Christian Weimar

RISK FACTORS FOR ISCHAEMIC AND INTRACEREBRAL HAEMORRHAGIC STROKE IN 22 COUNTRIES (THE INTERSTROKE STUDY): A CASE-CONTROL STUDY

BACKGROUND The contribution of various risk factors to the burden of stroke worldwide is unknown, particularly in countries of low and middle income. We aimed to establish the association of known and emerging risk factors with stroke and its primary subtypes, assess the contribution of these risk factors to the burden of stroke, and explore the differences between risk factors for stroke and myocardial infarction. METHODS We undertook a standardised case-control study in 22 countries worldwide between March 1, 2007, and April 23, 2010. Cases were patients with acute first stroke (within 5 days of symptoms onset and 72 h of hospital admission). Controls had no history of stroke, and were matched with cases for age and sex. All participants completed a structured questionnaire and a physical examination, and most provided blood and urine samples. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) and population-attributable risks (PARs) for the association of all stroke, ischaemic stroke, and intracerebral haemorrhagic stroke with selected risk factors. FINDINGS In the first 3000 cases (n=2337, 78%, with ischaemic stroke; n=663, 22%, with intracerebral haemorrhagic stroke) and 3000 controls, significant risk factors for all stroke were: history of hypertension (OR 2.64, 99% CI 2.26-3.08; PAR 34.6%, 99% CI 30.4-39.1); current smoking (2.09, 1.75-2.51; 18.9%, 15.3-23.1); waist-to-hip ratio (1.65, 1.36-1.99 for highest vs lowest tertile; 26.5%, 18.8-36.0); diet risk score (1.35, 1.11-1.64 for highest vs lowest tertile; 18.8%, 11.2-29.7); regular physical activity (0.69, 0.53-0.90; 28.5%, 14.5-48.5); diabetes mellitus (1.36, 1.10-1.68; 5.0%, 2.6-9.5); alcohol intake (1.51, 1.18-1.92 for more than 30 drinks per month or binge drinking; 3.8%, 0.9-14.4); psychosocial stress (1.30, 1.06-1.60; 4.6%, 2.1-9.6) and depression (1.35, 1.10-1.66; 5.2%, 2.7-9.8); cardiac causes (2.38, 1.77-3.20; 6.7%, 4.8-9.1); and ratio of apolipoproteins B to A1 (1.89, 1.49-2.40 for highest vs lowest tertile; 24.9%, 15.7-37.1). Collectively, these risk factors accounted for 88.1% (99% CI 82.3-92.2) of the PAR for all stroke. When an alternate definition of hypertension was used (history of hypertension or blood pressure >160/90 mm Hg), the combined PAR was 90.3% (85.3-93.7) for all stroke. These risk factors were all significant for ischaemic stroke, whereas hypertension, smoking, waist-to-hip ratio, diet, and alcohol intake were significant risk factors for intracerebral haemorrhagic stroke. INTERPRETATION Our findings suggest that ten risk factors are associated with 90% of the risk of stroke. Targeted interventions that reduce blood pressure and smoking, and promote physical activity and a healthy diet, could substantially reduce the burden of stroke. FUNDING Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, Canadian Stroke Network, Pfizer Cardiovascular Award, Merck, AstraZeneca, and Boehringer Ingelheim.

