Heini Wernli

A 15-Year Climatology of Warm Conveyor Belts

This study presents the first climatology of so-called warm conveyor belts (WCBs), strongly ascending moist airstreams in extratropical cyclones that, on the time scale of 2 days, rise from the boundary layer to the upper troposphere. The climatology was constructed by using 15 yr (1979‐93) of reanalysis data and calculating 355 million trajectories starting daily from a 1 83 18 global grid at 500 m above ground level (AGL). WCBs were defined as those trajectories that, during a period of 2 days, traveled northeastward and ascended by at least 60% of the zonally and climatologically averaged tropopause height. The mean specific humidity at WCB starting points in different regions varies from 7 to 12 g kg 21. This moisture is almost entirely precipitated out, leading to an increase of potential temperature of 15‐22 K along a WCB trajectory. Over the course of 3 days, a WCB trajectory produces, on average, about four (six) times as much precipitation as a global (extratropical) average trajectory starting from 500 m AGL. WCB starting points are most frequently located between approximately 258 and 458N and between about 208 and 458S. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), there are two distinct frequency maxima east of North America and east of Asia, whereas there is much less zonal variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). In the NH, WCBs are almost an order of magnitude more frequent in January than in July, whereas in the SH the seasonal variation is much weaker. In order to study the relationship between WCBs and cyclones, an independent cyclone climatology was used. Most of the WCBs were found in the vicinity of a cyclone center, whereas the reverse comparison revealed that cyclones are normally accompanied by a strong WCB only in the NH winter. In the SH, this is not the case throughout the year. Particularly around Antarctica, where cyclones are globally most frequent, practically no strong WCBs are found. These cyclones are less influenced by diabatic processes and, thus, they are associated with fewer high clouds and less precipitation than cyclones in other regions. In winter, there is a highly significant correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the WCB distribution in the North Atlantic: In months with a high NAO index, WCBs are about 12% more frequent and their outflow occurs about 10 8 latitude farther north and 208 longitude farther east than in months with a low NAO index. The differences in the WCB inflow regions are relatively small between the two NAO phases. During high phases of the Southern Oscillation, WCBs occur more (less) frequent around Australia (in the South Atlantic).

HYMEX , a 10-year Multidisciplinary Program on the mediterranean water cycle.

The Mediterranean countries are experiencing important challenges related to the water cycle, including water shortages and floods, extreme winds, and ice/snow storms, that impact critically the socioeconomic vitality in the area (causing damage to property, threatening lives, affecting the energy and transportation sectors, etc.). There are gaps in our understanding of the Mediterranean water cycle and its dynamics that include the variability of the Mediterranean Sea water budget and its feedback on the variability of the continental precipitation through air–sea interactions, the impact of precipitation variability on aquifer recharge, river discharge, and soil water content and vegetation characteristics specific to the Mediterranean basin and the mechanisms that control the location and intensity of heavy precipitating systems that often produce floods. The Hydrological Cycle in Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) program is a 10-yr concerted experimental effort at the international level that aims to advance the scientific knowledge of the water cycle variability in all compartments (land, sea, and atmosphere) and at various time and spatial scales. It also aims to improve the processes-based models needed for forecasting hydrometeorological extremes and the models of the regional climate system for predicting regional climate variability and evolution. Finally, it aims to assess the social and economic vulnerability to hydrometeorological natural hazards in the Mediterranean and the adaptation capacity of the territories and populations therein to provide support to policy makers to cope with water-related problems under the influence of climate change, by linking scientific outcomes with related policy requirements.

IMILAST: A Community Effort to Intercompare Extratropical Cyclone Detection and Tracking Algorithms

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset—the period 1989–2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of wea...

Surface Cyclones in the ERA-40 Dataset (1958–2001). Part I: Novel Identification Method and Global Climatology

Abstract A novel method is introduced to generate climatological frequency distributions of meteorological features from gridded datasets. The method is used here to derive a climatology of extratropical cyclones from sea level pressure (SLP) fields. A simple and classical conception of cyclones is adopted where a cyclone is identified as the finite area that surrounds a local SLP minimum and is enclosed by the outermost closed SLP contour. This cyclone identification procedure can be applied to individual time instants, and climatologies of cyclone frequency, fc, are obtained by simple time averaging. Therefore, unlike most other climatologies, the method is not based on the application of a tracking algorithm and considers the size of cyclones. In combination with a conventional cyclone center tracking algorithm that allows the determination of cyclone life times and the location of cyclogenesis and cyclolysis, additional frequency fields can be obtained for special categories of cyclones that are gener...

IMILAST – a community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties.

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset—the period 1989–2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of wea...

Heavy precipitation on the alpine southside: An upper‐level precursor

Analyses of four separate autumnal events of very heavy precipitation on the southern slopes of the European Alps indicate that each was accompanied by a strikingly similar anomaly at upper-tropospheric levels. It took the form of a narrow (∼500km), deep (∼4km) and elongated (∼2000 km) streamer of intruded stratospheric air [sic. high potential vorticity air] extending north-south from the British Isles to the western Mediterranean. In each case the streamer translated comparatively slowly eastward, and the storm event ensued as its forward flank approached the Alpine ridge. Empirical indicators and theoretical considerations support the thesis that the streamer is an ubiquitous, dynamically significant, and distinctive precursor of storms on the Alpine southside.

