Charles G. Bufe

Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the Greater San Francisco Bay Region

The seismic cycle for the San Francisco Bay region is synthesized by a model combining the pre-and post-1906 seismic histories. The long-term acceleration of seismic release (seismic moment, Benioff strain release, or event count) in the seismic cycle and the shorter-term accelerations preceding the larger earthquakes within that cycle are modeled using an empirical predictive technique, called time-to-failure analysis, in which rate of seismic release is proportional to an inverse power of the remaining time to failure. The exponent of time to failure in the accelerating sequences appears to be scale invariant, and the length of the full cycle is estimated at 269 ± 50 years. The 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, which is the culmination of the first subcycle in the present long-term seismic cycle, should have been predictable with an uncertainty of 2 years in time and 0.5 in magnitude, although the specific location (at Loma Prieta) was not predictable by this technique. If our model is correct and if the Loma Prieta earthquake is the culmination of a subcycle, the San Francisco Bay region should be entering a relatively long (20–50 years) period of seismic quiescence above magnitude 6. A great earthquake, such as the 1906 San Francisco event, would appear to be more than a century in the future.

Seismicity Trends and Potential for Large Earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian Region

The high likelihood of a gap-filling thrust earthquake in the Alaska subduction zone within this decade is indicated by two independent methods: analysis of historic earthquake recurrence data and time-to-failure analysis applied to recent decades of instrumental data. Recent (May 1993) earthquake activity in the Shumagin Islands gap is consistent with previous projections of increases in seismic release, indicating that this segment, along with the Alaska Peninsula segment, is approaching failure. Based on this pattern of accelerating seismic release, we project the occurrence of one or moreM≥7.3 earthquakes in the Shumagin-Alaska Peninsula region during 1994–1996. Different segments of the Alaska-Aleutian seismic zone behave differently in the decade or two preceding great earthquakes, some showing acceleration of seismic release (type “A” zones), while others show deceleration (type “D” zones). The largest Alaska-Aleutian earthquakes—in 1957, 1964, and 1965—originated in zones that exhibit type D behavior. Type A zones currently showing accelerating release are the Shumagin, Alaska Peninsula, Delarof, and Kommandorski segments. Time-to-failure analysis suggests that the large earthquakes could occur in these latter zones within the next few years.

The 1987 Whittier Narrows Earthquake in the Los Angeles Metropolitan Area, California

The Whittier Narrows earthquake sequence (local magnitude, ML = 5.9), which caused over

Oroville earthquakes: Normal faulting in the Sierra Nevada foothills

358-million damage, indicates that assessments of earthquake hazards in the Los Angeles metropolitan area may be underestimated. The sequence ruptured a previously unidentified thrust fault that may be part of a large system of thrust faults that extends across the entire east-west length of the northern margin of the Los Angeles basin. Peak horizontal accelerations from the main shock, which were measured at ground level and in structures, were as high as 0.6g (where g is the acceleration of gravity at sea level) within 50 kilometers of the epicenter. The distribution of the modified Mercalli intensity VII reflects a broad north-south elongated zone of damage that is approximately centered on the main shock epicenter.

Evidence for a Global Seismic-Moment Release Sequence

Aftershocks of the Oroville, California, earthquake of 1 August 1975 define a 16- by 12-kilometer fault plane striking north-south and dipping 60 degrees to the west to a depth of 10 kilometers. Focal mechanisms from P-wave first motions indicate normal faulting with the western, Great Valley side downdropped relative to the Sierra Nevada block. The northward projection of the fault plane passes beneath Oroville Dam and crops out under the reservoir.