Recombinant Human Erythropoietin in the Treatment of Acute Ischemic Stroke

Background and Purpose— Numerous preclinical findings and a clinical pilot study suggest that recombinant human erythropoietin (EPO) provides neuroprotection that may be beneficial for the treatment of patients with ischemic stroke. Although EPO has been considered to be a safe and well-tolerated drug over 2 decades, recent studies have identified increased thromboembolic complications and/or mortality risks on EPO administration to patients with cancer or chronic kidney disease. Accordingly, the double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized German Multicenter EPO Stroke Trial (Phase II/III; ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00604630) was designed to evaluate efficacy and safety of EPO in stroke. Methods— This clinical trial enrolled 522 patients with acute ischemic stroke in the middle cerebral artery territory (intent-to-treat population) with 460 patients treated as planned (per-protocol population). Within 6 hours of symptom onset, at 24 and 48 hours, EPO was infused intravenously (40 000 IU each). Systemic thrombolysis with recombinant tissue plasminogen activator was allowed and stratified for. Results— Unexpectedly, a very high number of patients received recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (63.4%). On analysis of total intent-to-treat and per-protocol populations, neither primary outcome Barthel Index on Day 90 (P=0.45) nor any of the other outcome parameters showed favorable effects of EPO. There was an overall death rate of 16.4% (n=42 of 256) in the EPO and 9.0% (n=24 of 266) in the placebo group (OR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.16 to 3.38; P=0.01) without any particular mechanism of death unexpected after stroke. Conclusions— Based on analysis of total intent-to-treat and per-protocol populations only, this is a negative trial that also raises safety concerns, particularly in patients receiving systemic thrombolysis.

Treatment and outcomes of acute basilar artery occlusion in the Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS): a prospective registry study.

BACKGROUND Treatment strategies for acute basilar artery occlusion (BAO) are based on case series and data that have been extrapolated from stroke intervention trials in other cerebrovascular territories, and information on the efficacy of different treatments in unselected patients with BAO is scarce. We therefore assessed outcomes and differences in treatment response after BAO. METHODS The Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS) is a prospective, observational registry of consecutive patients who presented with an acute symptomatic and radiologically confirmed BAO between November 1, 2002, and October 1, 2007. Stroke severity at time of treatment was dichotomised as severe (coma, locked-in state, or tetraplegia) or mild to moderate (any deficit that was less than severe). Outcome was assessed at 1 month. Poor outcome was defined as a modified Rankin scale score of 4 or 5, or death. Patients were divided into three groups according to the treatment they received: antithrombotic treatment only (AT), which comprised antiplatelet drugs or systemic anticoagulation; primary intravenous thrombolysis (IVT), including subsequent intra-arterial thrombolysis; or intra-arterial therapy (IAT), which comprised thrombolysis, mechanical thrombectomy, stenting, or a combination of these approaches. Risk ratios (RR) for treatment effects were adjusted for age, the severity of neurological deficits at the time of treatment, time to treatment, prodromal minor stroke, location of the occlusion, and diabetes. FINDINGS 619 patients were entered in the registry. 27 patients were excluded from the analyses because they did not receive AT, IVT, or IAT, and all had a poor outcome. Of the 592 patients who were analysed, 183 were treated with only AT, 121 with IVT, and 288 with IAT. Overall, 402 (68%) of the analysed patients had a poor outcome. No statistically significant superiority was found for any treatment strategy. Compared with outcome after AT, patients with a mild-to-moderate deficit (n=245) had about the same risk of poor outcome after IVT (adjusted RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.60-1.45) or after IAT (adjusted RR 1.29, 0.97-1.72) but had a worse outcome after IAT compared with IVT (adjusted RR 1.49, 1.00-2.23). Compared with AT, patients with a severe deficit (n=347) had a lower risk of poor outcome after IVT (adjusted RR 0.88, 0.76-1.01) or IAT (adjusted RR 0.94, 0.86-1.02), whereas outcomes were similar after treatment with IAT or IVT (adjusted RR 1.06, 0.91-1.22). INTERPRETATION Most patients in the BASICS registry received IAT. Our results do not support unequivocal superiority of IAT over IVT, and the efficacy of IAT versus IVT in patients with an acute BAO needs to be assessed in a randomised controlled trial. FUNDING Department of Neurology, University Medical Center Utrecht.

