Oliver S. Boyd

The 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model

New seismic hazard maps have been developed for the conterminous United States using the latest data, models, and methods available for assessing earthquake hazard. The hazard models incorporate new information on earthquake rupture behavior observed in recent earthquakes; fault studies that use both geologic and geodetic strain rate data; earthquake catalogs through 2012 that include new assessments of locations and magnitudes; earthquake adaptive smoothing models that more fully account for the spatial clustering of earthquakes; and 22 ground motion models, some of which consider more than double the shaking data applied previously. Alternative input models account for larger earthquakes, more complicated ruptures, and more varied ground shaking estimates than assumed in earlier models. The ground motions, for levels applied in building codes, differ from the previous version by less than ±10% over 60% of the country, but can differ by ±50% in localized areas. The models are incorporated in insurance rates, risk assessments, and as input into the U.S. building code provisions for earthquake ground shaking.

Including Foreshocks and Aftershocks in Time‐Independent Probabilistic Seismic‐Hazard Analyses

Time‐independent probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis treats each source as being temporally and spatially independent; hence foreshocks and aftershocks, which are both spatially and temporally dependent on the mainshock, are removed from earthquake catalogs. Yet, intuitively, these earthquakes should be considered part of the seismic hazard, capable of producing damaging ground motions. In this study, I consider the mainshock and its dependents as a time‐independent cluster, each cluster being temporally and spatially independent from any other. The cluster has a recurrence time of the mainshock; and, by considering the earthquakes in the cluster as a union of events, dependent events have an opportunity to contribute to seismic ground motions and hazard. Based on the methods of the U.S. Geological Survey for a high‐hazard site, the inclusion of dependent events causes ground motions that are exceeded at probability levels of engineering interest to increase by about 10% but could be as high as 20% if variations in aftershock productivity can be accounted for reliably.

Seismic attenuation in artificial glass cracks: Physical and physicochemical effects of fluids

Attenuation and stiffness of artificial, fluid containing cracks are measured from 3 mHz to 10 Hz. The cracks are wedge-shaped; made from glass microscope slides. To explain the frequency dependence of both the attenuation and the stiffness (akin to a modulus), we need to appeal to well known fluid flow mechanisms and to the physicochemical interaction between the fluid and crack surface. By altering the wettability of the crack surfaces, surfactants change the mobility of water and thereby change the frequency dependence of the fluid flow effects by several orders of magnitude.

A random-walk algorithm for modeling lithospheric density and the role of body forces in the evolution of the Midcontinent Rift

This paper develops a Monte Carlo algorithm for extracting three-dimensional lithospheric density models from geophysical data. Empirical scaling relationships between velocity and density create a 3D starting density model, which is then iteratively refined until it reproduces observed gravity and topography. This approach permits deviations from uniform crustal velocity-density scaling, which provide insight into crustal lithology and prevent spurious mapping of crustal anomalies into the mantle. We test this algorithm on the Proterozoic Midcontinent Rift (MCR), north-central U.S. The MCR provides a challenge because it hosts a gravity high overlying low shear-wave velocity crust in a generally flat region. Our initial density estimates are derived from a seismic velocity/crustal thickness model based on joint inversion of surface-wave dispersion and receiver functions. By adjusting these estimates to reproduce gravity and topography, we generate a lithospheric-scale model that reveals dense middle crust and eclogitized lowermost crust within the rift. Mantle lithospheric density beneath the MCR is not anomalous, consistent with geochemical evidence that lithospheric mantle was not the primary source of rift-related magmas and suggesting that extension occurred in response to far-field stress rather than a hot mantle plume. Similarly, the subsequent inversion of normal faults resulted from changing far-field stress that exploited not only warm, recently faulted crust but also a gravitational potential energy low in the MCR. The success of this density modeling algorithm in the face of such apparently contradictory geophysical properties suggests that it may be applicable to a variety of tectonic and geodynamic problems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Crustal deformation in the New Madrid seismic zone and the role of postseismic processes

Global Navigation Satellite System data across the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) in the central United States over the period from 2000 through 2014 are analyzed and modeled with several deformation mechanisms including the following: (1) creep on subsurface dislocations, (2) postseismic frictional afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation from the 1811–1812 and 1450 earthquakes in the NMSZ, and (3) regional strain. In agreement with previous studies, a dislocation creeping at about 4 mm/yr between 12 and 20 km depth along the downdip extension of the Reelfoot fault reproduces the observations well. We find that a dynamic model of postseismic frictional afterslip from the 1450 and February 1812 Reelfoot fault events can explain this creep. Kinematic and dynamic models involving the Cottonwood Grove fault provide minimal predictive power. This is likely due to the smaller size of the December 1811 event on the Cottonwood Grove fault and a distribution of stations better suited to constrain localized strain across the Reelfoot fault. Regional compressive strain across the NMSZ is found to be less than 3 × 10−9/yr. If much of the present-day surface deformation results from afterslip, it is likely that many of the earthquakes we see today in the NMSZ are aftershocks from the 1811–1812 New Madrid earthquakes. Despite this conclusion, our results are consistent with observations and models of intraplate earthquake clustering. Given this and the recent paleoseismic history of the region, we suggest that seismic hazard is likely to remain significant.

