Christopher R. Kelble

The EBM-DPSER Conceptual Model: Integrating Ecosystem Services into the DPSIR Framework

There is a pressing need to integrate biophysical and human dimensions science to better inform holistic ecosystem management supporting the transition from single species or single-sector management to multi-sector ecosystem-based management. Ecosystem-based management should focus upon ecosystem services, since they reflect societal goals, values, desires, and benefits. The inclusion of ecosystem services into holistic management strategies improves management by better capturing the diversity of positive and negative human-natural interactions and making explicit the benefits to society. To facilitate this inclusion, we propose a conceptual model that merges the broadly applied Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, and Response (DPSIR) conceptual model with ecosystem services yielding a Driver, Pressure, State, Ecosystem service, and Response (EBM-DPSER) conceptual model. The impact module in traditional DPSIR models focuses attention upon negative anthropomorphic impacts on the ecosystem; by replacing impacts with ecosystem services the EBM-DPSER model incorporates not only negative, but also positive changes in the ecosystem. Responses occur as a result of changes in ecosystem services and include inter alia management actions directed at proactively altering human population or individual behavior and infrastructure to meet societal goals. The EBM-DPSER conceptual model was applied to the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas marine ecosystem as a case study to illustrate how it can inform management decisions. This case study captures our system-level understanding and results in a more holistic representation of ecosystem and human society interactions, thus improving our ability to identify trade-offs. The EBM-DPSER model should be a useful operational tool for implementing EBM, in that it fully integrates our knowledge of all ecosystem components while focusing management attention upon those aspects of the ecosystem most important to human society and does so within a framework already familiar to resource managers.

On the Accuracy of SeaWiFS Ocean Color Data Products on the West Florida Shelf

ABSTRACT Cannizzaro, J.P.; Hu, C.; Carder, K.L.; Kelble, C.R.; Melo, N.; Johns, E.M.; Vargo, G.A., and Heil, C.A., 2013. On the accuracy of SeaWiFS ocean color data products on the West Florida Shelf. Despite the importance of the West Florida Shelf (WFS) on regional ecology and local economy, systematic shelf-wide assessment of the ocean biology has not been conducted, primarily because of budgetary limitations for routine field campaigns and unknown accuracy of satellite-based data products. Here, using shipboard spectral normalized water-leaving radiance (nLw[λ]) data and chlorophyll-a concentrations (Chl-a) collected regularly during two multiyear field programs spanning >10 years, the accuracies of Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) standard data products were evaluated. The in situ data covered a wide dynamic range, with about one order of magnitude in nLw(490) (0.47 to 4.01 mW cm−2 μm−1 sr−1) and two orders of magnitude in Chl-a (0.07 to 10.6 mg m−3). Near-concurrent in situ and satellite nLw(λ) data showed absolute percent differences (APD) increasing from 7–9% to 10–14% when data with elevated aerosol optical thicknesses at 865 nm (τa865) were included. Most of this uncertainty, however, canceled in the maximal blue-to-green reflectance band ratios traditionally used for estimating Chl-a. SeaWiFS OC4 Chl-a showed a root mean square (RMS) uncertainty of 0.106 for log-transformed data in waters offshore of the 20-m isobath that increased to 0.255 when all data were considered. The increased likelihood for nearshore SeaWiFS Chl-a greater than ∼0.5 mg m−3 to be overestimated was shown to be caused by a variety of factors (colored dissolved organic matter [CDOM], suspended sediments, and bottom reflectance) that varied in both time and space. In the future, more sophisticated algorithms capable of taking these factors into consideration are required to improve remote determinations of Chl-a in nearshore waters of the WFS.

