Cindy A. Thatcher

Economic Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise Along the Northern U.S. Gulf Coast

ABSTRACT Thatcher, C.A.; Brock J.C., and Pendleton, E.A., 2013. Economic Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise Along the Northern U.S. Gulf Coast. In: Brock, J.C.; Barras, J.A., and Williams, S.J. (eds.), Understanding and Predicting Change in the Coastal Ecosystems of the Northern Gulf of Mexico, Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 63, pp. 234–243, Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749–0208. The northern Gulf of Mexico coast of the United States has been identified as highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, based on a combination of physical and societal factors. Vulnerability of human populations and infrastructure to projected increases in sea level is a critical area of uncertainty for communities in the extremely low-lying and flat northern gulf coastal zone. A rapidly growing population along some parts of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline is further increasing the potential societal and economic impacts of projected sea-level rise in the region, where observed relative rise rates range from 0.75 to 9.95 mm per year on the Gulf coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. A 1-m elevation threshold was chosen as an inclusive designation of the coastal zone vulnerable to relative sea-level rise, because of uncertainty associated with sea-level rise projections. This study applies a Coastal Economic Vulnerability Index (CEVI) to the northern Gulf of Mexico region, which includes both physical and economic factors that contribute to societal risk of impacts from rising sea level. The economic variables incorporated in the CEVI include human population, urban land cover, economic value of key types of infrastructure, and residential and commercial building values. The variables are standardized and combined to produce a quantitative index value for each 1-km coastal segment, highlighting areas where human populations and the built environment are most at risk. This information can be used by coastal managers as they allocate limited resources for ecosystem restoration, beach nourishment, and coastal-protection infrastructure. The study indicates a large amount of variability in index values along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline, and highlights areas where long-term planning to enhance resiliency is particularly needed.

Accuracy assessment of a mobile terrestrial lidar survey at Padre Island National Seashore

The higher point density and mobility of terrestrial laser scanning (light detection and ranging (lidar)) is desired when extremely detailed elevation data are needed for mapping vertically orientated complex features such as levees, dunes, and cliffs, or when highly accurate data are needed for monitoring geomorphic changes. Mobile terrestrial lidar scanners have the capability for rapid data collection on a larger spatial scale compared with tripod-based terrestrial lidar, but few studies have examined the accuracy of this relatively new mapping technology. For this reason, we conducted a field test at Padre Island National Seashore of a mobile lidar scanner mounted on a sport utility vehicle and integrated with a position and orientation system. The purpose of the study was to assess the vertical and horizontal accuracy of data collected by the mobile terrestrial lidar system, which is georeferenced to the Universal Transverse Mercator coordinate system and the North American Vertical Datum of 1988. To accomplish the study objectives, independent elevation data were collected by conducting a high-accuracy global positioning system survey to establish the coordinates and elevations of 12 targets spaced throughout the 12 km transect. These independent ground control data were compared to the lidar scanner-derived elevations to quantify the accuracy of the mobile lidar system. The performance of the mobile lidar system was also tested at various vehicle speeds and scan density settings (e.g. field of view and linear point spacing) to estimate the optimal parameters for desired point density. After adjustment of the lever arm parameters, the final point cloud accuracy was 0.060 m (east), 0.095 m (north), and 0.053 m (height). The very high density of the resulting point cloud was sufficient to map fine-scale topographic features, such as the complex shape of the sand dunes.

Topobathymetric elevation model development using a new methodology: Coastal National Elevation Database

ABSTRACT Danielson, J.J.; Poppenga, S.K.; Brock, J.C.; Evans, G.A.; Tyler, D.J.; Gesch, D.B.; Thatcher, C.A., and Barras, J.A., 2016. Topobathymetric elevation model development using a new methodology: Coastal National Elevation Database. In: Brock, J.C.; Gesch, D.B.; Parrish, C.E.; Rogers, J.N., and Wright, C.W. (eds.), Advances in Topobathymetric Mapping, Models, and Applications. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue, No. 76, pp. 75–89. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. During the coming decades, coastlines will respond to widely predicted sea-level rise, storm surge, and coastal inundation flooding from disastrous events. Because physical processes in coastal environments are controlled by the geomorphology of over-the-land topography and underwater bathymetry, many applications of geospatial data in coastal environments require detailed knowledge of the near-shore topography and bathymetry. In this paper, an updated methodology used by the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal National Elevation Database (CoNED) Applications Project is presented for developing coastal topobathymetric elevation models (TBDEMs) from multiple topographic data sources with adjacent intertidal topobathymetric and offshore bathymetric sources to generate seamlessly integrated TBDEMs. This repeatable, updatable, and logically consistent methodology assimilates topographic data (land elevation) and bathymetry (water depth) into a seamless coastal elevation model. Within the overarching framework, vertical datum transformations are standardized in a workflow that interweaves spatially consistent interpolation (gridding) techniques with a land/water boundary mask delineation approach. Output gridded raster TBDEMs are stacked into a file storage system of mosaic datasets within an Esri ArcGIS geodatabase for efficient updating while maintaining current and updated spatially referenced metadata. Topobathymetric data provide a required seamless elevation product for several science application studies, such as shoreline delineation, coastal inundation mapping, sediment-transport, sea-level rise, storm surge models, and tsunami impact assessment. These detailed coastal elevation data are critical to depict regions prone to climate change impacts and are essential to planners and managers responsible for mitigating the associated risks and costs to both human communities and ecosystems. The CoNED methodology approach has been used to construct integrated TBDEM models in Mobile Bay, the northern Gulf of Mexico, San Francisco Bay, the Hurricane Sandy region, and southern California.