Predicting functional outcome and survival after acute ischemic stroke

Abstract.Objective: Disability and mortality represent the most relevant clinical outcome after acute ischemic stroke. However, validated and comprehensive prognostic models for recovery have not been developed. An accurate model including all previously suggested independent outcome predictors could improve the design and analysis of clinical trials. We therefore developed prognostic models for functional dependence and death after 100 days in a large cohort of stroke patients. Methods: From the German Stroke Database, 1754 prospectively collected records of patients with acute ischemic stroke were used for the development of prognostic models. Intubated patients and patients with low functional status before stroke were excluded. Functional independence was defined as a Barthel Index ≥95 after 100 days. Prognostic factors assessable within 72 hours after admission were identified by a systematic literature review. The final models of binary logistic regression analyses were internally validated and calibrated. Results: The resulting cross-validated and calibrated models correctly classified more than 80 % of the patients and yielded the following prognostic factors for functional independence: Age, right and left arm paresis at admission, NIH-Stroke Scale at admission, Rankin Scale 48–72 hours later, gender, prior stroke, diabetes, fever, lenticulostriate infarction, neurological complications. The following variables were identified as prognostic factors for death: Age, NIH-Stroke Scale at admission, and fever. Conclusions: Our work gives an important insight into prognostic factors after acute ischemic stroke and presents predictive models with high prognostic accuracy. Together with a prospective validation study, currently underway, we hence hope to improve the prediction of functional outcome after ischemic stroke.

Global and regional effects of potentially modifiable risk factors associated with acute stroke in 32 countries (INTERSTROKE): a case-control study

BACKGROUND Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. We sought to quantify the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for stroke in different regions of the world, and in key populations and primary pathological subtypes of stroke. METHODS We completed a standardised international case-control study in 32 countries in Asia, America, Europe, Australia, the Middle East, and Africa. Cases were patients with acute first stroke (within 5 days of symptom onset and 72 h of hospital admission). Controls were hospital-based or community-based individuals with no history of stroke, and were matched with cases, recruited in a 1:1 ratio, for age and sex. All participants completed a clinical assessment and were requested to provide blood and urine samples. Odds ratios (OR) and their population attributable risks (PARs) were calculated, with 99% confidence intervals. FINDINGS Between Jan 11, 2007, and Aug 8, 2015, 26 919 participants were recruited from 32 countries (13 447 cases [10 388 with ischaemic stroke and 3059 intracerebral haemorrhage] and 13 472 controls). Previous history of hypertension or blood pressure of 140/90 mm Hg or higher (OR 2·98, 99% CI 2·72-3·28; PAR 47·9%, 99% CI 45·1-50·6), regular physical activity (0·60, 0·52-0·70; 35·8%, 27·7-44·7), apolipoprotein (Apo)B/ApoA1 ratio (1·84, 1·65-2·06 for highest vs lowest tertile; 26·8%, 22·2-31·9 for top two tertiles vs lowest tertile), diet (0·60, 0·53-0·67 for highest vs lowest tertile of modified Alternative Healthy Eating Index [mAHEI]; 23·2%, 18·2-28·9 for lowest two tertiles vs highest tertile of mAHEI), waist-to-hip ratio (1·44, 1·27-1·64 for highest vs lowest tertile; 18·6%, 13·3-25·3 for top two tertiles vs lowest), psychosocial factors (2·20, 1·78-2·72; 17·4%, 13·1-22·6), current smoking (1·67, 1·49-1·87; 12·4%, 10·2-14·9), cardiac causes (3·17, 2·68-3·75; 9·1%, 8·0-10·2), alcohol consumption (2·09, 1·64-2·67 for high or heavy episodic intake vs never or former drinker; 5·8%, 3·4-9·7 for current alcohol drinker vs never or former drinker), and diabetes mellitus (1·16, 1·05-1·30; 3·9%, 1·9-7·6) were associated with all stroke. Collectively, these risk factors accounted for 90·7% of the PAR for all stroke worldwide (91·5% for ischaemic stroke, 87·1% for intracerebral haemorrhage), and were consistent across regions (ranging from 82·7% in Africa to 97·4% in southeast Asia), sex (90·6% in men and in women), and age groups (92·2% in patients aged ≤55 years, 90·0% in patients aged >55 years). We observed regional variations in the importance of individual risk factors, which were related to variations in the magnitude of ORs (rather than direction, which we observed for diet) and differences in prevalence of risk factors among regions. Hypertension was more associated with intracerebral haemorrhage than with ischaemic stroke, whereas current smoking, diabetes, apolipoproteins, and cardiac causes were more associated with ischaemic stroke (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION Ten potentially modifiable risk factors are collectively associated with about 90% of the PAR of stroke in each major region of the world, among ethnic groups, in men and women, and in all ages. However, we found important regional variations in the relative importance of most individual risk factors for stroke, which could contribute to worldwide variations in frequency and case-mix of stroke. Our findings support developing both global and region-specific programmes to prevent stroke. FUNDING Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, Canadian Stroke Network, Health Research Board Ireland, Swedish Research Council, Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation, The Health & Medical Care Committee of the Regional Executive Board, Region Västra Götaland (Sweden), AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim (Canada), Pfizer (Canada), MSD, Chest, Heart and Stroke Scotland, and The Stroke Association, with support from The UK Stroke Research Network.

