Christian M. Grams

Uplift of Saharan dust south of the intertropical discontinuity

In situ observations from a flight made during the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget Intercomparison of Longwave and Shortwave Radiation (GERBILS) field campaign (June 2007) show significant dust uplift into the monsoon flow immediately south of the intertropical discontinuity in the western Sahara. Dust loadings were highest in the moist monsoon air and the observations are consistent with dust uplift by the nocturnal monsoon winds. There is some evidence that cold pools within the monsoon flow contributed to the dust uplift: regions of elevated dust, water vapor, and ozone within the monsoon air are consistent with precipitation cooling and moistening air from upper levels and the resultant dusty cold pools propagating northward. However, only southward propagating cold pool outflows could be observed in satellite imagery. Using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses and satellite data, it is shown that the asymmetry in the seasonal dust cycle is closely related to the downdraft convective available potential energy (DCAPE) from convective storms. There is both more dust and more DCAPE during monsoon onset than during retreat. The larger DCAPE values during monsoon onset, as well as the stronger nocturnal monsoon flow and the stronger heat trough circulation, are expected to contribute to the higher dust loadings at this time. Both the monsoon flow and cold pool outflows within it result in dust uplift in the western Sahara during the monsoon onset, which is when the maximum dust uplift occurs. For dust modeling, this shows the importance of accurately modeling not only the monsoon flow itself but also deep convection and cold pools.

Balancing Europe/'s wind-power output through spatial deployment informed by weather regimes

Summary As wind and solar power provide a growing share of Europe’s electricity1, understanding and accommodating their variability on multiple timescales remains a critical problem. On weekly timescales, variability is related to long-lasting weather conditions, called weather regimes2–5, which can cause lulls with a loss of wind power across neighbouring countries6. Here we show that weather regimes provide a meteorological explanation for multi-day fluctuations in Europe’s wind power and can help guide new deployment pathways which minimise this variability. Mean generation during different regimes currently ranges from 22 GW to 44 GW and is expected to triple by 2030 with current planning strategies. However, balancing future wind capacity across regions with contrasting inter-regime behaviour – specifically deploying in the Balkans instead of the North Sea – would almost eliminate these output variations, maintain mean generation, and increase fleet-wide minimum output. Solar photovoltaics could balance low-wind regimes locally, but only by expanding current capacity tenfold. New deployment strategies based on an understanding of continent-scale wind patterns and pan-European collaboration could enable a high share of wind energy whilst minimising the negative impacts of output variability.

The Key Role of Diabatic Outflow in Amplifying the Midlatitude Flow: A Representative Case Study of Weather Systems Surrounding Western North Pacific Extratropical Transition

AbstractRecurving tropical cyclones (TCs) undergoing extratropical transition (ET) may substantially modify the large-scale midlatitude flow pattern. This study highlights the role of diabatic outflow in midlatitude flow amplification within the context of a review of the physical and dynamical processes involved in ET. Composite fields of 12 western North Pacific ET cases are used as initial and boundary conditions for high-resolution numerical simulations of the North Pacific–North American sector with and without the TC present. It is demonstrated that a three-stage sequence of diabatic outflow associated with different weather systems is involved in triggering a highly amplified midlatitude flow pattern: 1) preconditioning by a predecessor rain event (PRE), 2) TC–extratropical flow interaction, and 3) downstream flow amplification by a downstream warm conveyor belt (WCB). An ensemble of perturbed simulations demonstrates the robustness of these stages. Beyond earlier studies investigating PREs, recurv...

A quantitative assessment of the sensitivity of the downstream midlatitude flow response to extratropical transition of tropical cyclones

During extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TC) reduced predictability for the midlatitude flow is often observed. In this study we assess the sensitivity of the midlatitude flow response to ET. To this end, a simple novel metric, the “equivalent forecast hour difference,” is introduced and applied to experimental simulations for eight recent ET events, in which the TC has been removed or relocated. Early during ET, the midlatitude flow response is sensitive to ridgebuilding directly downstream of the transitioning TC. In cases with strong ridgebuilding and Rossby wave triggering, the sensitivity remains high. The midlatitude flow response is even more sensitive to error in the initial position of the TC. This study newly quantifies the high degree of sensitivity of the downstream midlatitude flow response to ET. It corroborates the need for correct tropical cyclogenesis and TC track forecasts for improving midlatitude numerical weather prediction during ET.

European high-impact weather caused by the downstream response to the extratropical transition of North Atlantic Hurricane Katia (2011)

Tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition (ET) are thought to cause high-impact weather (HIW) close to the transitioning tropical cyclone and in remote regions. However, no study so far clearly attributed European HIW to the downstream impact of North Atlantic ET. When Hurricane Katia underwent ET in September 2011, severe thunderstorms occurred downstream in Central Europe. We quantify the role of Katia in the European HIW, using numerical sensitivity experiments. Results show that Katia was crucial for the evolution of a narrow downstream trough. Large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of this trough triggered deep convection. In the absence of ET, no trough was present over Europe and no HIW occurred. This study is the first unambiguous documentation that European HIW is caused by the downstream impact of North Atlantic ET and would not occur otherwise. It likewise corroborates the crucial role of ET in altering the large-scale midlatitude flow in downstream regions.

