Christopher E. Cattau

Extreme weather and experience influence reproduction in an endangered bird

Extreme weather events, such as droughts and heat waves, are expected to become more severe and more frequent in the coming years, and understanding their impacts on demographic rates is of increasing interest to both evolutionary ecologists and conservation practitioners. An individuals breeding probability can be a sensitive indicator of the decision to initiate reproductive behavior under varying environmental conditions, has strong fitness consequences, and can be considered the first step in a life history trade-off between allocating resources for breeding activities or self-survival. Using a 14-year time series spanning large variation in climatic conditions and the entirety of a populations breeding range, we estimated the effects of extreme weather conditions (drought) on the state-specific probabilities of breeding and survival of an endangered bird, the Florida Snail Kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus). Our analysis accounted for uncertainty in breeding status assignment, a common source of uncertainty that is often ignored when states are based on field observations. Breeding probabilities in adult kites (> 1 year of age) decreased during droughts, whereas the probability of breeding in young kites (1 year of age) tended to increase. Individuals attempting to breed showed no evidence of reduced future survival. Although population viability analyses of this species and other species often implicitly assume that all adults will attempt to breed, we find that breeding probabilities were significantly < 1 for all 13 estimable years considered. Our results suggest that experience is an important factor determining whether or not individuals attempt to breed during harsh environmental conditions and that reproductive effort may be constrained by an individuals quality and/or despotic behavior among individuals attempting to breed.

Consistent scaling of population structure across landscapes despite intraspecific variation in movement and connectivity

Understanding the spatial scale of population structure is fundamental to long-standing tenets of population biology, landscape ecology and conservation. Nonetheless, identifying such scales has been challenging because a key factor that influences scaling - movement among patches or local populations - is a multicausal process with substantial phenotypic and temporal variation. We resolve this problem via a novel application of network modularity. When applied to movements, modularity provides a formal description of the functional aggregation of populations and identifies potentially critical scales for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. We first test for modularity using several different types of biologically relevant movements across the entire geographic range of an endangered bird, the snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus). We then ask whether variation in movement based on (i) age, (ii) sex and (iii) time (annual, seasonal and within-season movements) influences spatial population structure (i.e. modularity) in snail kites. We identified significant modularity in annual dispersal of snail kites (all adults, males only, females only, and juveniles only) and in within-breeding season movements of adults, yet no evidence of modularity in seasonal (non-breeding) movements. For those movements with observed modular structure, we found striking similarities in the spatial configuration of population structure, even though movement properties varied considerably among these different types of movements. Our results suggest that the emergence of modularity in population networks can be robust despite movement heterogeneity and differences in patch-based measures of connectivity. Furthermore, our comparison of the population structure and connectivity across multiple movement phases helps to identify wetland patches most critical to population connectivity at multiple spatiotemporal scales. We argue that understanding modularity in populations may provide a robust complement to existing measures of population structure and connectivity and will help to clarify the limiting roles of movement for populations. Such information is increasingly needed for interpreting population persistence and guiding effective conservation strategies with ongoing environmental change.

Rapid morphological change of a top predator with the invasion of a novel prey

Invasive exotic species are spreading rapidly throughout the planet. These species can have widespread impacts on biodiversity, yet the ability for native species, particularly long-lived vertebrates, to respond rapidly to invasions remains mostly unknown. Here we provide evidence of rapid morphological change in the endangered snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis) across its North American range with the invasion of a novel prey, the island apple snail (Pomacea maculata), a much larger congener of the kite’s native prey. In less than one decade since invasion, snail kite bill size and body mass increased substantially. Larger bills should be better suited to extracting meat from the larger snail shells, and we detected strong selection on increased size through juvenile survival. Using pedigree data, we found evidence of both genetic and environmental influences on trait expression and discovered that additive genetic variation in bill size increased with invasion. However, trends in predicted breeding values emphasize that recent morphological changes have been driven primarily by phenotypic plasticity rather than micro-evolutionary change. Our findings suggest that evolutionary change may be imminent and underscore that even long-lived vertebrates can respond quickly to invasive species. Furthermore, these results highlight that phenotypic plasticity may provide a crucial role for predators experiencing rapid environmental change.The bill and body size of the snail kite have significantly increased in the decade since invasion of its range by apple snails that are larger than the native prey. Greater survival of larger juveniles suggests that evolutionary change may be imminent.

Isolating the roles of movement and reproduction on effective connectivity alters conservation priorities for an endangered bird

Significance Animal movement has captured the interest of biologists over the past century. Although animal movement is increasingly well understood, it is unclear how postmovement reproduction varies across landscapes despite its important role in many ecological and evolutionary processes. We address this problem by isolating the roles of movement and postmovement reproduction for connecting local populations using 9 years of data on an endangered bird across its entire geographic range. Our findings highlight the important role that postmovement reproduction can play for connecting animal populations across landscapes. Movement is important for ecological and evolutionary theory as well as connectivity conservation, which is increasingly critical for species responding to environmental change. Key ecological and evolutionary outcomes of movement, such as population growth and gene flow, require effective dispersal: movement that is followed by successful reproduction. However, the relative roles of movement and postmovement reproduction for effective dispersal and connectivity remain unclear. Here we isolate the contributions of movement and immigrant reproduction to effective dispersal and connectivity across the entire breeding range of an endangered raptor, the snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus). To do so, we unite mark–resight data on movement and reproduction across 9 years and 27 breeding patches with an integrated model that decomposes effective dispersal into its hierarchical levels of movement, postmovement breeding attempt, and postmovement reproductive success. We found that immigrant reproduction limits effective dispersal more than movement for this endangered species, demonstrating that even highly mobile species may have limited effective connectivity due to reduced immigrant reproduction. We found different environmental limitations for the reproductive component of effective dispersal compared with movement, indicating that different conservation strategies may be needed when promoting effective dispersal rather than movement alone. We also demonstrate that considering immigrant reproduction, rather than movement alone, alters which patches are the most essential for connectivity, thereby changing conservation priorities. These results challenge the assumption that understanding movement alone is sufficient to infer connectivity and highlight that connectivity conservation may require not only fostering movement but also successful reproduction of immigrants.