Cecile S. Rousseaux

Decadal trends in global pelagic ocean chlorophyll: A new assessment integrating multiple satellites, in situ data, and models

Quantifying change in ocean biology using satellites is a major scientific objective. We document trends globally for the period 1998–2012 by integrating three diverse methodologies: ocean color data from multiple satellites, bias correction methods based on in situ data, and data assimilation to provide a consistent and complete global representation free of sampling biases. The results indicated no significant trend in global pelagic ocean chlorophyll over the 15 year data record. These results were consistent with previous findings that were based on the first 6 years and first 10 years of the SeaWiFS mission. However, all of the Northern Hemisphere basins (north of 10° latitude), as well as the Equatorial Indian basin, exhibited significant declines in chlorophyll. Trend maps showed the local trends and their change in percent per year. These trend maps were compared with several other previous efforts using only a single sensor (SeaWiFS) and more limited time series, showing remarkable consistency. These results suggested the present effort provides a path forward to quantifying global ocean trends using multiple satellite missions, which is essential if we are to understand the state, variability, and possible changes in the global oceans over longer time scales.

Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Primary Production at a Global Scale

We used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of four phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. First, we assessed the contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production at a global scale for the period 1998–2011. Globally, diatoms contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production (~50%, the equivalent of ~20 PgC∙y−1). Coccolithophores and chlorophytes each contributed ~20% (~7 PgC∙y−1) of the total primary production and cyanobacteria represented about 10% (~4 PgC∙y−1) of the total primary production. Primary production by diatoms was highest in the high latitudes (>40°) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We then assessed interannual variability of this group-specific primary production over the period 1998–2011. Globally the annual relative contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production varied by maximum 4% (1–2 PgC∙y−1). We assessed the effects of climate variability on group-specific primary production using global (i.e., Multivariate El Nino Index, MEI) and “regional” climate indices (e.g., Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability as indicated by significant correlation (p < 0.05) between the MEI and the group-specific primary production from all groups except coccolithophores. In the Atlantic, climate variability as indicated by NAO was significantly correlated to the primary production of 2 out of the 4 groups in the North Central Atlantic (diatoms/cyanobacteria) and in the North Atlantic (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). We found that climate variability as indicated by SAM had only a limited effect on group-specific primary production in the Southern Ocean. These results provide a modeling and data assimilation perspective to phytoplankton partitioning of primary production and contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of the carbon cycle in the oceans at a global scale.

Recent decadal trends in global phytoplankton composition

Identifying major trends in biogeochemical composition of the oceans is essential to improve our understanding of biological responses to climate forcing. Using the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model combined with ocean color remote sensing data assimilation, we assessed the trends in phytoplankton composition (diatoms, cyanobacteria, coccolithophores, and chlorophytes) at a global scale for the period 1998–2012. We related these trends in phytoplankton to physical conditions (surface temperature, surface photosynthetically available radiation (PAR), and mixed layer depth (MLD)) and nutrients (iron, silicate, and nitrate). We found a significant global decline in diatoms (−1.22% yr−1, p < 0.05). This trend was associated with a significant (p < 0.05) shallowing of the MLD (−0.20% yr−1), a significant increase in PAR (0.09% yr−1), and a significant decline in nitrate (−0.38% yr−1). The global decline in diatoms was mostly attributed to their decline in the North Pacific (−1.00% yr−1, p < 0.05), where the MLD shallowed significantly and resulted in a decline in all three nutrients (p < 0.05). None of the other phytoplankton groups exhibited a significant change globally, but regionally there were considerable significant trends. A decline in nutrients in the northernmost latitudes coincided with a significant decline in diatoms (North Pacific, −1.00% yr−1) and chlorophytes (North Atlantic, −9.70% yr−1). In the northern midlatitudes (North Central Pacific and Atlantic) where nutrients were more scarce, a decline in nutrients was associated with a decline in smaller phytoplankton: cyanobacteria declined significantly in the North Central Pacific (−0.72% yr−1) and Atlantic (−1.56% yr−1), and coccolithophores declined significantly in the North Central Atlantic (−2.06% yr−1). These trends represent the diversity and complexity of mechanisms that drives phytoplankton communities to adapt to variable conditions of nutrients, light, and mixed layer depth. These results provide a first insight into the existence of trends in phytoplankton composition over the maturing satellite ocean color era and illustrate how changes in the conditions of the oceans in the last ~15 years may have affected them.