Search for seismic forerunners to earthquakes in central California

Temporal clustering of the larger earthquakes (foreshock-mainshock-aftershock) followed by relative quiescence (stress shadow) are characteristic of seismic cycles along plate boundaries. A global seismic-moment release history, based on a little more than 100 years of instrumental earthquake data in an extended version of the catalog of Pacheco and Sykes (1992), illustrates similar behavior for Earth as a whole. Although the largest earthquakes have occurred in the circum-Pacific region, an analysis of moment release in the hemisphere antipodal to the Pacific plate shows a very similar pattern. Monte Carlo simulations confirm that the global temporal clustering of great shallow earthquakes during 1952–1964 at M ≥ 9.0 is highly significant (4% random probability) as is the clustering of the events of M ≥ 8.6 (0.2% random probability) during 1950–1965. We have extended the Pacheco and Sykes (1992) catalog from 1989 through 2001 using Harvard moment centroid data. Immediately after the 1950–1965 cluster, significant quiescence at and above M 8.4 begins and continues until 2001 (0.5% random probability). In alternative catalogs derived by correcting for possible random errors in magnitude estimates in the extended Pacheco–Sykes catalog, the clustering of M ≥ 9 persists at a significant level. These observations indicate that, for great earthquakes, Earth behaves as a coherent seismotectonic system. A very-large-scale mechanism for global earthquake triggering and/or stress transfer is implied. There are several candidates, but so far only viscoelastic relaxation has been modeled on a global scale.

Moment-tensor solutions estimated using optimal filter theory: Global seismicity, 2000

Abstract The relatively high seismicity of the San Andreas fault zone in central California provides an excellent opportunity to search for seismic forerunners to moderate earthquakes. Analysis of seismic traveltime and earthquake location data has resulted in the identification of two possible seismic forerunners. The first is a period of apparently late (0.3 sec) P-wave arrival times lasting several weeks preceding one earthquake of magnitude 5.0. The rays for these travel paths passed through — or very close to — the aftershock volume of the subsequent earthquake. The sources for these P-arrival time data were earthquakes in the distance range 20–70 km. Uncertainties in the influence of small changes in the hypocenters of the source earthquakes and in the identification of small P-arrivals raise the possibility that the apparantly delayed arrivals are not the result of a decrease in P-velocity. The second possible precursor is an apparent increase in the average depth of earthquakes preceding two moderate earthquakes. This change might be only apparent, caused by a location bias introduced by a decrease in P-wave velocity, but numerical modeling for realistic possible changes in velocity suggests that the observed effect is more likely a true migration of earthquakes. To carry out this work — involving the manipulation of several thousand earthquake hypocenters and several hundred thousand readings of arrival time — a system of data storage was designed and manipulation programs for a large digital computer have been executed. This system allows, for example, the automatic selection of earthquakes from a specific region, the extraction of all the observed arrival times for these events, and their relocation under a chosen set of assumptions.

Comparing the November 2002 Denali and November 2001 Kunlun earthquakes

Abstract Moment–tensor solutions, estimated using optimal filter theory, are listed for 324 moderate-to-large size earthquakes that occurred during the year 2000.

Moment-tensor solutions estimated using optimal filter theory: global seismicity 1999

Major strike-slip earthquakes recently occurred in Alaska on the central Denali fault ( M 7.9) on 3 November 2002, and in Tibet on the central Kunlun fault ( M 7.8) on 14 November 2001. Both earthquakes generated large surface waves with M S [U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)] of 8.5 (Denali) and 8.0 (Kunlun). Each event occurred on an east–west-trending strike-slip fault situated near the northern boundary of an intense deformation zone that is characterized by lateral extrusion and rotation of crustal blocks. Each earthquake produced east-directed nearly unilateral ruptures that propagated 300 to 400 km. Maximum lateral surface offsets and maximum moment release occurred well beyond 100 km from the rupture initiation, with the events exhibiting by far the largest separations of USGS hypocenter and Harvard Moment Tensor Centroid (CMT) for strike-slip earthquakes in the 27-year CMT catalog. In each sequence, the largest aftershock was more than two orders of magnitude smaller than the mainshock. Regional moment release had been accelerating prior to the main shocks. The close proximity in space and time of the 1964 Prince William Sound and 2002 Denali earthquakes, relative to their rupture lengths and estimated return times, suggests that these events may be part of a recurrent cluster in the vicinity of a complex plate boundary.

Stress distribution along the Fairweather-Queen Charlotte transform fault system

Abstract Moment-tensor solutions estimated using optimal filter theory are listed for 271 moderate-to-large size earthquakes that occurred during 1999.