An ecosystem‐based approach to marine risk assessment

Abstract Risk assessments quantify the probability of undesirable events along with their consequences. They are used to prioritize management interventions and assess tradeoffs, serving as an essential component of ecosystem‐based management (). A central objective of most risk assessments for conservation and management is to characterize uncertainty and impacts associated with one or more pressures of interest. Risk assessments have been used in marine resource management to help evaluate the risk of environmental, ecological, and anthropogenic pressures on species or habitats including for data‐poor fisheries management (e.g., toxicity, probability of extinction, habitat alteration impacts). Traditionally, marine risk assessments focused on singular pressure‐response relationships, but recent advancements have included use of risk assessments in an context, providing a method for evaluating the cumulative impacts of multiple pressures on multiple ecosystem components. Here, we describe a conceptual framework for ecosystem risk assessment (), highlighting its role in operationalizing , with specific attention to ocean management considerations. This framework builds on the ecotoxicological and conservation literature on risk assessment and includes recent advances that focus on risks posed by fishing to marine ecosystems. We review how examples of s from the United States fit into this framework, explore the variety of analytical approaches that have been used to conduct s, and assess the challenges and data gaps that remain. This review discusses future prospects for s as decision‐support tools, their expanded role in integrated ecosystem assessments, and the development of next‐generation risk assessments for coupled natural–human systems.

Advancing Marine Biological Observations and Data Requirements of the Complementary Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs) and Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) Frameworks

Measurements of the status and trends of key indicators for the ocean and marine life are required to inform policy and management in the context of growing human uses of marine resources, coastal development, and climate change. Two synergistic efforts identify specific priority variables for monitoring: Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs) through the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), and Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) from the Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON) (see Data Sheet 1 in Supplementary Materials for a glossary of acronyms). Both systems support reporting against internationally agreed conventions and treaties. GOOS, established under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), plays a leading role in coordinating global monitoring of the ocean and in the definition of EOVs. GEO BON is a global biodiversity observation network that coordinates observations to enhance management of the worlds biodiversity and promote both the awareness and accounting of ecosystem services. Convergence and agreement between these two efforts are required to streamline existing and new marine observation programs to advance scientific knowledge effectively and to support the sustainable use and management of ocean spaces and resources. In this context, the Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON), a thematic component of GEO BON, is collaborating with GOOS, the Ocean Biogeographic Information System (OBIS), and the Integrated Marine Biosphere Research (IMBeR) project to ensure that EBVs and EOVs are complementary, representing alternative uses of a common set of scientific measurements. This work is informed by the Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM), an intergovernmental body of technical experts that helps international coordination on best practices for observing, data management and services, combined with capacity development expertise. Characterizing biodiversity and understanding its drivers will require incorporation of observations from traditional and molecular taxonomy, animal tagging and tracking efforts, ocean biogeochemistry, and ocean observatory initiatives including the deep ocean and seafloor. The partnership between large-scale ocean observing and product distribution initiatives (MBON, OBIS, JCOMM, and GOOS) is an expedited, effective way to support international policy-level assessments (e.g., the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services or IPBES), along with the implementation of international development goals (e.g., the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals).

A conceptual model to assess stress‐associated health effects of multiple ecosystem services degraded by disaster events in the Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere

Abstract Few conceptual frameworks attempt to connect disaster‐associated environmental injuries to impacts on ecosystem services (the benefits humans derive from nature) and thence to both psychological and physiological human health effects. To our knowledge, this study is one of the first, if not the first, to develop a detailed conceptual model of how degraded ecosystem services affect cumulative stress impacts on the health of individual humans and communities. Our comprehensive Disaster‐Pressure State‐Ecosystem Services‐Response‐Health model demonstrates that oil spills, hurricanes, and other disasters can change key ecosystem components resulting in reductions in individual and multiple ecosystem services that support peoples livelihoods, health, and way of life. Further, the model elucidates how damage to ecosystem services produces acute, chronic, and cumulative stress in humans which increases risk of adverse psychological and physiological health outcomes. While developed and initially applied within the context of the Gulf of Mexico, it should work equally well in other geographies and for many disasters that cause impairment of ecosystem services. Use of this new tool will improve planning for responses to future disasters and help society more fully account for the costs and benefits of potential management responses. The model also can be used to help direct investments in improving response capabilities of the public health community, biomedical researchers, and environmental scientists. Finally, the model illustrates why the broad range of potential human health effects of disasters should receive equal attention to that accorded environmental damages in assessing restoration and recovery costs and time frames.