Assessing the magnitude of CO2 flux uncertainty in atmospheric CO2 records using products from NASA's Carbon Monitoring Flux Pilot Project

NASAs Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project (FPP) was designed to better understand contemporary carbon fluxes by bringing together state-of-the art models with remote sensing data sets. Here we report on simulations using NASAs Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) which was used to evaluate the consistency of two different sets of observationally informed land and ocean fluxes with atmospheric CO2 records. Despite the observation inputs, the average difference in annual terrestrial biosphere flux between the two land (NASA Ames Carnegie-Ames-Stanford-Approach (CASA) and CASA-Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED)) models is 1.7 Pg C for 2009–2010. Ocean models (NASAs Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) and Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean Phase II (ECCO2)-Darwin) differ by 35% in their global estimates of carbon flux with particularly strong disagreement in high latitudes. Based upon combinations of terrestrial and ocean fluxes, GEOS-5 reasonably simulated the seasonal cycle observed at Northern Hemisphere surface sites and by the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) while the model struggled to simulate the seasonal cycle at Southern Hemisphere surface locations. Though GEOS-5 was able to reasonably reproduce the patterns of XCO2 observed by GOSAT, it struggled to reproduce these aspects of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder observations. Despite large differences between land and ocean flux estimates, resulting differences in atmospheric mixing ratio were small, typically less than 5 ppm at the surface and 3 ppm in the XCO2 column. A statistical analysis based on the variability of observations shows that flux differences of these magnitudes are difficult to distinguish from inherent measurement variability, regardless of the measurement platform.

Simulating PACE Global Ocean Radiances

The NASA PACE mission is a hyper-spectral radiometer planned for launch in the next decade. It is intended to provide new information on ocean biogeochemical constituents by parsing the details of high resolution spectral absorption and scattering. It is the first of its kind for global applications and as such, poses challenges for design and operation. To support pre-launch mission development and assess on-orbit capabilities, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has developed a dynamic simulation of global water-leaving radiances, using an ocean model containing multiple ocean phytoplankton groups, particulate detritus, particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), and chromophoric dissolved organic carbon (CDOC) along with optical absorption and scattering processes at 1 nm spectral resolution. The purpose here is to assess the skill of the dynamic model and derived global radiances. Global bias, uncertainty, and correlation are derived using available modern satellite radiances at moderate spectral resolution. Total chlorophyll, PIC, and the absorption coefficient of CDOC (aCDOC), are simultaneously assimilated to improve the fidelity of the optical constituent fields. A 5-year simulation showed statistically significant (P <0.05) comparisons of chlorophyll (r = 0.869), PIC (r = 0.868), and aCDOC (r = 0.890) with satellite data. Additionally, diatoms (r = 0.890), cyanobacteria (r = 0.732), and coccolithophores (r = 0.716) were significantly correlated with in situ data. Global assimilated distributions of optical constituents were coupled with a radiative transfer model (Ocean-Atmosphere Spectral Irradiance Model, OASIM) to estimate normalized water-leaving radiances at 1 nm for the spectral range 250–800 nm. These unassimilated radiances were within −0.074 mW cm−2 μm1 sr−1 of MODIS-Aqua radiances at 412, 443, 488, 531, 547, and 667 nm. This difference represented a bias of −10.4% (model low). A mean correlation of 0.706 (P < 0.05) was found with global distributions of MODIS radiances. These results suggest skill in the global assimilated model and resulting radiances. The reported error characterization suggests that the global dynamical simulation can support some aspects of mission design and analysis. For example, the high spectral resolution of the simulation supports investigations of band selection. The global nature of the radiance representations supports investigations of satellite observing scenarios. Global radiances at bands not available in current and past missions support investigations of mission capability.

