Christian Dudel

Working Life Expectancy at Age 50 in the United States and the Impact of the Great Recession

A key concern about population aging is the decline in the size of the economically active population. Working longer is a potential remedy. However, little is known about the length of working life and how it relates to macroeconomic conditions. We use the U.S. Health and Retirement Study for 1992–2011 and multistate life tables to analyze working life expectancy at age 50 and study the impact of the Great Recession in 2007–2009. Despite declines of one to two years following the recession, in 2008–2011, American men aged 50 still spent 13 years, or two-fifths of their remaining life, working; American women of the same age spent 11 years, or one-third of their remaining life, in employment. Although educational differences in working life expectancy have been stable since the mid-1990s, racial differences started changing after the onset of the Great Recession. Our results show that although Americans generally work longer than people in other countries, considerable subpopulation heterogeneity exists. We also find that the time trends are fluctuating, which may prove troublesome as the population ages. Policies targeting the weakest performing groups may be needed to increase the total population trends.

The Demographic Dilemma: Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation and Future Growth in Germany 2007-2060

The aim of this paper is to show possible consequences of changes in labor force participation of women and the connection between fertility and labor force participation on the future demographic and economic development in Germany. For this purpose a projection model based on micro-data covering the population development as well as the development of the labor force is computed for different scenarios, varying in the extent of changes in female participation rates. The results point to a sharp decline in size of the total population and labor force as well as on negative effects of demographic development on growth, mediated through incompatibility of fertility and participation. It is argued that this incompatibility leads to a demographic dilemma, imposing negative effects on growth either in short or in long term.

Estimating men’s fertility from vital registration data with missing values

Comparative perspectives on men’s fertility are still rare, in part because vital registration data are often missing paternal age information for a substantial number of births. We compare two imputation approaches that attempt to estimate men’s age-specific fertility rates and related measures for data in which paternal age information is missing for a non-negligible number of cases. Taking births with paternal age information as a reference, the first approach uses the unconditional paternal age distribution, while the second approach considers the paternal age distribution conditional on the maternal age. To assess the performance of these two methods, we conduct simulations that mimic vital registration data for Sweden, the United States, Spain, and Estonia. In these simulations, we vary the overall proportion and the age selectivity of missing values. We find that the conditional approach outperforms the unconditional approach in the majority of simulations and therefore should be generally preferred.

A Nonparametric Partially Identified Estimator for Equivalence Scales

Methods for estimating equivalence scales usually rely on rather strong identifying assumptions. This paper considers a partially identified estimator for equivalence scales derived from the potential outcomes framework and using nonparametric methods for estimation, which requires only mild assumptions. Instead of point estimates, the method yields only lower and upper bounds of equivalence scales. Results of an analysis using German expenditure data show that the range implied by these bounds is rather wide, but can be reduced using additional covariates.