Predicting Long-Term Outcome After Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Simple Index Works in Patients From Controlled Clinical Trials

Background and Purpose— An early and reliable prognosis for recovery in stroke patients is important for initiation of individual treatment and for informing patients and relatives. We recently developed and validated models for predicting survival and functional independence within 3 months after acute stroke, based on age and the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score assessed within 6 hours after stroke. Herein we demonstrate the applicability of our models in an independent sample of patients from controlled clinical trials. Methods— The prognostic models were used to predict survival and functional recovery in 5419 patients from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA). Furthermore, we tried to improve the accuracy by adapting intercepts and estimating new model parameters. Results— The original models were able to correctly classify 70.4% (survival) and 72.9% (functional recovery) of patients. Because the prediction was slightly pessimistic for patients in the controlled trials, adapting the intercept improved the accuracy to 74.8% (survival) and 74.0% (functional recovery). Novel estimation of parameters, however, yielded no relevant further improvement. Conclusions— For acute ischemic stroke patients included in controlled trials, our easy-to-apply prognostic models based on age and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score correctly predicted survival and functional recovery after 3 months. Furthermore, a simple adaptation helps to adjust for a different prognosis and is recommended if a large data set is available.

Patent Foramen Ovale Closure or Anticoagulation vs. Antiplatelets after Stroke

BACKGROUND Trials of patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure to prevent recurrent stroke have been inconclusive. We investigated whether patients with cryptogenic stroke and echocardiographic features representing risk of stroke would benefit from PFO closure or anticoagulation, as compared with antiplatelet therapy. METHODS In a multicenter, randomized, open‐label trial, we assigned, in a 1:1:1 ratio, patients 16 to 60 years of age who had had a recent stroke attributed to PFO, with an associated atrial septal aneurysm or large interatrial shunt, to transcatheter PFO closure plus long‐term antiplatelet therapy (PFO closure group), antiplatelet therapy alone (antiplatelet‐only group), or oral anticoagulation (anticoagulation group) (randomization group 1). Patients with contraindications to anticoagulants or to PFO closure were randomly assigned to the alternative noncontraindicated treatment or to antiplatelet therapy (randomization groups 2 and 3). The primary outcome was occurrence of stroke. The comparison of PFO closure plus antiplatelet therapy with antiplatelet therapy alone was performed with combined data from randomization groups 1 and 2, and the comparison of oral anticoagulation with antiplatelet therapy alone was performed with combined data from randomization groups 1 and 3. RESULTS A total of 663 patients underwent randomization and were followed for a mean (±SD) of 5.3±2.0 years. In the analysis of randomization groups 1 and 2, no stroke occurred among the 238 patients in the PFO closure group, whereas stroke occurred in 14 of the 235 patients in the antiplatelet‐only group (hazard ratio, 0.03; 95% confidence interval, 0 to 0.26; P<0.001). Procedural complications from PFO closure occurred in 14 patients (5.9%). The rate of atrial fibrillation was higher in the PFO closure group than in the antiplatelet‐only group (4.6% vs. 0.9%, P=0.02). The number of serious adverse events did not differ significantly between the treatment groups (P=0.56). In the analysis of randomization groups 1 and 3, stroke occurred in 3 of 187 patients assigned to oral anticoagulants and in 7 of 174 patients assigned to antiplatelet therapy alone. CONCLUSIONS Among patients who had had a recent cryptogenic stroke attributed to PFO with an associated atrial septal aneurysm or large interatrial shunt, the rate of stroke recurrence was lower among those assigned to PFO closure combined with antiplatelet therapy than among those assigned to antiplatelet therapy alone. PFO closure was associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation. (Funded by the French Ministry of Health; CLOSE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00562289.)

