Cemal Atici

Gravity Model of Turkey's Fresh and Processed Fruit and Vegetable Export to the EU

Abstract This study analyses the factors that determine Turkeys fresh and processed fruit and vegetable exports to the European Union (EU) using a gravity model. Panel data from 1995 to 2001 for 13 EU member countries are utilized. The explanatory variables are GDP, population, distance, Turkish population living in EU member countries, and being non-Mediterranean. Results indicate that the size of the economy, EU population, Turkish population in the EU, and addressing the tastes and preferences of non-Mediterranean countries are significant factors that affect Turkish fruit and vegetable exports. The results suggest that marketing strategies targeting the population of Turkish people in EU countries and non-Mediterranean member countries enhance the export performance of fruit and vegetable exports.

A GAME THEORETIC ANALYSIS OF TURKISH ACCESSION TO A EUROPEAN CUSTOMS UNION

The entrance of additional countries into a European customs union, in this case Turkey, and its impact on agriculture are examined. Results from a trade simulation model are used as components of a Political Preference Function and utilized within a game theoretic framework to identify the optimal strategies for Turkey, the EU, and the U.S. Turkeys best interest, from an agricultural perspective, involves adoption of agreements made in the Uruguay round of GATT as a developing country rather than applying EU protection. Although free trade is not the optimal solution, simulations indicate that the solution does involve the reduction of agricultural protection levels.