Satellite sensor requirements for monitoring essential biodiversity variables of coastal ecosystems

Abstract The biodiversity and high productivity of coastal terrestrial and aquatic habitats are the foundation for important benefits to human societies around the world. These globally distributed habitats need frequent and broad systematic assessments, but field surveys only cover a small fraction of these areas. Satellite‐based sensors can repeatedly record the visible and near‐infrared reflectance spectra that contain the absorption, scattering, and fluorescence signatures of functional phytoplankton groups, colored dissolved matter, and particulate matter near the surface ocean, and of biologically structured habitats (floating and emergent vegetation, benthic habitats like coral, seagrass, and algae). These measures can be incorporated into Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs), including the distribution, abundance, and traits of groups of species populations, and used to evaluate habitat fragmentation. However, current and planned satellites are not designed to observe the EBVs that change rapidly with extreme tides, salinity, temperatures, storms, pollution, or physical habitat destruction over scales relevant to human activity. Making these observations requires a new generation of satellite sensors able to sample with these combined characteristics: (1) spatial resolution on the order of 30 to 100‐m pixels or smaller; (2) spectral resolution on the order of 5 nm in the visible and 10 nm in the short‐wave infrared spectrum (or at least two or more bands at 1,030, 1,240, 1,630, 2,125, and/or 2,260 nm) for atmospheric correction and aquatic and vegetation assessments; (3) radiometric quality with signal to noise ratios (SNR) above 800 (relative to signal levels typical of the open ocean), 14‐bit digitization, absolute radiometric calibration <2%, relative calibration of 0.2%, polarization sensitivity <1%, high radiometric stability and linearity, and operations designed to minimize sunglint; and (4) temporal resolution of hours to days. We refer to these combined specifications as H4 imaging. Enabling H4 imaging is vital for the conservation and management of global biodiversity and ecosystem services, including food provisioning and water security. An agile satellite in a 3‐d repeat low‐Earth orbit could sample 30‐km swath images of several hundred coastal habitats daily. Nine H4 satellites would provide weekly coverage of global coastal zones. Such satellite constellations are now feasible and are used in various applications.

An overview of approaches and challenges for retrieving marine inherent optical properties from ocean color remote sensing

Ocean color measured from satellites provides daily global, synoptic views of spectral waterleaving reflectances that can be used to generate estimates of marine inherent optical properties (IOPs). These reflectances, namely the ratio of spectral upwelled radiances to spectral downwelled irradiances, describe the light exiting a water mass that defines its color. IOPs are the spectral absorption and scattering characteristics of ocean water and its dissolved and particulate constituents. Because of their dependence on the concentration and composition of marine constituents, IOPs can be used to describe the contents of the upper ocean mixed layer. This information is critical to further our scientific understanding of biogeochemical oceanic processes, such as organic carbon production and export, phytoplankton dynamics, and responses to climatic disturbances. Given their importance, the international ocean color community has invested significant effort in improving the quality of satellite-derived IOP products, both regionally and globally. Recognizing the current influx of data products into the community and the need to improve current algorithms in anticipation of new satellite instruments (e.g., the global, hyperspectral spectroradiometer of the NASA Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission), we present a synopsis of the current state of the art in the retrieval of these core optical properties. Contemporary approaches for obtaining IOPs from satellite ocean color are reviewed and, for clarity, separated based their inversion methodology or the type of IOPs sought. Summaries of known uncertainties associated with each approach are provided, as well as common performance metrics used to evaluate them. We discuss current knowledge gaps and make recommendations for future investment for upcoming missions whose instrument characteristics diverge sufficiently from heritage and existing sensors to warrant reassessing current approaches.

Directional and Spectral Irradiance in Ocean Models: Effects on Simulated Global Phytoplankton, Nutrients, and Primary Production