Low Salinity Predation Refugia Could Cause HAB Initiation

Most theories lay the root cause of coastal harmful algal blooms to either physical mechanisms or nutrient inputs (Sellner et al. 2003). These theories are too general to provide the necessary mechanistic understanding of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) from which effective management practices can be enacted. In this volume, Strom et al. (2012) put forth a theory regarding the physiology of Heterosigma akashiwo that is well supported by their laboratory studies and is remarkable in that a salinitymediated predation refuge is the exclusive causative factor initiating H. akashiwo blooms. H. akashiwo is among the most versatile and allelopathic HAB species, with documented adverse effects upon copepods (Yu et al. 2010), oyster larvae (Connell et al. 1997), adult oysters (Keppler et al. 2005), and scallops (Wang et al. 2006). It has caused significant kills of both caged and wild fish across the globe (Chang et al. 1990, Clement and Lembeye 1993, Tseng et al. 1993, Smayda 1998, Honjo 2004, Kempton et al. 2008). In the Salish Sea, H. akashiwo has caused fish kills of pan-reared salmon since 1976 and years with major blooms have a 4-fold lower marine survival rate of wild juvenile sockeye salmon, Oncorhynchus nerka (Horner et al. 1997, Rensel et al. 2010). It is known that H. akashiwo is tolerant of low salinities and widespread blooms of H. akashiwo occur during years with earlier and higher freshwater runoff to the Salish Sea (Rensel et al. 2010). These observations provide a starting point to investigate the mechanistic cause of these blooms. The paper by Strom et al. (this issue) puts forth a theory that the broad halotolerance of H. akashiwo provides a refuge from predation that allows for initiation of harmful raphidophyte blooms in low salinity surface waters of the Salish Sea. They tested this theory under rigorous laboratory experimentation and found that: (i) H. akashiwo survive better at lower salinities than many of their predators, (ii) in the presence of predators and a halocline,H. akashiwo displayed swimming behavior to accumulate in low-salinity, predator-free surface layers, and (iii) many predators of H. akashiwo showed decreased predation at low salinities. This provides a mechanistic theory of why H. akashiwo blooms are greater during years when the Fraser River has earlier and larger flows into the Salish Sea (Rensel et al. 2010). This freshwater flow causes stratification in the Salish Sea with low-salinity surface water providing a predation refuge forH. akashiwo. Years with earlier and larger freshwater flow would increase the likelihood of occurrence and areal extent of available predation refuge whenH. akashiwo germinate from cysts. These findings suggest that a predation refuge would be available to H. akashiwo in the low-salinity surface waters of estuaries when periods of freshwater runoff coincide with cyst germination. The role of top-down dynamics in phytoplankton blooms is less well understood in marine planktonic communities than bottom-up controls (Buskey 2008). This is especially true of HABs as evidenced by a review that did not consider the potential for top-down effects to cause or contribute to HABs (Sellner et al. 2003). In contrast, bottom-up controls and the impact of eutrophication on HABs has been the subject of significant research (Heisler et al. 2008). The experimentally supported hypothesis by Strom et al. (2012) suggests physical processes supply a predation refuge for HABs. This mechanism relies solely on release from predation to initiate the bloom and is thus independent from nutrient supply and resource-limitation hypotheses. The potential importance and lack of appreciation for the role grazer dynamics play in initiating, maintaining, and terminating HABs suggests that further research into top-down controls on HAB species is required. Strom et al. (2012) propose that river flow creates a salinity gradient that provides the predation refuge for H. akashiwo. Salinity has been suggested to provide a predation refuge for zooplankton from planktivorous fish (Putland and Iverson 2007, Kelble et al. 2010), but less is known about how salinity might provide phytoplankton a predation refuge from zooplankton. Climate change will result in higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater runoff that will affect estuarine salinity patterns (Scavia et al. 2002) altering the availability of these salinity-mediated predation refuges. Therefore, developing a comprehensive understanding of the role of salinity in J. Phycol. 49, 18–19 (2013)