Christian Saborowski

Trade Openness Reduces Growth Volatility When Countries are Well Diversified

This paper addresses the mechanisms by which trade openness affects growth volatility. Using a diverse set of export diversification indicators, it presents strong evidence pointing to an important role for export diversification in reducing the effect of trade openness on growth volatility. The authors also identify positive thresholds for product diversification at which the effect of openness on volatility changes sign. The effect is shown to be positive only for a minority of countries with highly concentrated export baskets. This result is shown to be robust to both explicit accounting for endogeneity as well as the inclusion of a host of additional controls.

Assessing the Determinants of Interest Rate Transmission Through Conditional Impulse Response Functions

We employ a structural panel VAR model with interaction terms to identify determinants of effective transmission from central bank policy rates to retail lending rates in a large country sample. The framework allows deriving country specific pass-through estimates broken down into the contributions of structural country characteristics and policies. The findings suggest that industrial economies tend to enjoy a higher pass-through largely on account of their more flexible exchange rate regimes and their more developed financial systems. The average pass-through in our sample increased from 30 to 60 percent between 2003 and 2008, mainly due to positive risk sentiment, rising inflation and increasingly diversified banking sectors. The crisis reversed this trend partly as banks increased precautionary liquidity holdings, non-performing loans proliferated and inflation moderated.

Export Diversification in a Transitioning Economy: The Case of Syria

How does the process of export diversification play out in a transitioning economy, especially in light of government policy aimed at trade liberalization? This paper examines this question by considering a directed policy effort by Syria -- an economy transitioning from both economic centralization and resource dependence -- to liberalize its trade in 2001. In addition to documenting the patterns of diversification at the aggregate level since the implementation of the policy, we also examine factors that are related to diversification at the sectoral level. Our findings suggest that, while Syria has achieved reasonably rapid export diversification, this may to a large extent be the result of structural transformations in the economy, and that further consolidation of diversification gains may require continued policy reform along the lines of strengthening Syrias weak institutional and business environment.

Trade finance in crisis : should developing countries establish export credit agencies ?

New data on export insurance and guarantees suggest that publicly backed export credit agencies have played a role to prevent a complete drying up of trade finance markets during the current financial crisis. Given that export credit agencies are mainly located in advanced and emerging economies, the question arises whether developing countries that are not equipped with these agencies should establish their own agencies to support exporting firms and avoid trade finance shortages in times of crisis. This paper highlights a number of issues requiring attention in the decision whether to establish such specialized financial institutions. It concludes that developing countries should consider export credit agencies only when certain pre-requirements in terms of financial capacity, institutional capability, and governance are met.

Effectiveness of Capital Outflow Restrictions

This paper examines the effectiveness of capital outflow restrictions in a sample of 37 emerging market economies during the period 1995-2010, using a panel vector autoregression approach with interaction terms. Specifically, it examines whether a tightening of outflow restrictions helps reduce net capital outflows. We find that such tightening is effective if it is supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals or good institutions, or if existing restrictions are already fairly comprehensive. When none of these three conditions is fulfilled, a tightening of restrictions fails to reduce net outflows as it provokes a sizeable decline in gross inflows, mainly driven by foreign investors.

Assessing the adjustment implications of trade policy changes using TRIST (tariff reform impact simulation tool)

TRIST is a simple, easy to use tool to assess the adjustment implications of trade reform. It improves on existing tools. First, it is an improvement in terms of accuracy because projections are based on revenues actually collected at the tariff line level rather than simply applying statutory rates. Second, it is transparent and open; runs in Excel, with formulas and calculation steps visible to the user; and is open-source and users are free to change, extend, or improve according to their needs. Third, TRIST has greater policy relevance because it projects the impact of tariff reform on total fiscal revenue (including VAT and excise) and results are broken down to the product level so that sensitive products or sectors can be identified. And fourth, the tool is flexible and can incorporate tariff liberalization scenarios involving any group of trading partners and any schedules of products. This paper describes the TRIST tool and provides a range of examples that demonstrate the insights that the tool can provide to policy makers on the adjustment impacts of reducing tariffs.

Export Diversification in a Transitioning Economy

How does the process of export diversification take place in an economy in transition, especially in light of government policy aimed at trade liberalization? This article examines this question by considering a directed policy effort by Syria – an economy in transition from both economic centralization and resource dependence – to liberalize its trade between 2001 and 2008. In addition to documenting the patterns of diversification at the aggregate level since the implementation of the policy, we also examine factors that are related to diversification at the sectoral level. Our findings suggest that, while Syria has achieved reasonably rapid export diversification, this may to a large extent be the result of structural transformations in the economy, and that further diversification may require continued policy reform designed to strengthen Syrias weak institutional and business environment.

Unconventional Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

This paper explores the direct effects and spillovers of unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies. We find that official purchases of foreign assets have a large positive effect on a countrys current account that diminishes considerably as capital mobility rises. There is an important additional effect through the lagged stock of official assets. Official purchases of domestic assets, or quantitative easing (QE), appear to have no significant effect on a countrys current account when capital mobility is high, but there is a modest positive impact when capital mobility is low. The effects of purchases of foreign assets spill over to other countries in proportion to their degree of international financial integration. We also find that increases in US bond yields are associated with increases in foreign bond yields and in stock prices, as well as with depreciations of foreign currencies, but that all of these effects are smaller on days of US unconventional monetary policy announcements. We develop a theoretical model that is broadly consistent with our empirical results and that highlights the potential usefulness of domestic unconventional policies as responses to the effects of foreign policies of a similar type.

Does Supply or Demand Drive the Credit Cycle? Evidence from Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe

Countries in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) experienced a credit boom-bust cycle in the last decade. This paper analyzes the roles of demand and supply factors in explaining this credit cycle. Our analysis first focuses on a large sample of bank-level data on credit growth for the entire CESEE region. We complement this analysis by five case studies (Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Poland, and Romania). Our results of the panel data analysis indicate that supply factors, on average and relative to demand factors, gained in importance in explaining credit growth in the post-crisis period. In the case studies, we find a similar result for Lithuania and Montenegro, but the other three case studies point to the fact that country experiences were heterogeneous.

The Relative Effectiveness of Spot and Derivatives Based Intervention; The Case of Brazil

This paper studies the relative effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in spot and derivatives markets. We make use of Brazilian data where spot and non-deliverable futures based intervention have been used in tandem for more than a decade. The analysis finds evidence in favor of a significant link between both modes of intervention and the first two moments of the real/dollar exchange rate. As predicted by theory for the case of negligible convertibility risk, the impact of spot market intervention in our baseline sample is strikingly similar to that achieved through futures based intervention worth an equivalent amount in notional principal.