Seismic Source Characterization for the 2014 Update of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

We present the updated seismic source characterization (SSC) for the 2014 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous United States. Construction of the seismic source models employs the methodology that was developed for the 1996 NSHM but includes new and updated data, data types, source models, and source parameters that reflect the current state of knowledge of earthquake occurrence and state of practice for seismic hazard analyses. We review the SSC parameterization and describe the methods used to estimate earthquake rates, magnitudes, locations, and geometries for all seismic source models, with an emphasis on new source model components. We highlight the effects that two new model components—incorporation of slip rates from combined geodetic-geologic inversions and the incorporation of adaptively smoothed seismicity models—have on probabilistic ground motions, because these sources span multiple regions of the conterminous United States and provide important additional epistemic uncertainty for the 2014 NSHM.

An efficient Matlab script to calculate heterogeneous anisotropically elastic wave propagation in three dimensions

We have created a second-order finite-difference solution to the anisotropic elastic wave equation in three dimensions and implemented the solution as an efficient Matlab script. This program allows the user to generate synthetic seismograms for three-dimensional anisotropic earth structure. The code was written for teleseismic wave propagation in the 1-0.1Hz frequency range but is of general utility and can be used at all scales of space and time. This program was created to help distinguish among various types of lithospheric structure given the uneven distribution of sources and receivers commonly utilized in passive source seismology. Several successful implementations have resulted in a better appreciation for subduction zone structure, the fate of a transform fault with depth, lithospheric delamination, and the effects of wavefield focusing and defocusing on attenuation. Companion scripts are provided which help the user prepare input to the finite-difference solution. Boundary conditions including specification of the initial wavefield, absorption and two types of reflection are available.

Estimating Earthquake Magnitudes from Reported Intensities in the Central and Eastern United States

A new macroseismic intensity prediction equation is derived for the central and eastern United States and is used to estimate the magnitudes of the 1811–1812 New Madrid, Missouri, and 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquakes. This work improves upon previous derivations of intensity prediction equations by including additional intensity data, correcting magnitudes in the intensity datasets to moment magnitude, and accounting for the spatial and temporal population distributions. The new relation leads to moment magnitude estimates for the New Madrid earthquakes that are toward the lower range of previous studies. Depending on the intensity dataset to which the new macroseismic intensity prediction equation is applied, mean estimates for the 16 December 1811, 23 January 1812, and 7 February 1812 mainshocks, and 16 December 1811 dawn aftershock range from 6.9 to 7.1, 6.8 to 7.1, 7.3 to 7.6, and 6.3 to 6.5, respectively. One‐sigma uncertainties on any given estimate could be as high as 0.3–0.4 magnitude units. We also estimate a magnitude of 6.9±0.3 for the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake. We find a greater range of magnitude estimates when also accounting for multiple macroseismic intensity prediction equations. The inability to accurately and precisely ascertain magnitude from intensities increases the uncertainty of the central United States earthquake hazard by nearly a factor of two. Relative to the 2008 national seismic hazard maps, our range of possible 1811–1812 New Madrid earthquake magnitudes increases the coefficient of variation of seismic hazard estimates for Memphis, Tennessee, by 35%–42% for ground motions expected to be exceeded with a 2% probability in 50 years and by 27%–35% for ground motions expected to be exceeded with a 10% probability in 50 years.

Attenuation Tomography Beneath the Rocky Mountain Front: Implications for the Physical State of the Upper Mantle

Utilizing the Rocky Mountain Front (RMF) broadband seismic dataset acquired in 1992, this study has derived the seismic attenuation structure underlying part of the Southern Rocky Mountains and surrounding areas through measurements of differential t* of S-phase waveforms. Previous studies of the area include P, S and surface wave travel time tomography, and all indicate low upper mantle velocities below the Rocky Mountain region. Calculations of intrinsic attenuation coupled with current velocity models aid in the determination of temperature, partial melt distributions, and compositional variation. A N-S zone of high shear wave attenuation (Q s 30) is found in the mantle beneath the Rocky Mountains and lies east of the region of lowest shear wave velocity. Relationships between shear wave attenuation and shear wave velocity are consistent with both thermal and compositional variability. Along the eastern Colorado Rockies and due north of the Rio Grande Rift, the relationships are consistent with an interpretation of elevated temperatures by up to 50 K at 125 km depth. West of this region low velocities and low attenuation suggest either unusual composition or very high temperatures. The low density mantle material beneath the Colorado Rocky Mountains in addition to increased crustal thickness and low density crustal intrusions provides a density contrast sufficient to support its overburden.

Seismic hazard in the Nation's breadbasket

The USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps were updated in 2014 and included several important changes for the central United States (CUS). Background seismicity sources were improved using a new moment-magnitude-based catalog; a new adaptive, nearest-neighbor smoothing kernel was implemented; and maximum magnitudes for background sources were updated. Areal source zones developed by the Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization for Nuclear Facilities project were simplified and adopted. The weighting scheme for ground motion models was updated, giving more weight to models with a faster attenuation with distance compared to the previous maps. Overall, hazard changes (2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, across a range of ground-motion frequencies) were smaller than 10% in most of the CUS relative to the 2008 USGS maps despite new ground motion models and their assigned logic tree weights that reduced the probabilistic ground motions by 5–20%.