Tamim Bayoumi

Adjustment and growth in the European Monetary Union: Shocking aspects of European monetary integration

Introduction From all appearances the process of European monetary unification continues to gather momentum. Nearly four years have passed since the last significant realignment of exchange rates of members within the European monetary system (EMS). All significant controls on capital movements among member countries have been removed. Discussions of the establishment of a European central bank and a single currency are proceeding apace. If the current timetable is observed the transition will have been completed by the end of the decade. At the same time there remain serious questions about the advisability of a European Monetary Union (EMU) voiced, in the most recent round of discussions, by the governments of the United Kingdom and Spain. By definition, EMU involves a sacrifice of monetary autonomy. In response to country-specific shocks, governments will no longer have the option of adopting a monetary policy which differs from that of the union as a whole. Insofar as monetary policy is useful for facilitating adjustment to disturbances, adjustment problems may grow more persistent and difficult to resolve. These concerns are reinforced to the extent that it is believed that completion of the internal market will place new limits on the use of fiscal policy. Not only will individual governments have lost autonomy over the use of seigniorage to finance budget deficits but, insofar as the 1992 process renders factors of production increasingly mobile, constraints will be placed on their ability to impose tax rates significantly different from those of their neighbours.

Fiscal flows in the United States and Canada: Lessons for monetary union in Europe

Regional flows of federal taxes and transfers within the United States and Canada are used to analyse long-term fiscal flows (the redistributive element) and short-term responses to regional business cycles (the stabilization element). In the United States, long-run flows amount to 22 cents in the dollar while the stabilization effect is 31 cents in the dollar. In Canada the redistributive effect is larger (39 cents) and the stabilization effect smaller (17 cents). Federal flows appear to depend on the institutional structure of the country concerned. In both countries, however, the redistributive element is considerably larger than the amounts involved in the EC Structural Funds programme. As for stabilization, national fiscal policies in the EC appear to have been as effective as federal governments in the United States and Canada in cushioning shocks to incomes.

Ever Closer to Heaven? An Optimum-Currency-Area Index for European Countries

In this paper we develop a procedure for applying the core implications of the theory of optimum currency areas to cross-country data. We demonstrate that these implications find strong empirical support. The relationship between the characteristics of countries to which OCA theory points and the observed behavior of exchange rates seems sufficiently stable and robust to support simple forecasting. Extrapolating the independent variables, we therefore use our exchange rate equations to predict which countries will be best able to support stable exchange rates in the future -- equivalently, which are likely to be best prepared to be among the founding members of Europes monetary union.

Saving-Investment Correlations: Immobile Capital, Government Policy or Endogenous Behavior?

The high postwar correlations between saving and investment, both across countries and over time, are analyzed. A major reason for these correlations over the recent period is found to be government policy.

FINANCIAL DEREGULATION AND HOUSEHOLD SAVING

An overlapping generation model of the effects of financial deregulation is developed. The results indicate that deregulation will produce an exogenous short-run fall in saving, some of which will be recouped over time, while increasing the sensitivity of saving to wealth, current income, real interest rates and demographic factors. Empirical tests using regional saving data for the United Kingdom are reported, and found to generally accord with the theoretical model. It is estimated that deregulation caused an autonomous fall of 2 1/4% in the personal saving rate of the United Kingdom over the 1980s.

R&D Spillovers and Global Growth

We examine the growth promoting roles of R&D, international R&D spillovers, and trade in a world econometric model. A country can raise its total factor productivity by investing in R&D. But countries can also boost their productivity by trading with other countries that have large stocks of knowledge from their cumulative R&D activities. We use a special version of MULTIMOD that incorporates R&D spillovers among industrial countries and from industrial countries to developing countries. Our simulations suggest that R&D, R&D spillovers, and trade play important roles in boosting growth in industrial and developing countries.

Benefits and Spillovers of Greater Competition in Europe: A Macroeconomic Assessment

Using a general-equilibrium simulation model featuring nominal rigidities and monopolistic competition in product and labor markets, this paper estimates the macroeconomic benefits and international spillovers of an increase in competition. After calibrating the model to the euro area vs. the rest of the industrial world, the paper draws three conclusions. First, greater competition produces large effects on macroeconomic performance, as measured by standard indicators. In particular, we show that differences in competition can account for over half of the current gap in GDP per capita between the euro area and the US. Second, it may improve macroeconomic management by increasing the responsiveness of wages and prices to market conditions. Third, greater competition can generate positive spillovers to the rest of the world through its impact on the terms of trade.

Exchange Rate Volatility and Intervention: Implications of the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas

We show that the variables pointed to by the theory of optimum currency areas (OCAs) help to explain patterns of exchange rate variability and intervention across countries. But OCA considerations affect exchange market pressures and intervention in different ways. Exchange market pressures mainly reflect asymmetric shocks, while intervention largely reflects the variables that OCA theory suggests cause countries to value stable exchange rates (small size and the extent of trade links). Intervention and exchange market pressure also vary with the structure of the international monetary system.

Restraining Yourself: The Implications of Fiscal Rules for Economic Stabilization

State budgets played a significant macroeconomic role in the United States during the 1970s and 1980s. Their cyclical responsiveness was affected by the severity of statutory and constitutional fiscal restraints. Moving from no fiscal restraints to stringent restraints lowered the fiscal offset to income fluctuations by roughly 40 percent. Simulations indicate that a reduction in aggregate fiscal stabilizers of this size could lead to a significant increase in the variance of aggregate output.

The Morning after: Explaining the Slowdown in Japanese Growth in the 1990s

This paper uses a VAR to investigate four possible explanations of the extended slump in Japanese economic activity over the 1990s: the absence of bold and consistent fiscal stimulus; the limited room for expansionary monetary policy due to a liquidity trap; overinvestment and debt overhang; and disruption of financial intermediation. The results indicate that all of these factors played a role, but that the major explanation is disruption in financial intermediation, largely operating through the impact of changes in domestic asset prices on bank lending.