Sebastian Klüsener

The Patriarchy Index: A New Measure of Gender and Generational Inequalities in the Past

This article presents a new measure of family-driven age- and gender-related inequalities. This composite measure, which we call the Patriarchy Index, combines a range of variables related to familial behavior that reflect varying degrees of sex- and age-related social inequality across different family settings. We demonstrate the comparative advantages of the index by showing how 266 historical populations from the Atlantic coast of Europe to Moscow scored on the patriarchy scale. We then compare the index with contemporary measures of gender discrimination, and find a strong correlation between historical and current inequality patterns. Finally, we explore how variation in patriarchy levels across Europe is related to the socioeconomic and institutional characteristics of the regional populations, and to variation across these regions in their degree of demographic centrality and environmental conditions. The results confirm previous findings that family organization is a crucial generator of social inequality, and point to the importance of considering the historical context when analyzing the current global contours of inequality.

Spatial variation in non-marital fertility across Europe in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: recent trends, persistence of the past, and potential future pathways

This article investigates spatiotemporal variation in non-marital fertility across Europe over the last 100 years. In the first 50 years of this period, non-marital fertility was generally declining, reaching very low levels in the mid-twentieth century. But starting in the 1960s, non-marital fertility increased strongly. The main aim of this paper is to investigate to what degree the persistence of the past might be relevant for understanding spatial aspects of the recent rise. A secondary aim is to explore how spatial non-marital fertility variation is likely to develop in the future, both between and within countries. The outcomes support the view that historical patterns are relevant for understanding current non-marital fertility variation in most parts of Europe. However, the persistence of the past varies spatially, and seems to fade over time. The analysis of current trends in spatial variation between countries suggests that an east–west dichotomy is currently emerging: i.e., countries that are not in the European Union and that have Orthodox Christian or Muslim traditions exhibit higher propensities to remain at or to revert to comparatively low levels of non-marital fertility. Within Northwestern Europe, suburban belts around big cities appear to be the last strongholds of marital fertility.

Economic stress or random variation? Revisiting German reunification as a natural experiment to investigate the effect of economic contraction on sex ratios at birth

BackgroundThe economic stress hypothesis (ESH) predicts decreases in the sex ratio at birth (SRB) following economic decline. However, as many factors influence the SRB, this hypothesis is difficult to test empirically. Thus, researchers make use of quasi-experiments such as German reunification: The economy in East, but not in West Germany, underwent a rapid decline in 1991. A co-occurrence of a decline in the East German SRB in 1991 has been interpreted by some as support for the ESH. However, another explanation might be that the low SRB in 1991 stems from increased random variation in the East German SRB due to a drastically reduced number of births during the crisis. We look into this alternative random variation hypothesis (RVH) by re-examining the German case with more detailed data.MethodsOur analysis has two parts. First, using aggregate-level birth register data for all births in the period between 1946 and 2011, we plot the quantum and variance of the SRB and the number of births and unemployment rates, separately for East and West Germany, and conduct a time series analysis on the East German SRB over time. Second, we model the odds for a male birth at the individual level in a multiple logistic regression (1991–2010, ~13.9 million births). Explanatory variables are related to the level of the individual birth, the mother of the child born, and the regional economic context.ResultsThe aggregate-level analysis reveals a higher degree of variation of the SRB in East Germany. Deviations from the time trend occur in several years, seemingly unrelated to economic development, and the deviation in 1991 is not statistically significant. The individual-level analysis confirms that the 1991-drop in the East German SRB cannot directly be attributed to economic development and that there is no statistically significant effect of economic development on sex determination in East or West Germany.ConclusionOutcomes support the RVH but not the ESH. Furthermore, our results speak against a statistically significant effect of the reunification event itself on the East German SRB. We discuss the relative importance of behavioral and physiological responses to macro-level stressors, a distinction that may help integrate previously mixed findings.

The East-West Gradient in Spatial Population Development Within Germany

Abstract. Since Germanys unification in 1990, the former communist eastern part has experienced substantial out-migration toward western Germany. This article explores whether this is predominantly a temporary phenomenon related to the post-communist transition crisis, or whether longstanding geographic disparities in economic development also play a role. In particular, we are interested in whether long-term trends are shaped by the fact that parts of western Germany belong to the so-called European dorsal that has long been the most important center of economic activity in Europe. We address the question by investigating spatial population trends over the last two centuries. Findings suggest that longstanding geographical disparities are relevant. However, prior to 1945, population concentration in western Germany was not focused on the European dorsal region.

Exploring the Role of Communication in Shaping Fertility Transition Patterns in Space and Time

The fertility decline during the demographic transition is often viewed within the frameworks of innovation and adjustment. According to the innovation perspective, this process is mostly driven by the diffusion of new knowledge and attitudes, whereas in the adaptationist perspective fertility decline is seen primarily as an adaptation to changing circumstances. In this contribution, we present models that allow us to simulate fertility declines that are solely driven by the diffusion of information structured by social and spatial variation in communication links. Using these models, we explore the question of whether observed social and spatiotemporal patterns of the fertility transition could be shaped by communication processes alone. The potential of these models is explored in a case study of Sweden. We run simulations on a full individual-level sample of the married female population aged 20–49 in 1880, which is around the time when the fertility transition started in Sweden. The population is divided into three social classes (elite, farmers, workers and others). As proxies for communication links, we use migration links. The simulation outcomes are contrasted with the observed fertility decline patterns in Sweden between 1880 and 1900. Our simulations demonstrate that communication structured by social and spatial variation in communication links could have shaped a substantial share of the observed social class and spatiotemporal characteristics of the fertility decline during the demographic transition.