SAL—A Novel Quality Measure for the Verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

A novel object-based quality measure, which contains three distinct components that consider aspects of the structure (S), amplitude (A), and location (L) of the precipitation field in a prespecified domain (e.g., a river catchment) is introduced for the verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF). This quality measure is referred to as SAL. The amplitude component A measures the relative deviation of the domain-averaged QPF from observations. Positive values of A indicate an overestimation of total precipitation; negative values indicate an underestimation. For the components S and L, coherent precipitation objects are separately identified in the forecast and observations; however, no matching is performed of the objects in the two datasets. The location component L combines information about the displacement of the predicted (compared to the observed) precipitation field’s center of mass and about the error in the weighted-average distance of the precipitation objects from the total field’s center of mass. The structure component S is constructed in such a way that positive values occur if precipitation objects are too large and/or too flat, and negative values if the objects are too small and/or too peaked. Perfect QPFs are characterized by zero values for all components of SAL. Examples with both synthetic precipitation fields and real data are shown to illustrate the concept and characteristics of SAL. SAL is applied to 4 yr of daily accumulated QPFs from a global and finer-scale regional model for a German river catchment, and the SAL diagram is introduced as a compact means of visualizing the results. SAL reveals meaningful information about the systematic differences in the performance of the two models. While the median of the S component is close to zero for the regional model, it is strongly positive for the coarser-scale global model. Consideration is given to the strengths and limitations of the novel quality measure and to possible future applications, in particular, for the verification of QPFs from convection-resolving weather prediction models on short time scales.

Dynamical aspects of the life cycle of the winter storm ‘Lothar’ (24–26 December 1999)

Dynamical aspects of the life cycle of the winter storm ‘Lothar’ (24–26 December 1999) are investigated with the aid of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analysis data and mesoscale model simulations. Neither of these datasets capture the full amplitude of the observed extreme pressure fall and surface wind speeds, but they do help identify a range of key dynamical and physical features that characterize the development of this unusual event. The analysis and interpretation is primarily based upon the evolution of the lower- and upper-level potential vorticity (PV) field complemented by three-dimensional trajectory calculations. ‘Lothar’ originated in the western Atlantic and travelled as a shallow low-level cyclone of moderate intensity towards Europe. This translation took place below and slightly to the south of a very intense upper-level jet and was accompanied by continuous and intense condensational heating that sustained a pronounced positive low-level PV anomaly (not unlike the concept of a ‘diabatic Rossby wave’). No significant PV anomalies were evident at the tropopause level during this early phase of the life cycle. The surface cyclone intensified rapidly when the shallow cyclone approached the jet-stream axis. The circulation induced by the diabatically produced low-tropospheric PV anomaly on steeply sloping isentropic surfaces that transect the intense upper-level jet contributed significantly to the rapid formation of a narrow and deep tropopause fold. This stratospheric PV anomaly virtually merged with the diabatically produced ephemeral PV feature to form a vertically aligned tower of positive PV at the time of maximum storm intensity. A sensitivity study with a dry adiabatic hindcast simulation shows no PV-tower configuration (and only a very weak surface development) and confirms the primary importance of the cloud diabatic heating for the tropopause fold formation and the rapid ‘bottom-up’ intensification of ‘Lothar’. A comparison of the anomalously high Atlantic sea surface temperatures in December 1999 with the water-vapour source regions for the latent-heat release that accompanied the rapid intensification phase of ‘Lothar’ shows a close relationship. This is of importance when discussing the possible implications of climate variability and change on the development of North Atlantic winter storms. Copyright

Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones: A Comparison of Detection and Tracking Methods and Different Reanalyses

Abstract The applicability of three different cyclone detection and tracking schemes is investigated with reanalysis datasets. First, cyclone climatologies and cyclone characteristics of the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) are compared with the NCEP–NCAR dataset using one method. ERA-40 shows systematically more cyclones, and therefore a higher cyclone center density, than the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis dataset. Geostrophically adjusted geopotential height gradients around cyclone centers, a measure of cyclone intensity, are enhanced in ERA-40 compared with the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis dataset. The variability of the number of cyclones per season is significantly correlated between the two reanalysis datasets, but time series of the extreme cyclone intensity exhibit a higher correlation. This suggests that the cyclone intensity is a more robust measure of variability than the number of cyclones. Second, three cyclone detection and tracking schemes are compared, based on the ERA-40 dataset. In general the schemes s...

A new perspective of stratosphere-troposphere exchange

Abstract Stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) is important for the chemical composition of both the stratosphere and troposphere. Modifications of STE in a changing climate may affect stratospheric ozone depletion and the oxidizing capacity of the troposphere significantly. However, STE is still poorly understood and inadequately quantified, due to the involvement of physical and dynamical processes on local to global scales and to conceptual problems. In this study, a present-day global climatology of STE is developed that is based, from a data standpoint, on 15 yr of global meteorological reanalyses, and, from a conceptual standpoint, on a Lagrangian perspective that considers the pathways of exchange air parcels and their residence times in the troposphere and lowermost stratosphere. To this end, two complementary Lagrangian models are used. Particular consideration is given to “deep” exchange events that, through fast ascent of tropospheric or fast descent of stratospheric air masses, bring into co...