An index to identify stroke-related vs incidental patent foramen ovale in cryptogenic stroke

Objective: We aimed to create an index to stratify cryptogenic stroke (CS) patients with patent foramen ovale (PFO) by their likelihood that the stroke was related to their PFO. Methods: Using data from 12 component studies, we used generalized linear mixed models to predict the presence of PFO among patients with CS, and derive a simple index to stratify patients with CS. We estimated the stratum-specific PFO-attributable fraction and stratum-specific stroke/TIA recurrence rates. Results: Variables associated with a PFO in CS patients included younger age, the presence of a cortical stroke on neuroimaging, and the absence of these factors: diabetes, hypertension, smoking, and prior stroke or TIA. The 10-point Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score is calculated from these variables so that the youngest patients with superficial strokes and without vascular risk factors have the highest score. PFO prevalence increased from 23% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 19%–26%) in those with 0 to 3 points to 73% (95% CI: 66%–79%) in those with 9 or 10 points, corresponding to attributable fraction estimates of approximately 0% to 90%. Kaplan-Meier estimated stroke/TIA 2-year recurrence rates decreased from 20% (95% CI: 12%–28%) in the lowest Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score stratum to 2% (95% CI: 0%–4%) in the highest. Conclusion: Clinical characteristics identify CS patients who vary markedly in PFO prevalence, reflecting clinically important variation in the probability that a discovered PFO is likely to be stroke-related vs incidental. Patients in strata more likely to have stroke-related PFOs have lower recurrence risk.

Assessment of Functioning and Disability After Ischemic Stroke

Background and Purpose— Functioning and disability after ischemic stroke are clinically meaningful and of major relevance to patients. Despite many instruments available to assess these outcomes, little is known about their interrelation and predictive factors. Methods— We prospectively identified 4264 patients with acute ischemic stroke from 30 hospitals in Germany during a 1-year period between 1998 and 1999 and registered them in a common data bank. The patients were centrally followed up via telephone interview after 100 days and 1 year to assess various scales such as the Barthel Index (BI), modified Rankin Scale (MRS), extended Barthel Index (EBI), Short Form-36 Physical Functioning (SF-36 PF), and Center for Epidemiologic Studies–Depression short form (CES-D). Results— Outcome status could be assessed in 67.2% of patients 100 days after hospital admission. Of these, 13.9% had died, 53.7% had regained functional independence (BI <95), 46.3% had no or mild residual symptoms (MRS ≤1), and 44.6% had no higher cognitive deficits on the EBI. Of the patients who personally answered the follow-up questions, 67% had no major physical disability (SF-36 PF <60), and 32.9% reported symptoms classified as depression (CES-D ≥10). The high percentage of patients reaching the maximum score (ceiling effect) in the BI was less pronounced in the MRS and SF-36 PF. The predictive factors for dichotomized outcomes on each scale were similar for adverse functioning and disability but varied considerably for depression. Conclusions— To avoid ceiling effects in outcome distribution of patients treated in specialized stroke centers, the MRS and SF-36 PF instruments are preferable to the BI. Parametric use of the SF-36 PF could further improve outcome measurement by considering individual treatment effects.

Complications following Acute Ischemic Stroke

The objective of this study was to assess typical early-onset complications following ischemic stroke in a large, hospital-based cohort to provide clinical data for future randomized trials and quality standards in clinical routine. 3,866 patients with acute ischemic stroke were prospectively documented in 14 Neurology Departments with an acute stroke unit. Within the first week after admission, increased intracranial pressure (7.6%) and recurrent cerebral ischemia (5.1%) were the most frequent neurological complications. Fever >38°C (13.2%), severe arterial hypertension (7.5%) and pneumonia (7.4%) were the most frequent medical complications. Multivariate regression analysis yielded brain stem infarction and large-artery atherosclerosis as independent predictors for early recurrent ischemic stroke. This study provides representative data on onset and severity of early neurological and medical complications as well as possible predictors for early recurrent cerebral ischemia following acute ischemic stroke.