Charles S. Bullock

Party, Constituency, and Roll-Call Voting in the U. S. Senate

A longitudinal analysis of a 30-year period shows that the more heterogeneous a states population, the more likely it is to have simultaneously a Democratic and a Republican senator. A path analysis linking constituency, competitiveness, party, and roll-call variables is tested on data from the 1970 census and the 93rd Congress. Geographic heterogeneity is related to diversity in the reelection constituencies of senators representing the same state. Reelection constituency is, in turn, related to party control of a states Senate seats. While reelection constituency has a greater direct effect than geographic constituency on roll-call behavior, party has the largest direct effect. Constituency characteristics have a larger effect than party when direct and indirect effects are combined.

Racial Crossover Voting and the Election of Black Officials

Little is known about the voting behavior of blacks aside from the observation that they are likely to vote in blocs for black candidates. In this study, we analyze fifty-two Atlanta area elections in which black and white candidates opposed each other. While Atlanta voters usually vote for candidates of their own race, this practice is more varied and less extensive than in the rural southern communities which others have analyzed. The extent to which voters support candidates not of their race varies greatly. Multivariate models can explain about 75 percent of the variance in black crossover voting and almost 60 percent of the variance in white crossovers. Incumbency and newspaper endorsements are especially important in attracting crossover votes. Three models, derived from differing expectations about the degree of prejudice, for estimating the share of votes cast for black candidates were tested. Ninety percent of the variance in election outcomes in Atlanta can be explained by the crossover model which includes terms for crossover voting of both races, black turnout, and black registration. Models which assume no crossovers or that only blacks crossover are less successful.

Congressional Voting and the Mobilization of a Black Electorate in the South

T HE WITHERUNG OF THE SYSTEM of intimidation which kept black registration near zero for three generations in many parts of the South has opened the way for blacks to become a powerful force in many congressional districts. Over the last two decades the number of blacks registered to vote in the South has increased by more than two million. The share of the regions blacks who are registered has risen from 25 percent in 1956 to approximately 60 percent. If this increase has had a political impact, there should be some discernible policy consequences. Black political participation may have altered the policy stands of some southern legislators. In districts where black voters are numerous but still a minority, white candidates may believe it necessary to be somewhat responsive to black interests. This supposition may promote a conflict between political expediency, i.e., the need to build a biracial coalition in order to win public office, and traditional white fears of black political influence. To appear too responsive to blacks may cost white incumbents support from their own race. From this tension, comes an important issue addressed in this paper: have white representatives become more responsive to blacks as black political activity has accelerated?

Election Roll-Off: A Test of Three Explanations

The authors use the 1993 municipal election in Atlanta, Georgia, and a special election to fill two vacancies on the Fulton County (Georgia) Commission to test ballot-confusion, saliency-of-the-contest, and voter-fatigue explanations for roll-off (ballot noncompletion). No evidence of the ballot-confusion explanation is found, but some evidence of voter fatigue and contest visibility is apparent. Racial differences in roll-off have implications for the responsiveness of public officials and the creation of single-member districts.

Regional Realignment from an Officeholding Perspective

Most of the scholarship on realignment has relied on information about party identification and much of it has concentrated on national patterns. An analysis of partisan victories in five types of offices for each of six regions reveals variation in the fortunes of the parties over the last thirty years. For all offices, Republican strength has grown appreciably in the Mountain West and the South. Generally, GOP gains came first in statewide contests and then spread to lower offices. In most of the rest of the country, Democrats have become more successful at winning legislative offices despite a notable lack of success in winning the presidency. The shifts have been of such magnitude that the identity of the party holding a majority of the offices has changed in most of the regions outside the South. In the South, impressive gains have been registered by the GOP, but its strength was so minimal thirty years ago that it remains the minority party at the legislative level.

