Ronald Keith Gaddie

State Rainy Day Funds and Fiscal Crises: Rainy Day Funds and the 1990-1991 Recession Revisited

The recession of the early 1980s prompted many states to establish budget stabilization (rainy day) funds. Initial examinations of rainy day funds find a limited impact by the funds in alleviating fiscal stress. In this article, we propose an enhanced model of rainy day fund impact. Using data from 48 states for the 1990-1991 recession, our analysis indicates that the presence of a number of structural factors and the maintenance of generally large balances in other funds entering recession helps to alleviate fiscal stress when a states economy is in recession.

Candidate Sex and Congressional Elections: Open Seats Before, During, and After the Year of the Woman

Abstract In 1992, an unprecedented number of women were elected to Congress. This election seemed to debunk the notion of female disadvantage as female candidates ran better than males. Since 1992, however, female candidates have failed to compete as effectively as men in congressional elections, again raising the specter of a sex bias. In this paper, we examine 365 open seat congressional elections held since 1982 in order to ascertain whether the indicators of female success in the 1980s and early 1990s structured female candidate success and/or failure after 1992. For this study, these indicators include candidate attributes such as financial quality and candidate experience. Our examination indicates that candidate attributes have significantly weakened as predictors of open seat election outcomes, especially in female versus male races. Instead, a strong increase in the correlation of the presidential normal vote and the congressional vote in open seats since 1992 indicates the emergence of elections where candidate attributes are secondary to the partisanship of the district. Female versus male races demonstrate much higher partisan coherence than all-male open seat contests, and Democratic women run about six points behind Republican women when district partisanship is controlled. These factors, combined with the increasingly Democratic distribution of female nominations, mitigate against female gains through open seats after 1992.

The Consolidation of the White Southern Congressional Vote

This article explores the initial desertion and continued realignment of about one-sixth of the white voters in the South who, until 1994, stood by Democratic congressional candidates even as they voted for Republican presidential nominees. Prior to 1994, a sizable share of the white electorate distinguished between Democratic congressional and presidential candidates; since 1994 that distinction has been swept away. In 1992, a majority of white southern voters was casting their ballot for the Democratic House nominee; by 1994, the situation was reversed and 64 percent cast their ballot for the Republican. Virtually all categories of voters increased their support of Republican congressional candidates in 1994 and the following elections further cement GOP congressional support in the South. Subsequent elections are largely exercises in partisanship, as the congressional votes mirror party preferences. Republicans pull nearly all GOP identifiers, most independents, and a sizeable minority of Democratic identifiers. Democrats running for Congress no longer convince voters that they are different from their party’s presidential standard bearers—a group that has consistently been judged unacceptable to overwhelming proportions of the southern white electorate.

The Electoral Consequences of Voting to Declare War

The conventional wisdom of national elections suggests that there are electoral costs associated with opposing declarations of war. However, an alternative literature contends that the negative electoral consequences of waging war may be borne by legislators who supported war, especially those members of the majority party. The authors test this assumption by examining the electoral consequences of supporting or opposing the declarations of war for the Mexican-American War, World War I, and the 1991 resolution to use force in the Persian Gulf. The results of their analysis of House elections indicate that although electoral costs were borne for opposing World War I, legislators who dissented often preselected themselves out of Congress through retirement or pursuit of other office. No evidence of electoral costs is evident in the wake of the Persian Gulf War, due in part to the influence of intervening events during the long period between the end of the war and the 1992 election.

Congressional Seat Swings: Revisiting Exposure in House Elections

Oppenheimer, Stimson, and Watermans exposure thesis of partisan change contends that shifts in the partisan composition of Congress are related to the long-term stability of the electoral system. Applying their exposure model to elections from 1962-1994 produces seat change estimates that generally follow the actual data pattern, but these estimates produce large predictive errors. When the exposure model is reestimated using data from 1962-1994, exposure is not significantly related to partisan seat swings. This article advances a seat change model that relies on an alter nate measure of exposure: the net exposure of the presidents party in open seats. Open-seat exposure is significantly related to the partisan seat swing, and substantially improves on the economic evaluation/surge and-decline/ exposure model of seat change. In an era of high incumbent security and strategic retirement from Congress, the balance of open seats is a better indicator of partisan vulnerability, and better reflects the nature of partisan exposure.

