0.047). Conclusions— In this study, we observed that exposure to both hemodilutional anemia and RBC transfusion during surgery are associated with increased risk of LOF, defined as placement of an intraoperative or postoperative intra-aortic balloon pump, return to CPB after initial separation, or treatment with ≥2 inotropes at 48 hours postoperatively, after CABG. The risk of LOF is greater among patients exposed to intraoperative RBCs versus anemia alone.

In-hospital outcomes of off-pump versus on-pump coronary artery bypass procedures: a multicenter experience ☆

BACKGROUND Concern about the possible adverse effects of the cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) pump and advances in retractors and operative techniques to access all coronary segments have resulted in increased interest in off-pump coronary artery bypass (OPCAB) procedures. Four of the Northern New England Cardiovascular Disease Study Group centers initiated OPCAB programs in 1998. We compared the preoperative risk profiles and in-hospital outcomes of patients done off-pump with those done by conventional coronary artery bypass (CCAB) with CPB. METHODS Between 1998 and 2000, 1,741 OPCAB and 6,126 CCAB procedures were performed at these four medical centers. Minimally invasive direct coronary artery bypass grafting procedures were excluded. Data were available for patient and disease risk factors, extent of coronary disease and adverse in-hospital outcomes. RESULTS The OPCAB and CCAB groups were somewhat different in their preoperative patient and disease characteristics. The OPCAB patients were more likely to be female and to have peripheral vascular disease. The CCAB patients were more likely to have an ejection fraction less than 0.40 and be urgent or emergent at operation. However, overall predicted risk of in-hospital mortality, based on preoperative factors, was similar in the OPCAB and CCAB groups; the mean predicted risk was 2.6% (p = 0.567). Crude rates of mortality (2.54% OPCAB versus 2.57%, CCAB), intraoperative or postoperative stroke (1.33% versus 1.82%), mediastinitis (1.10% versus 1.37%), and return to the operating room for bleeding (3.46% versus 2.93%) did not differ significantly. The OPCAB patients did have a statistically significant reduction in the need for intraoperative or postoperative intraaortic balloon pump support (2.31% versus 3.41%; p = 0.023) and in the incidence of postoperative atrial fibrillation (21.21% versus 26.31%; p < 0.001). Adjustment for preoperative risk factors and extent of coronary disease did not substantially change the crude results. Median postoperative length of stay was significantly shorter (5 days versus 6 days, p < 0.001) for OPCAB patients than for CCAB patients. CONCLUSIONS This multicenter study showed that patients having OPCAB are not exposed to a greater risk of short-term adverse outcomes. These data also provided evidence that patients having OPCAB have significantly lower need for intraoperative or postoperative intraaortic balloon pump, lower rates of postoperative atrial fibrillation, and a shorter length of stay.