Christopher C. Balch

SEC proton prediction model : verification and analysis

This paper describes a model that has been used at the NOAA Space Environment Center since the early 1970s as a guide for the prediction of solar energetic particle events. The algorithms for proton event probability, peak flux, and rise time are described. The predictions are compared with observations. The current model shows some ability to distinguish between proton event associated flares and flares that are not associated with proton events. The comparisons of predicted and observed peak flux show considerable scatter, with an rms error of almost an order of magnitude. Rise time comparisons also show scatter, with an rms error of approximately 28 h. The model algorithms are analyzed using historical data and improvements are suggested. Implementation of the algorithm modifications reduces the rms error in the log10 of the flux prediction by 21%, and the rise time rms error by 31%. Improvements are also realized in the probability prediction by deriving the conditional climatology for proton event occurrence given flare characteristics.

Magnetic Storms and Induction Hazards

Magnetic storms are potentially hazardous to the activities and technological infrastructure of modern civilization. This reality was dramatically demonstrated during the great magnetic storm of March 1989, when surface geoelectric fields, produced by the interaction of the time-varying geomagnetic field with the Earths electrically conducting interior, coupled onto the overlying Hydro-Quebec electric power grid in Canada. Protective relays were tripped, the grid collapsed, and about 9 million people were temporarily left without electricity [Bolduc, 2002].

Geomagnetically induced currents: science, engineering, and applications readiness

This paper is the primary deliverable of the very first NASA Living With a Star Institute Working Group, Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) Working Group. The paper provides a broad overview of the current status and future challenges pertaining to the science, engineering, and applications of the GIC problem. Science is understood here as the basic space and Earth sciences research that allows improved understanding and physics-based modeling of the physical processes behind GIC. Engineering, in turn, is understood here as the “impact” aspect of GIC. Applications are understood as the models, tools, and activities that can provide actionable information to entities such as power systems operators for mitigating the effects of GIC and government agencies for managing any potential consequences from GIC impact to critical infrastructure. Applications can be considered the ultimate goal of our GIC work. In assessing the status of the field, we quantify the readiness of various applications in the mitigation context. We use the Applications Readiness Level (ARL) concept to carry out the quantification.

Methodology for time-domain estimation of storm time geoelectric fields using the 3-D magnetotelluric response tensors

Geoelectric fields at the Earths surface caused by magnetic storms constitute a hazard to the operation of electric-power grids and related infrastructure. The ability to estimate these geoelectric fields in close to real time and provide local predictions would better equip the industry to mitigate negative impacts on their operations. Here, we report progress towards this goal: development of robust algorithms that convolve a magnetic storm time series with a frequency domain impedance for a realistic three-dimensional (3D) Earth, to estimate the local, storm-time geoelectric field. Both frequency domain and time domain approaches are presented, and validated against storm-time geoelectric field data measured in Japan. The methods are then compared in the context of a real-time application.

Community-wide validation of geospace model local K-index predictions to support model transition to operations

We present the latest result of a community-wide space weather model validation effort coordinated among the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), model developers, and the broader science community. Validation of geospace models is a critical activity for both building confidence in the science results produced by the models and in assessing the suitability of the models for transition to operations. Indeed, a primary motivation of this work is supporting NOAA/SWPCs effort to select a model or models to be transitioned into operations. Our validation efforts focus on the ability of the models to reproduce a regional index of geomagnetic disturbance, the local K-index. Our analysis includes six events representing a range of geomagnetic activity conditions and six geomagnetic observatories representing midlatitude and high-latitude locations. Contingency tables, skill scores, and distribution metrics are used for the quantitative analysis of model performance. We consider model performance on an event-by-event basis, aggregated over events, at specific station locations, and separated into high-latitude and midlatitude domains. A summary of results is presented in this report, and an online tool for detailed analysis is available at the CCMC.