System Structure, Campaign Stimuli, and Voter Falloff in Runoff Primaries

In a model that relies entirely on legal and structural factors, Wright (1989) seeks to account for changes in voter participation from the initial primary to the runoff. This article tests an alternative, campaign-centered model of voter turnout in 109 congressional runoffs from 1982 through 1996. The analysis indicates that candidate-centered factors, including the amount of money expended by the candidates in the runoff and the political experience of the primary leader, influence turnout in runoff primaries. Generally, when more money is spent during the runoff, voter participation declines less relative to the initial primary, suggesting that a more stimulated political environment encourages greater participation. Spending before the initial primary is less influential than spending between the primary and runoff in maintaining voter turnout, which indicates that any potential effects from stimulation of the environment in the prior campaign have largely dissipated by the time of the second election.

Structural and Elite Features in Open Seat and Special U.S. House Elections: Is There a Sexual Bias?

Conventional wisdom long held that there was a bias against women in elections. Subsequent research indicates that men and women who challenge for elective office confront a common barrier: incumbency. In this article we extend our previous research on women in open seat elec tions by examining the performance of women who compete in special elections. Female candidate emergence in special House contests is slightly higher than in regular open seats. Using multivariate regression models, our analysis uncovered no bias against women in special elections. Over all, the performance of women in special elections and open seats indi cates that disruptions of the political status quo by the sudden vacancy creates opportunities that women exploit with effectiveness, although the low level of female candidate emergence limits the growth of descriptive female representation.

When Experience Fails: The Experience Factor in Congressional Runoffs

Ambition theory identifies political experience as a major correlate of holding higher office. We explore the possibility that under certain conditions, political experience may do little to promote election. Specifically, in runoff primaries experience may not promote a candidates prospects for nomination. When an experienced candidate, such as a former state legislator, fails to win a majority in the initial primary, it may indicate that any advantages derived from experience have been discounted by the electorate. The relationship between experience and runoff election success is explored using 87 U.S. House elections from 1982 through 1994. The evidence shows that in runoffs experienced candidates who led their primaries have no advantage, while the greater the experience of the primary runner-up, the more likely it is that the front-runner will be nominated.

Investing in the Future Economic Political Action Committee Contributions to Open-Seat House Candidates

The preponderance of literature on political action committees (PACs) focuses on the incumbent-oriented contribution strategies of PACs. Contributions to open-seat candidates remain unexplored. This study examines contributions by four major economic PAC cohorts to open-seat House campaigns from 1982 to 1988. Political action committees pursued precise contribution strategies when giving to open-seat candidates and responded to a variety of candidate attributes and national electoral influences. Corporate and trade PACs displayed evolving, bipartisan strategies, whereas labor PACs exclusively supported Democrats. These results suggest that interest groups pursue sophisticated contribution strategies in open-seat elections that resemble the influence and access strategies pursued when giving to incumbents. Interest group-legislator relationships exist before new members assume office, and these preexisting relationships merit consideration in efforts at congressional electoral reform. In particular, the claim that term limit reforms will break interest group linkages to Congress may be unfounded and merits further exploration.

Religious Nationalism and Perceptions of Muslims and Islam

We test for relationships between anti-Muslim attitudes and opinion and competing religious identity and religious belief variables in an evangelical Christian constituency. Original survey data from a statewide sample of 508 likely voters in Oklahoma are subjected to a robust regression analysis to determine (1) indicators of holding Christian nationalist beliefs and (2) the relationship between belief measures of Christian nationalism, evangelical Christian identity, and subsequent anti-Muslim sentiment. Christian nationalism is more prevalent among self-identified evangelicals. Christian nationalist beliefs and strong belief in Biblical literalism are significantly related to negative and restrictive views of Muslims. Anti-Muslim sentiments in the form of general disapproval and the desire to limit Muslim worship are shaped more by beliefs than identities or behaviors. Evangelical self-identification does not help us disentangle domestic opinion regarding Muslims as well as measures that disentangle beliefs from identity.