Estimating men’s fertility from vital registration data with missing values

Comparative perspectives on men’s fertility are still rare, in part because vital registration data are often missing paternal age information for a substantial number of births. We compare two imputation approaches that attempt to estimate men’s age-specific fertility rates and related measures for data in which paternal age information is missing for a non-negligible number of cases. Taking births with paternal age information as a reference, the first approach uses the unconditional paternal age distribution, while the second approach considers the paternal age distribution conditional on the maternal age. To assess the performance of these two methods, we conduct simulations that mimic vital registration data for Sweden, the United States, Spain, and Estonia. In these simulations, we vary the overall proportion and the age selectivity of missing values. We find that the conditional approach outperforms the unconditional approach in the majority of simulations and therefore should be generally preferred.

Is a Positive Relationship Between Fertility and Economic Development Emerging at the Sub-National Regional Level? Theoretical Considerations and Evidence from Europe

Evidence for nation-states suggests that the long-standing negative relationship between fertility and economic development might turn positive at high levels of development. The robustness of the reversal continues to be debated. We add to this discussion from a novel angle by considering whether such a reversal could also occur at the sub-national level within highly developed countries. Our contributions are both theoretical and empirical. We first discuss important trends which might foster the emergence of a positive fertility–development relationship across regions of highly developed countries. These include shifts in family policies, changes in the spatial organisation of the economic sphere, and selective international and internal migration processes. In order to explore whether we observe tendencies towards a reversal, we investigate data covering 20 European countries subdivided in 256 regions between 1990 and 2012. We document a weakening of the negative relationship between fertility and economic development within many countries, and among some countries the emergence of a positive relationship. These findings do not seem to be driven by postponement effects alone. However, there is substantial variation in the fertility and the economic development levels at which such tendencies towards a reversal are observed.

Regionale Mortalitätsunterschiede in Deutschland

Regionale Unterschiede in der Sterblichkeit in Deutschland erweisen sich kurzfristig betrachtet als relativ stabil. Im Laufe des letzten Jahrhunderts wurden allerdings deutliche Veranderungen in den regionalen Sterblichkeitsmustern verzeichnet. Hierzu zahlt nicht nur das Wiederauftreten ausgepragter Ost-West-Unterschiede ab 1970, die in den Jahrzehnten nach der deutschen Wiedervereinigung 1990 fast wieder verschwunden sind. Vielmehr haben sich auch substanzielle Verschiebungen zwischen Nord- und Suddeutschland ergeben. Zu Beginn des 20. Jahrhunderts registrierten die norddeutschen Regionen die hochsten Lebenserwartungsniveaus, wahrend die suddeutschen Landesteile die niedrigsten verzeichneten. Uber die letzten 100 Jahre hat sich dieses raumliche Muster weitgehend umgekehrt. In diesem Beitrag analysieren wir die langfristigen Entwicklungen der raumlichen Mortalitatsunterschiede in Deutschland seit 1910. Die beobachteten Veranderungen setzen wir in Bezug zu theoretischen Uberlegungen und existierenden Forschungsergebnissen zu moglichen Ursachen fur regionale Mortalitatstrends. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen auf, dass sich die Zusammensetzung der masgeblich zur Entwicklung der regionalen Sterblichkeitsmuster beitragenden Faktoren uber die Zeit erheblich verandert hat. Auserdem scheint sich der Zusammenhang zwischen regionalen soziookonomischen Bedingungen und den registrierten Sterblichkeitsniveaus in den letzten 100 Jahren verstarkt zu haben.

Demographie und räumlicher Kontext

In diesem Beitrag wird ein theoriegeleiteter, praxisrelevanter Uberblick uber die Bedeutung des raumlichen Kontexts fur bevolkerungswissenschaftliche Fragestellungen gegeben. Dabei werden zunachst masgebliche Raumkonzepte vorgestellt. Im Hauptteil wird aufbauend auf der Theorie der Strukturation (Giddens 1984) zuerst aus einer Mikroperspektive heraus ausgefuhrt, inwieweit die raumzeitliche Verortung von Individuen menschliches Handeln und soziale Interaktion beeinflussen kann. Anschliesend wird aus einer Makroperspektive heraus auf die Raumwirksamkeit gesellschaftlicher Strukturen und Prozesse und die Ruckwirkungen auf das menschliche Handeln eingegangen. Danach werden anhand von Beispielen Potenziale aufgezeigt, wie in der bevolkerungswissenschaftlichen Forschung durch die Einbeziehung raumtheoretischer Uberlegungen oder aufgrund neu verfugbarer raumlicher Daten neue Perspektiven eroffnet und Erkenntnisfortschritte erzielt werden konnen. Die Betrachtungen schliesen mit einer kurzen Erorterung statistischer Probleme, die sich bei der Analyse von Daten mit raumlichem Bezug ergeben konnen. Diese werden in bevolkerungswissenschaftlichen Studien haufig ignoriert, was zu Fehlinterpretationen der statistischen Ergebnisse fuhren kann.