The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Cyclone Evolution and Direct Impacts

AbstractExtratropical transition (ET) is the process by which a tropical cyclone, upon encountering a baroclinic environment and reduced sea surface temperature at higher latitudes, transforms into an extratropical cyclone. This process is influenced by, and influences, phenomena from the tropics to the midlatitudes and from the meso- to the planetary scales to extents that vary between individual events. Motivated in part by recent high-impact and/or extensively observed events such as North Atlantic Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and western North Pacific Typhoon Sinlaku in 2008, this review details advances in understanding and predicting ET since the publication of an earlier review in 2003. Methods for diagnosing ET in reanalysis, observational, and model-forecast datasets are discussed. New climatologies for the eastern North Pacific and southwest Indian Oceans are presented alongside updates to western North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean climatologies. Advances in understanding and, in some cases, mode...

Exceptional Air Mass Transport and Dynamical Drivers of an Extreme Wintertime Arctic Warm Event

At the turn of the years 2015/2016, maximum surface temperature in the Arctic reached record-high values, exceeding the melting point, which led to a strong reduction of the Arctic sea ice extent in the middle of the cold season. Here we show, using a Lagrangian method, that a combination of very different airstreams contributed to this event: (i) warm low-level air of subtropical origin, (ii) initially cold low-level air of polar origin heated by surface fluxes, and (iii) strongly descending air heated by adiabatic compression. The poleward transport of these warm airstreams occurred along an intense low-level jet between a series of cyclones and a quasi-stationary anticyclone. The complex 3-D configuration that enabled this transport was facilitated by continuous warm conveyor belt ascent into the upper part of the anticyclone. This study emphasizes the combined role of multiple transport processes and transient synoptic-scale dynamics for establishing an extreme Arctic warm event.

Global Climatologies of Eulerian and Lagrangian Flow Features based on ERA-Interim

AbstractThis paper introduces a newly compiled set of feature-based climatologies identified from ERA-Interim (1979–2014). Two categories of flow features are considered: (i) Eulerian climatologies of jet streams, tropopause folds, surface fronts, cyclones and anticyclones, blocks, and potential vorticity streamers and cutoffs and (ii) Lagrangian climatologies, based on a large ensemble of air parcel trajectories, of stratosphere–troposphere exchange, warm conveyor belts, and tropical moisture exports. Monthly means of these feature climatologies are openly available at the ETH Zurich web page (http://eraiclim.ethz.ch) and are annually updated. Datasets at higher resolution can be obtained from the authors on request. These feature climatologies allow studying the frequency, variability, and trend of atmospheric phenomena and their interrelationships across temporal scales. To illustrate the potential of this dataset, boreal winter climatologies of selected features are presented and, as a first applicati...

The North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment

Multi-aircraft and ground-based observations were made over the North Atlantic in fall 2016 to investigate the importance of diabatic processes for midlatitude weather. The North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment (NAWDEX) explored the impact of diabatic processes on disturbances of the jet stream and their influence on downstream high-impact weather through the deployment of four research aircraft, each with a sophisticated set of remote-sensing and in situ instruments, and coordinated with a suite of ground-based measurements. A total of 49 research flights were performed, including, for the first time, coordinated flights of the four aircraft; the German High Altitude and LOng Range Research Aircraft (HALO), the Deutsches Zentrum fur Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) Dassault Falcon 20, the French Service des Avions Francais Instrumentes pour la Recherche en Environnement (SAFIRE) Falcon 20, and the British Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe 146. The observation period from 17 Sep to 22 Oct 2016 with frequently occurring extratropical and tropical cyclones was ideal to investigate midlatitude weather over the North Atlantic. NAWDEX featured three sequences of upstream triggers of waveguide disturbances, their dynamic interaction with the jet stream, subsequent development, and eventual downstream weather impact on Europe. Examples are presented to highlight the wealth of phenomena that were sampled, the comprehensive coverage and the multi-faceted nature of the measurements. This unique dataset forms the basis for future case studies and detailed evaluations of weather and climate predictions to improve our understanding of diabatic influences on Rossby waves and downstream impact of weather systems affecting Europe.

Enhanced Tropospheric Wave Forcing of Two Anticyclones in the Prephase of the January 2009 Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming Event

AbstractTropospheric forcing of planetary wavenumber 2 is examined in the prephase of the major stratospheric sudden warming event in January 2009 (MSSW 2009). Because of a huge increase in Eliassen–Palm fluxes induced mainly by wavenumber 2, easterly angular momentum is transported into the Arctic stratosphere, deposited, and then decelerates the polar night jet. In agreement with earlier studies, the results reveal that the strongest eddy heat fluxes, associated with wavenumber 2, occur at 100 hPa during the prephase of MSSW 2009 in ERA-Interim. In addition, moderate conditions of the cold phase of ENSO (La Nina) contribute to the eddy heat flux anomaly. It is shown that enhanced tropospheric wave forcing over Alaska and Scandinavia is caused by tropical processes in two ways. First, in a climatological sense, La Nina contributes to an enhanced anticyclonic flow over both regions. Second, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) has an indirect influence on the Alaskan ridge by enhancing eddy activity over t...