Worth a Thousand Words?: An Analysis of Georgia's Voter Identification Statute

Georgia has joined the states seeking to require the presentation of a picture identification (ID) card, such as a Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV)—issued ID, before a person can vote. Opponents charge that this requirement makes it more difficult for minorities, the elderly, the poor, and those living in rural areas to participate. We examine these claims by determining which registered voters lack a DMV-issued photo ID. Multivariate models show that African Americans, Hispanics, and the elderly are less likely to have a DMV-issued photo ID. Having a photo ID is unrelated to income measured at the zip code level. Those registrants lacking photo IDs were less likely to have voted in general elections in 2004 and 2006 compared to other registrants. In addition, voters without photo identification were more likely to have voted in the 2006 but not the 2004 Democratic primary.

Racist or Racial Voting in the 1981 Atlanta Municipal Elections

Some recent municipal elections have been interpreted as indicating that Americas cities are becoming more polarized on the dimension of race. It has been hypothesized that the results observed in Atlanta in 1981 and Chicago in 1983 presage an era of voting along racial lines. This article advances an alternative hypothesis: Voters who support candidates of their own race often do so simply because they have no particular reason not to. Specifically, there may be no issue-based reason to cross racial lines. Using both precinct-level and survey data from the 1981 Atlanta municipal elections, the analysis estimates the levels of racial voting (the coincidence of a racial tie between voter and candidate), racist voting (the vote for a candidate of ones own race when an issue-based motive exists to support a candidate of the opposite race), and crossover voting.

Municipal Electoral Structure and the Election of Councilwomen

A survey of the 946 American cities having populations in excess of 25,000 in 1980 reveals very little relationship between election structures and the presence of women on their councils. These results hold for the full data set as well as for four regional subsets. The evidence does not sustain the desirability hypothesis that suggests women will less often be elected in cities where the position is more valued. Women serve somewhat more frequently in the West, as expected, however, the proposition that the South will have a small proportion female on its councils is not borne out.

Freshman Committee Assignments and Re-election in the United States House of Representatives

Two students of the committee assignment process, Nicholas Masters and Charles Clapp, as well as some congressmen, assert that the most crucial factor in filling committee vacancies is whether the appointment will enhance the recipients chance of re-election. This statement is tested using data for Republican and Northern Democratic freshmen elected to the House between 1947 and 1967. The freshmen are grouped on the basis of assumptions about which assignment or assignments should help them win re-election. When narrowly elected and safe freshmen are compared, there is no evidence that the former more frequently receive assignments likely to facilitate re-election. Thus there is no support for the Masters-Clapp proposition. Investigation further reveals that even those freshmen from marginal districts who are awarded “good” appointments are not re-elected significantly more often than are comparable newcomers having less favorable assignments. Committee assignments therefore seem relatively unimportant in determining whether a congressman wins a sophomore term. Indeed, more than 70 per cent of the freshmen who triumphed in hotly contested races to reach the House are returned. When these incumbents are defeated it is typically as a result of nation-wide forces over which they exercise little if any control. The implications of this research are that congressmen have a greater range of alternatives than is often thought. Even the narrowly elected novice is relatively free to seek appointment to committees for reasons other than constituency service or promotion. Largely symbolic activities are available through which concern for the district and its problems and needs can be demonstrated, thereby freeing much of the congressmans time and attention to pursue other less parochial goals.

The Impact of Changing the Racial Composition of Congressional Districts on Legislators' Roll Call Behavior

The 1991-1992 redrawing of congressional districts produced the greatest changes of any remapping since the mid-1960s. In many states, particularly in the South, the driving force was the Justice Department demand that majority-minority districts be drawn wherever possible. In this article the author explores the consequences of changing the racial composition of districts on legislative behavior. A measure of conservatism and a measure of support for civil rights concerns serve as the dependent variables. Comparing voting records of southern legislators in 1993 with those from the 102nd Congress shows that freshman Republicans were particularly conservative and more senior representatives were often more conservative. Some evidence suggests that first-term Democrats were more liberal than their predecessors. At first it appeared that legislators modified their voting records in response to changes in the racial composition of their districts. Once further controls were imposed, it became clear that the relationship between constituency change and roll call voting was limited to Black legislators who replaced Whites.