Robert J. Fletcher

Using species distribution models to identify suitable areas for biofuel feedstock production

The 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act mandates a five‐fold increase in US biofuel production by 2022. Given this ambitious policy target, there is a need for spatially explicit estimates of landscape suitability for growing biofuel feedstocks. We developed a suitability modeling approach for two major US biofuel crops, corn (Zea mays) and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), based upon the use of two presence‐only species distribution models (SDMs): maximum entropy (Maxent) and support vector machines (SVM). SDMs are commonly used for modeling animal and plant distributions in natural environments, but have rarely been used to develop landscape models for cultivated crops. AUC, Kappa, and correlation measures derived from test data indicate that SVM slightly outperformed Maxent in modeling US corn production, although both models produced significantly accurate results. When compared with results from a mechanistic switchgrass model recently developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), SVM results showed higher correlation than Maxent results with models fit using county‐scale point inputs of switchgrass production derived from expert opinion estimates. However, Maxent results for an alternative switchgrass model developed with point inputs from research trial sites showed higher correlation to the ORNL model than the corresponding results obtained from SVM. Further analysis indicates that both modeling approaches were effective in predicting county‐scale increases in corn production from 2006 to 2007, a time period in which US corn production increased by 24%. We conclude that presence‐only methods are a powerful first‐cut tool for estimating relative land suitability across geographic regions in which candidate biofuel feedstocks can be grown, and may also provide important insight into potential land‐use change patterns likely to be associated with increased biofuel demand.

Social-Information use in Heterogeneous Landscapes: A Prospectus

Abstract. The use of social information has recently been documented in a wide variety of animals, with potentially diverse consequences for those living in heterogeneous landscapes. Here we review and synthesize investigations on the use of social information in heterogeneous landscapes and provide a conceptual framework for interpreting the role social information plays for birds living in human-modified landscapes. Our framework emphasizes the spatial components of the availability and value of social information and how landscape change can alter the availability and perceived value of social information to individuals. As an example of the utility of an information-based perspective, we discuss investigations of habitat use by the Bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) in agricultural landscapes. Overall, work to date provides unique insight into the importance of social-information use at large scales but also underscores that much uncertainty remains regarding the role of social information in driving distributions and dynamics across landscapes.

Conspecific and Heterospecific Cues Override Resource Quality to Influence Offspring Production

Animals live in an uncertain world. To reduce uncertainty, animals use cues that can encode diverse information regarding habitat quality, including both non-social and social cues. While it is increasingly appreciated that the sources of potential information are vast, our understanding of how individuals integrate different types of cues to guide decision-making remains limited. We experimentally manipulated both resource quality (presence/absence of cactus fruit) and social cues (conspecific juveniles, heterospecific juveniles, no juveniles) for a cactus-feeding insect, Narnia femorata (Hemiptera: Coreidae), to ask how individuals responded to resource quality in the presence or absence of social cues. Cactus with fruit is a high-quality environment for juvenile development, and indeed we found that females laid 56% more eggs when cactus fruit was present versus when it was absent. However, when conspecific or heterospecific juveniles were present, the effects of resource quality on egg numbers vanished. Overall, N . femorata laid approximately twice as many eggs in the presence of heterospecifics than alone or in the presence of conspecifics. Our results suggest that the presence of both conspecific and heterospecific social cues can disrupt responses of individuals to environmental gradients in resource quality.

