Christopher Sprecher

Israeli Military Actions and Internalization-externalization Processes

As a manifestation of its self-reliance doctrine, the state of Israel has acted unilaterally in the military realm throughout its history. Several scholars have also linked Israeli actions to elections and the economy in the context of diversionary theory. Hypotheses derived from earlier empirical work on internalization-externalization linkages and additional causal hypotheses are tested to enhance diversionary theory. Vector autoregression (VAR) is used to relax causal assumptions and test basic relationships in the Israeli case from 1948 to 1998. Findings suggest that Israel responds militarily to Arab military actions and domestic political protests. However, Israeli actions also lead to more domestic protests. The potential for this reciprocal relationship is typically ignored in the current diversionary research program. Arab military actions appear to be driven by Israeli military actions and seem to decrease in response to Israeli actions.

Initial Crisis Reaction and Poliheuristic Theory

Poliheuristic (PH) theory models foreign policy decisions using a two-stage process. The first step eliminates alternatives on the basis of a simplifying heuristic. The second step involves a selection from amongthe remaining alternatives and can employ a more rational and compensatory means of processing information. The PH model posits that strategic/realist factors are more important in the second step of the process. The model is tested for the years 1918 to 1994, using crisis actors from the International Crisis Behavior data set. Results show that domestic political loss has a negative impact on the use of violence in response to a crisis trigger. Contiguity, joint democracy, and trigger are also significant in the expected directions. Relative capabilities have a positive impact, and enduring rivals do not appear more likely to use violence against each other as a first response in a crisis.

Alliances, Armed Conflict, and Cooperation: Theoretical Approaches and Empirical Evidence

Alliances are subject to many scholarly inquiries in international relations and peace research because they are major instruments of foreign and security policies. Since the early work on alliances produced by the Correlates of War (COW) project, there have been significant advances in conceptual, theoretical, and empirical alliance research. New typologies and data permit us to differentiate more thoroughly among a variety of alliance objectives and functions. Furthermore, there has been new theoretical and empirical research on alliance formation, alliance configuration/polarization, effects of alliances on military conflict, connections between alliances and trade, and the economics of alliances. Providing new theoretical approaches, data, and empirical evidence on alliances, this special issue includes articles that address alliance formation, alliance polarization, alliances and democratization, trade among allies, regional economic institutions with alliance obligations, and defense industrial policies of military alliances. The articles in this issue extend our understanding of alliances past the traditional realist balance-of-power framework and encourage further testing and refinement of older alliance arguments and extensions to new theoretical developments.

Alliance Formation and the Timing of War Involvement

The linkages between alliance formation and the occurrence of war are not well understood in the international relations literature. In particular, previous studies have failed to identify the underlying rationale for why certain alliances form. In this paper I examine the underlying grand strategy goals of states within alliances. Testing the theory on the population of alliances from 1816-1945, I find that offensively-oriented alliances are most likely to become involved in wars. Underlying issues such as dispute involvement, territory and capabilities play a large role in determining when an alliance member will become embroiled in conflict.

Causes and Consequences of Military Alliances: Concepts, Theory, Evidence

Amidst post-Cold War debates over the purpose and function of military alliances, there has been a growing body of conceptual, theoretical, and empirical scholarship offering interesting and important insights into (1) alliance formation and duration and (2) effects of alliances on armed conflict. Conceptually, alliances have been classified by alliance typologies (Gibler, 1997; Leeds, 2003) that go beyond the Small and Singer (1969) distinction between defense pacts, nonaggression/neutrality treaties, and ententes. Theoretically, it has been argued that alliances “work both to signal intentions and create commitments” (Morrow, 2000). Also, following earlier work by Schroeder (1976), it has been noted that alliances may not only offer assurances of security but also restrain allies in their resort to military action (Snyder, 1997). Empirically, the original formal alliance data of the Correlates of War project has been updated through 2000 (Gibler and Sarkees, 2004), data has been collected on alliances before 1816 (Gibler, 1999), and there has been development of the Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions (ATOP) dataset (Leeds, Ritter, Mitchell, and Long, 2002). The objective of this special issue is to present two ways in which new alliance research may enhance our understanding of causes and consequences of military alliances, considering their formation and duration, as well as their effects on military conflict. First, it suggests moving our attention from a traditional focus on material variables, like capabilities, to a new focus on cognitive variables, like state interests, when investigating alliance causes and consequences. Secondly, it distinguishes

