Christian Temperli

Cross-scale interactions among bark beetles, climate change, and wind disturbances: a landscape modeling approach

Bark beetles are a key forest disturbance agent worldwide, with their impact shaped by climate, forest susceptibility, and interactions with other disturbances such as windthrow and fire. There is ample evidence of the interactions among these factors at small spatial and temporal scales, but projecting their long-term and landscape-scale impacts remains a challenge. We developed a spatially explicit model of European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus) dynamics that incorporates beetle phenology and forest susceptibility and integrated it in a climate-sensitive landscape model (LandClim). We first corroborated model outputs at various spatial and temporal scales and then applied the model in three case studies (in the Black Forest, Germany, and Davos, Switzerland) that cover an extended climatic gradient. We used this model and case study framework to examine the mechanisms and feedbacks that are driving short-term and long-term interactions among beetle disturbance, climate change, and windthrow, and h...

Adaptive management for competing forest goods and services under climate change

Developing adaptive forest management strategies is essential to maintain the provisioning of forest goods and services (FGS) under future climate change. We assessed how climate change and forest management affect forest development and FGS for a diverse case-study landscape in Central Europe. Using a process-based forest model (LandClim) we simulated forest dynamics and FGS under a range of climate change and management scenarios in the Black Forest, Germany, which is shaped by various management practices. We focused on the interdependencies between timber production and forest diversity, the most valued FGS in this region. We found that the conversion to more drought-adapted forest types is required to prevent climate change-induced forest dieback and that this conversion must be the target of any adaptive management, especially in areas where monocultures of drought-sensitive Norway spruce (Picea abies) were promoted in the past. Forest conversion takes up to 120 years, however, with past and future adaptive management being the key drivers of timber and forest diversity provision. The conversion of drought-sensitive conifer monocultures maintains timber production in the short-term and enhances a range of forest diversity indices. Using uneven-aged forest management that targets a drought-adapted, diverse, and resilient species mixture, high species diversity can be combined with timber production in the long term. Yet, the promotion of mature-stand attributes requires management restrictions. Selecting future adaptive management options thus implies the consideration of trade-offs between forest resource use and environmental objectives, but also the exploitation of synergies between FGS that occur during forest conversion. Lastly, the large impact of past management practices on the spatial heterogeneity of forest dynamics underpins the need to assess FGS provisioning at the landscape scale.

Interactions among spruce beetle disturbance, climate change and forest dynamics captured by a forest landscape model

The risk of bark beetle outbreaks is widely predicted to increase because of a warming climate that accelerates temperature-driven beetle population growth and drought stress that impairs host tree defenses. However, few if any studies have explicitly evaluated climatically enhanced beetle population dynamics in relation to climate-driven changes in forest composition and structure that may alter forest suitability for beetle infestation. We synthesized current understanding of the interactions among climate, spruce beetles (Dendroctonus rufipennis) and forest dynamics to parameterize and further advance the bark beetle module of a dynamic forest landscape model (LandClim) that also integrates fire and wind disturbance and climate-driven forest succession. We applied the model to a subalpine watershed in northwestern Colorado to examine the mechanisms and feedbacks that may lead to shifts in forest composition and spruce beetle disturbance under three climate change scenarios. Simulation results suggest increased drought- and beetle-induced reduction of large Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) trees while Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) increased in dominance throughout the study area under all climate change scenarios. This shift in forest composition and structure counterbalances the enhancing effects of accelerated beetle population development and increased drought-induced susceptibility of spruce to beetles. As a result, we projected a long-term decrease in beetle-induced spruce mortality to below historical values under all climate scenarios at low elevations (<2800 m asl). Beetle-induced spruce mortality above 2800 m asl and under moderate climate change was slightly higher and more variable than under historical conditions but decreased to 36% and 6% of historical values under intermediate and extreme climate change, respectively. Because mechanisms driving beetle disturbance dynamics are similar across different bark beetle species, we argue that the depletion of host trees due to drought and beetle disturbance may also be important in other climate-sensitive beetle-host systems. We advocate for the consideration of climate-driven shifts in forest and disturbance dynamics in devising adaptive management strategies.

Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?

Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.

Institutional factors and opportunities for adapting European forest management to climate change

Abstract Despite the fact that the institutional environment is acknowledged to influence the implementation of regional adaptations of forest management to climate change, there are few empirical studies addressing the institutional factors and opportunities of adaptation. Using Ostrom’s institutional analysis and development framework, we aimed to identify : (1) the critical and distinctive characteristics of the forest resource and institutional context that may determine how climate change-adaptive forest management measures are implemented and (2) the opportunities for implementing the planned adaptation measures. The analysis is performed on ten European case study regions which differed in many resource-dependent factors, policy arena factors and incentives for changes. The main factors influencing the adaptation are the ownership pattern, the level of policy formation and the nature of forest goods and services. Opportunities for adaptation are driven by the openness of the forest management planning processes to the stakeholders participation, the degree to which business as usual management is projected to be non-satisfactory in the future, and by the number and nature of obstacles to adaptation. Promoting local self-governance mechanisms and the participation of the external stakeholders in forest management planning or in the regional forest or climate change policy adaptation may be a way of overcoming path dependency, behavioural obstacles and potential policy failures in implementing adaptation. The study argues that both climate change belief systems and political participation are important to explain adaptation to climate change when multiple decision-making levels are at stake.

Age-class disequilibrium as an opportunity for adaptive forest management in the Carpathian Mountains, Romania

Biomass and species composition of a forest district in the North-Eastern Carpathian Mountains were simulated until 2100 using the forest landscape model LandClim, driven by climate data from three general circulation models that projected the local climate change under the A1B emission scenario. Four different management scenarios were used: business as usual and three adaptive management scenarios characterized by an intensification of interventions: more intense thinnings and shorter rotations. The total biomass at the end of the simulation differed greatly according to the climate scenario but was comparatively much less influenced by the management scenarios. Forest biomass was projected to increase markedly under the model which forecast the lowest climate change (CCSM3), remained approximately constant in the intermediate climate model (ECHAM5) but decreased severely in the hypothesis of the largest climate changes (HadCM3). Our results showed that developments in species composition differed much more between climate change scenarios than between management scenarios. Under moderate and intermediate climate scenarios, changes in species composition occurred principally in harvested stands, while stands not harvested did not display species replacements. Under extreme climate change (HadCM3) on the other hand, the species change occurred even before harvest. The model projections highlight the inadequacy of some species for the new growing and regeneration conditions that accompany the extreme climate scenario. Harvesting can be seen as a chance to undergo active adaptation with respect to species composition.

A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future bioclimatic and socioeconomic conditions, and the ways decisions are evaluated and made. We investigate the adaptive management process and develop a framework including these three aspects, thus providing a structured way to analyze the challenges and opportunities of managing forests in the face of climate change. We apply the framework for a range of case studies that differ in the way climate and its impacts are projected to change, the available management options, and how decision makers develop, update, and use their beliefs about climate change scenarios to select among adaptation options, each being optimal for a certain climate change scenario. We describe four stylized types of decision-making processes that differ in how they (1) take into account uncertainty and new information on the state and development of the climate and (2) evaluate alternative management decisions: the “no-change,” the “reactive,” the “trend-adaptive,” and the “forward-looking adaptive” decision-making types. Accordingly, we evaluate the experiences with alternative management strategies and recent publications on using Bayesian optimization methods that account for different simulated learning schemes based on varying knowledge, belief, and information. Finally, our proposed framework for identifying adaptation strategies provides solutions for enhancing forest structure and diversity, biomass and timber production, and reducing climate change-induced damages. They are spatially heterogeneous, reflecting the diversity in growing conditions and socioeconomic settings within Europe.