The importance of including directional and spectral light in simulations of ocean radiative transfer was investigated using a coupled biogeochemical-circulation-radiative model of the global oceans. The effort focused on phytoplankton abundances, nutrient concentrations and net primary production. The importance was approached by sequentially removing directional (i.e., direct vs. diffuse) and spectral irradiance and comparing results of the above variables to a fully directionally and spectrally-resolved model. In each case the total irradiance was kept constant; it was only the pathways and spectral nature that were changed. Assuming all irradiance was diffuse had negligible effect on global ocean primary production. Global nitrate and total chlorophyll concentrations declined by about 20% each. The largest changes occurred in the tropics and sub-tropics rather than the high latitudes, where most of the irradiance is already diffuse. Disregarding spectral irradiance had effects that depended upon the choice of attenuation wavelength. The wavelength closest to the spectrally-resolved model, 500nm, produced lower nitrate (19%) and chlorophyll (8%) and higher primary production (2%) than the spectral model. Phytoplankton relative abundances were very sensitive to the choice of non-spectral wavelength transmittance. The combined effects of neglecting both directional and spectral irradiance exacerbated the differences, despite using attenuation at 500nm. Global nitrate decreased 33% and chlorophyll decreased 24%. Changes in phytoplankton community structure were considerable, representing a change from chlorophytes to cyanobacteria and coccolithophores. This suggested a shift in community function, from light-limitation to nutrient limitation: lower demands for nutrients from cyanobacteria and coccolithophores favored them over the more nutrient-demanding chlorophytes. Although diatoms have the highest nutrient demands in the model, their relative abundances were generally unaffected because they only prosper in nutrient-rich regions, such as the high latitudes and upwelling regions, which showed the fewest effects from the changes in radiative simulations. The results showed that including directional and spectral irradiance when simulating the ocean light field can be important for ocean biology, but the magnitude varies with variables and regions. The quantitative results are intended to assist ocean modelers when considering improved irradiance representations relative to other processes or variables associated with the issues of interest.

Global trends in ocean phytoplankton: a new assessment using revised ocean colour data

ABSTRACT A recent revision of the NASA global ocean colour record shows changes in global ocean chlorophyll trends. This new 18-year time series now includes three global satellite sensors, the Sea-viewing Wide Field of view Sensor (SeaWiFS), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS-Aqua), and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The major changes are radiometric drift correction, a new algorithm for chlorophyll, and a new sensor VIIRS. The new satellite data record shows no significant trend in global annual median chlorophyll from 1998 to 2015, in contrast to a statistically significant negative trend from 1998 to 2012 in the previous version. When revised satellite data are assimilated into a global ocean biogeochemical model, no trend is observed in global annual median chlorophyll. This is consistent with previous findings for the 1998–2012 time period using the previous processing version and only two sensors (SeaWiFS and MODIS). Detecting trends in ocean chlorophyll with satellites is sensitive to data processing options and radiometric drift correction. The assimilation of these data, however, reduces sensitivity to algorithms and radiometry, as well as the addition of a new sensor. This suggests the assimilation model has skill in detecting trends in global ocean colour. Using the assimilation model, spatial distributions of significant trends for the 18-year record (1998–2015) show recent decadal changes. Most notable are the North and Equatorial Indian Oceans basins, which exhibit a striking decline in chlorophyll. It is exemplified by declines in diatoms and chlorophytes, which in the model are large and intermediate size phytoplankton. This decline is partially compensated by significant increases in cyanobacteria, which represent very small phytoplankton. This suggests the beginning of a shift in phytoplankton composition in these tropical and subtropical Indian basins.

Forecasting Ocean Chlorophyll in the Equatorial Pacific

Using a global ocean biogeochemical model combined with a forecast of physical oceanic and atmospheric variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, we assess the skill of a chlorophyll concentrations forecast in the Equatorial Pacific for the period 2012–2015 with a focus on the forecast of the onset of the 2015 El Niño event. Using a series of retrospective 9-month hindcasts, we assess the uncertainties of the forecasted chlorophyll by comparing the monthly total chlorophyll concentration from the forecast with the corresponding monthly ocean chlorophyll data from the Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (S-NPP VIIRS) satellite. The forecast was able to reproduce the phasing of the variability in chlorophyll concentration in the Equatorial Pacific, including the beginning of the 2015–2016 El Niño. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) was significant (p < 0.05) for forecast at 1-month (R = 0.33), 8-month (R = 0.42) and 9-month (R = 0.41) lead times. The root mean square error (RMSE) increased from 0.0399 μg chl L−1 for the 1-month lead forecast to a maximum of 0.0472 μg chl L−1 for the 9-month lead forecast indicating that the forecast of the amplitude of chlorophyll concentration variability was getting worse. Forecasts with a 3-month lead time were on average the closest to the S-NPP VIIRS data (23% or 0.033 μg chl L−1) while the forecast with a 9-month lead time were the furthest (31% or 0.042 μg chl L−1). These results indicate the potential for forecasting chlorophyll concentration in this region but also highlights various deficiencies and suggestions for improvements to the current biogeochemical forecasting system. This system provides an initial basis for future applications including the effects of El Niño events on fisheries and other ocean resources given improvements identified in the analysis of these results.