Book Note: Conflict & Collusion in Sierra Leone

tual rigour, a wide-ranging understanding of the relevant academic literature and an impressive grasp of major contemporary peacebuilding cases. The book starts by reviewing the issues involved with peacebuilding and then examines the often overlooked question of design. Next, security, political transition, development and the broad question of reconciliation and social rehabilitation are presented, emphasizing their interrelationship and the overall need for social transformation if conflicts of the past are not to resurface. The book concludes with a discussion of operational imperatives and coordination, concerns that arise when diverse actors (NGOs, international organizations, great powers and national institutions), with at times differing agendas and priorities, try to work together ‘on the ground’ in post-conflict societies. Some readers might find the author’s treatment of reconciliation somewhat ambiguous in regard to the ‘pardon vs. punish’ debate, or might have preferred to see a more substantial conclusion pulling together many of the themes introduced. That said, the book would definitely be useful to students, scholars and professionals looking for a concise yet highly informative overview of this subject. Charles O. Lerche

Book Note: Postconflict Development: Meeting New Challenges

tual rigour, a wide-ranging understanding of the relevant academic literature and an impressive grasp of major contemporary peacebuilding cases. The book starts by reviewing the issues involved with peacebuilding and then examines the often overlooked question of design. Next, security, political transition, development and the broad question of reconciliation and social rehabilitation are presented, emphasizing their interrelationship and the overall need for social transformation if conflicts of the past are not to resurface. The book concludes with a discussion of operational imperatives and coordination, concerns that arise when diverse actors (NGOs, international organizations, great powers and national institutions), with at times differing agendas and priorities, try to work together ‘on the ground’ in post-conflict societies. Some readers might find the author’s treatment of reconciliation somewhat ambiguous in regard to the ‘pardon vs. punish’ debate, or might have preferred to see a more substantial conclusion pulling together many of the themes introduced. That said, the book would definitely be useful to students, scholars and professionals looking for a concise yet highly informative overview of this subject. Charles O. Lerche

Book Note: Reinventing Development? Translating Rights-Based Approaches from Theory into Practice:

historical memory in Iraq. As in most postcolonial Arab states, the question of cultural authenticity within a Pan-Arabist framework has dominated political discourse. However, Davis takes us through an analysis of the development of Takriti Ba’thism under Saddam Husayn and the politicizing of Iraq’s own national history as saviours of the Arab empire. Thus, Davis shows how Takriti Ba’thism placed Iraqi nationalism over Pan-Arabism. In the second half of the book, Davis discusses how ethnic minorities can be seen as threats when they do not conform, exemplified by the presence of prominent Shi‘is in government. According to Davis, they are recruited despite their group belonging and not as grouprepresentatives. This is a familiar pattern found in, for instance, Turkey (Kurds). Assimilated people are not necessarily viewed as threatening; however, the regime may continue to discriminate against the group in general, legitimized by perceived doubts about the group’s national allegiance. The book is ideal for researchers working with questions of stateand nation-building in Iraq, as well as with regional issues of minority groups and state. Naima Mouhleb

Book Note: The Waning of Major War: Theories and Debates

covered. The Southern Thai Muslim problem seems to be the only obvious ethnic conflict not included in the book. The writers are the ‘usual suspects’ in Southeast Asian conflict research: extremely prolific writers and regular advisers to their governments. The latter fact makes this book even more interesting, as their views are often later reflected in government policies. Politically, it is interesting to notice that the writers join Ted Robert Gurr and others in suggesting conciliatory approaches rather than military solutions to ethnic conflicts. Perhaps it is this prescription that would become too sensitive if Pattani in Southern Thailand had been covered. The book starts with two shaky contextual assumptions, one global and one regional. It talks about the new world disorder, while there are indicators that the world is moving in a peaceful direction. Regionally, the book reflects a typical, but potentially incorrect, assumption of the contribution of ethnic diversity to conflict potential; Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler find that ethnic bipolarity, rather than diversity, contributes to conflicts. However, these assumptions do not spoil the thorough analysis of the cases. The book is good reading and can be strongly recommended to all Southeast Asianists and conflict specialists. Timo Kivimäki

Book Note: Mediating International Crises

against conquest have fundamentally changed great-power politics. Patrick Morgan argues that multilateral institutions have played an important role in crisis management. Part IV includes a chapter by William Thompson on the democratic peace and one by Väyrynen on the role of capitalism. Lastly, Marie Henehan and John Vasquez investigate the quantitative data on conflict. Yet, it is odd that none of the authors seriously considers the bargaining and war literature in their theoretical constructs. Nonetheless, this book is a must-read for students of international war. Idean Salehyan