Joseph E. Gagnon

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Pass-through

Recent research suggests that the pass-through of exchange rate changes into domestic inflation has declined in many countries since the 1980s. We develop a theoretical model that attributes the change in pass-through (defined as the correlation of inflation with exchange rate changes) to increased emphasis on inflation stabilization by many central banks. This hypothesis is tested on eleven industrial countries between 1971 and 2000. We find widespread evidence of both a decline in pass-through and a decline in the variability of inflation in the 1990s. We also find a statistically significant link between measured pass-through and inflation variability. However, our efforts to correlate the decline in pass-through with estimated changes in monetary policy behavior are inconclusive due to poor estimates of policy behavior.

Markup adjustment and exchange rate fluctuations: evidence from panel data on automobile exports

This paper uses bilateral automobile export unit values from the United States, Germany and Japan to measure the importance of markup adjustment that is associated with exchange rate changes across export destination markets. Japanese auto export prices exhibit a high degree of markup adjustment that has the effect of stabilizing prices in units of the buyers currency. There is weak evidence of this behavior in German auto exports and none for U.S. auto exports. Where it exists, markup adjustment is very persistent, not merely a short run phenomenon. The dynamic pattern of adjustment is consistent with invoicing in the exporters currency, except for exports to the United States and Canada.

Exchange rate variability and the level of international trade

There have been numerous theoretical and empirical studies of the effect of exchange rate variability on the level of international trade. Most theoretical studies have concluded that under reasonable assumptions exchange rate variability ought to depress the level of trade. Empirical studies generally have not identified a significant effect of exchange rate variability on trade flows. This paper builds a theoretical model in which exchange rate variability has a negative effect on the level of trade. The model is calibrated to observed trade flows and real exchange rates. Simulation of the model demonstrates that the effect of increasing exchange rate variability on trade flows is very small. These results are not sensitive to a wide range of parameter values. Moreover, reasonable extensions of the model only serve to minimize further the effect of exchange rate variability on trade flows.

Understanding the empirical literature on purchasing power parity: the post-Bretton Woods era

Abstract This paper argues that the empirical failure of statistical tests of PPP in post-Bretton Woods data is largely due to the low power of the tests employed. This result is demonstrated using Monte Carlo experiments on the size and power of different testing procedures. A new procedure based on Horvath and Watson ( Econometric Theory , 11 , pp. 984–1014, 1995) has greater power than previous approaches. Using the Horvath-Watson procedure we find moderate evidence in favor of PPP in the post-Bretton Woods era.

Adjustment costs and international trade dynamics

This paper develops a model of trader behavior that is characterized by quadra is adjustment costs, imperfect competition, and rational expectations. The model is fitted to data on aggregate trade flows between the United States and three of its largest trading partners. Tests against alternative specifications confirm the importance of imperfect competition and adjustment costs. The hypothesis of rational expectations cannot be rejected. The estimated price elasticities of trade flows are generally in the range reported by previous researchers, but the activity elasticities are significantly higher.

Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Export Prices: Assessing Some Cross-Country Evidence

A growing body of empirical work has found evidence of a decline in exchange rate pass-through to import prices in a number of industrial countries. Our paper complements this work by examining pass-through from the other side of the transaction; that is, we assess the exchange rate sensitivity of export prices (denominated in the exporters currency). We first sketch out a streamlined analytical model that highlights some key factors that determine pass-through. Using this model as reference, we find that the prices charged on exports to the United States are more responsive to the exchange rate than is the case for export prices to other destinations, which is consistent with results in the literature suggesting that import price pass-through in the U.S. market is relatively low. We also find that moves in the exchange rate sensitivity of export prices over time have been significantly affected by country and region-specific factors, including the Asian financial crisis (for emerging Asia), deepening integration with the United States (for Canada), and the effects of the 1992 ERM crisis (for the United Kingdom).

Productive Capacity, Product Varieties, and the Elasticities Approach to the Trade Balance

Most macroeconomic models imply that faster output growth tends to lower a countrys trade balance by raising its imports with little change to its exports. Krugman (1989) proposed a model in which countries grow by producing new varieties of goods. In his model, faster-growing countries are able to export these new goods and maintain balanced trade without suffering any deterioration in their terms of trade. This paper analyzes the growth of U.S. imports from different source countries and finds strong support for Krugmans model.

Solving the Stochastic Growth Model by Deterministic Extended Path

This article describes the use of the deterministic version of the extended-path algorithm to solve the simple stochastic growth model. The article also discusses the two sources of approximation error inherent in this method. It is demonstrated that the error due to numerical iterations is small. No general conclusion can be reached on the error that arises from the algorithms treatment of expectations. In at least two specific cases, however, this error appears to be small.

Long-run supply effects and the elasticities approach to trade

Krugman (1989) argued that differences across countries in estimated income elasticities of import demand are due to omission of an exporter supply effect. He showed that such an effect can be derived in a theoretical model with economies of scale in production and a taste for variety in consumption. In his model, countries grow by producing new varieties of goods, and they are able to export these goods without suffering any deterioration in their terms of trade. This paper analyzes U.S. import demand from different source countries and finds strong evidence of a supply effect of roughly half the magnitude (0.75) of the income elasticity (1.5). Price elasticities for the most part are estimated close to -1, which is typical for the literature. Exclusion of the supply effect leads to overestimation of the income elasticity. Results based on U.S. exports to different destinations are less robust, but largely corroborate these findings.

German Unification: What Have We Learned from Multi-Country Models?

This study reports on early simulations of the effects of German unification using three different rational-expectations multi-country models. Despite significant differences in their structures and in the implementations of the unification shock, the models delivered a number of common results that proved to be a reasonably accurate guide to the direction and magnitude of the effects of unification on most key macroeconomic variables. In particular, unification was expected to give rise to an increase in German aggregate demand that would put upward pressure on output, inflation, and the exchange rate, and downward pressure on the current account balance in Germany. The model simulations also highlighted the contractionary effects of high German interest rates on other member countries of the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Monetary System.