Spatio-Temporal Variation in Age Structure and Abundance of the Endangered Snail Kite: Pooling across Regions Masks a Declining and Aging Population

While variation in age structure over time and space has long been considered important for population dynamics and conservation, reliable estimates of such spatio-temporal variation in age structure have been elusive for wild vertebrate populations. This limitation has arisen because of problems of imperfect detection, the potential for temporary emigration impacting assessments of age structure, and limited information on age. However, identifying patterns in age structure is important for making reliable predictions of both short- and long-term dynamics of populations of conservation concern. Using a multistate superpopulation estimator, we estimated region-specific abundance and age structure (the proportion of individuals within each age class) of a highly endangered population of snail kites for two separate regions in Florida over 17 years (1997–2013). We find that in the southern region of the snail kite—a region known to be critical for the long-term persistence of the species—the population has declined significantly since 1997, and during this time, it has increasingly become dominated by older snail kites (> 12 years old). In contrast, in the northern region—a region historically thought to serve primarily as drought refugia—the population has increased significantly since 2007 and age structure is more evenly distributed among age classes. Given that snail kites show senescence at approximately 13 years of age, where individuals suffer higher mortality rates and lower breeding rates, these results reveal an alarming trend for the southern region. Our work illustrates the importance of accounting for spatial structure when assessing changes in abundance and age distribution and the need for monitoring of age structure in imperiled species.

Isolating the roles of movement and reproduction on effective connectivity alters conservation priorities for an endangered bird

Significance Animal movement has captured the interest of biologists over the past century. Although animal movement is increasingly well understood, it is unclear how postmovement reproduction varies across landscapes despite its important role in many ecological and evolutionary processes. We address this problem by isolating the roles of movement and postmovement reproduction for connecting local populations using 9 years of data on an endangered bird across its entire geographic range. Our findings highlight the important role that postmovement reproduction can play for connecting animal populations across landscapes. Movement is important for ecological and evolutionary theory as well as connectivity conservation, which is increasingly critical for species responding to environmental change. Key ecological and evolutionary outcomes of movement, such as population growth and gene flow, require effective dispersal: movement that is followed by successful reproduction. However, the relative roles of movement and postmovement reproduction for effective dispersal and connectivity remain unclear. Here we isolate the contributions of movement and immigrant reproduction to effective dispersal and connectivity across the entire breeding range of an endangered raptor, the snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus). To do so, we unite mark–resight data on movement and reproduction across 9 years and 27 breeding patches with an integrated model that decomposes effective dispersal into its hierarchical levels of movement, postmovement breeding attempt, and postmovement reproductive success. We found that immigrant reproduction limits effective dispersal more than movement for this endangered species, demonstrating that even highly mobile species may have limited effective connectivity due to reduced immigrant reproduction. We found different environmental limitations for the reproductive component of effective dispersal compared with movement, indicating that different conservation strategies may be needed when promoting effective dispersal rather than movement alone. We also demonstrate that considering immigrant reproduction, rather than movement alone, alters which patches are the most essential for connectivity, thereby changing conservation priorities. These results challenge the assumption that understanding movement alone is sufficient to infer connectivity and highlight that connectivity conservation may require not only fostering movement but also successful reproduction of immigrants.

Extending the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model to presence/absence data: A case study on North American breeding birds and biogeographical shifts expected from climate change

Abstract Understanding how species composition varies across space and time is fundamental to ecology. While multiple methods having been created to characterize this variation through the identification of groups of species that tend to co‐occur, most of these methods unfortunately are not able to represent gradual variation in species composition. The Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model is a mixed‐membership method that can represent gradual changes in community structure by delineating overlapping groups of species, but its use has been limited because it requires abundance data and requires users to a priori set the number of groups. We substantially extend LDA to accommodate widely available presence/absence data and to simultaneously determine the optimal number of groups. Using simulated data, we show that this model is able to accurately determine the true number of groups, estimate the underlying parameters, and fit with the data. We illustrate this method with data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). Overall, our model identified 18 main bird groups, revealing striking spatial patterns for each group, many of which were closely associated with temperature and precipitation gradients. Furthermore, by comparing the estimated proportion of each group for two time periods (1997–2002 and 2010–2015), our results indicate that nine (of 18) breeding bird groups exhibited an expansion northward and contraction southward of their ranges, revealing subtle but important community‐level biodiversity changes at a continental scale that are consistent with those expected under climate change. Our proposed method is likely to find multiple uses in ecology, being a valuable addition to the toolkit of ecologists.