Geographic Profiling to Assess the Risk of Rare Plant Poaching in Natural Areas

We demonstrate the use of an expert-assisted spatial model to examine geographic factors influencing the poaching risk of a rare plant (American ginseng, Panax quinquefolius L.) in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Following principles of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), we identified a hierarchy of 11 geographic factors deemed important to poaching risk and requested law enforcement personnel of the National Park Service to rank those factors in a series of pair-wise comparisons. We used those comparisons to determine statistical weightings of each factor and combined them into a spatial model predicting poaching risk. We tested the model using 69 locations of previous poaching incidents recorded by law enforcement personnel. These locations occurred more frequently in areas predicted by the model to have a higher risk of poaching than random locations. The results of our study can be used to evaluate resource protection strategies and to target law enforcement activities.

Vulnerability and Impacts on Human Development

The societal vulnerability of U.S. coasts to climate change is multifaceted, including vulnerabilities of economic sectors, cultural resources, and human well-being of a diverse concentration of people. In addition to the vulnerability and potential impacts of a changing climate on natural resources and threats to ecosystem services described in Chapter 3, homes and other human development in the coastal zone are also increasingly at risk. This expanded vulnerability has three dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, and resilience or adaptive capacity. The interactions of climate-related vulnerabilities with other stresses, such as economic downturn, environmental degradation, loss of ecosystem services, and continued pressures for development pose further analytical challenges. Current research on societal vulnerability in the coastal area does not yet fully consider or capture these multifaceted attributes of societal vulnerability.

Creating a Coastal National Elevation Database (CoNED) for Science and Conservation Applications

ABSTRACT Thatcher, C.A.; Brock, J.C.; Danielson, J.J.; Poppenga, S.K.; Gesch, D.B.; Palaseanu-Lovejoy, M.E.; Barras, J.A.; Evans, G.A., and Gibbs, A.E., 2016. Creating a Coastal National Elevation Database (CoNED) for science and conservation applications. In: Brock, J.C.; Gesch, D.B.; Parrish, C.E.; Rogers, J.N., and Wright, C.W. (eds.), Advances in Topobathymetric Mapping, Models, and Applications. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue, No. 76, pp. 64–74. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. The U.S. Geological Survey is creating the Coastal National Elevation Database, an expanding set of topobathymetric elevation models that extend seamlessly across coastal regions of high societal or ecological significance in the United States that are undergoing rapid change or are threatened by inundation hazards. Topobathymetric elevation models are raster datasets useful for inundation prediction and other earth science applications, such as the development of sediment-transport and storm surge models. These topobathymetric elevation models are being constructed by the broad regional assimilation of numerous topographic and bathymetric datasets, and are intended to fulfill the pressing needs of decision makers establishing policies for hazard mitigation and emergency preparedness, coastal managers tasked with coastal planning compatible with predictions of inundation due to sea-level rise, and scientists investigating processes of coastal geomorphic change. A key priority of this coastal elevation mapping effort is to foster collaborative lidar acquisitions that meet the standards of the USGS National Geospatial Programs 3D Elevation Program, a nationwide initiative to systematically collect high-quality elevation data. The focus regions are located in highly dynamic environments, for example in areas subject to shoreline change, rapid wetland loss, hurricane impacts such as overwash and wave scouring, and/or human-induced changes to coastal topography.

Modeling and Simulation of Storm Surge on Staten Island to Understand Inundation Mitigation Strategies

ABSTRACT Kress, M.E.; Benimoff, A.I.; Fritz, W.J.; Thatcher, C.A.; Blanton, B.O., and Dzedzits, E., 2016. Modeling and simulation of storm surge on Staten Island to understand inundation mitigation strategies. In: Brock, J.C.; Gesch, D.B.; Parrish, C.E.; Rogers, J.N., and Wright, C.W. (eds.), Advances in Topobathymetric Mapping, Models, and Applications. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue, No. 76, pp. 149–161. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Hurricane Sandy made landfall on October 29, 2012, near Brigantine, New Jersey, and had a transformative impact on Staten Island and the New York Metropolitan area. Of the 43 New York City fatalities, 23 occurred on Staten Island. The borough, with a population of approximately 500,000, experienced some of the most devastating impacts of the storm. Since Hurricane Sandy, protective dunes have been constructed on the southeast shore of Staten Island. ADCIRC+SWAN model simulations run on The City University of New Yorks Cray XE6M, housed at the College of Staten Island, using updated topographic data show that the coast of Staten Island is still susceptible to tidal surge similar to those generated by Hurricane Sandy. Sandy hindcast simulations of storm surges focusing on Staten Island are in good agreement with observed storm tide measurements. Model results calculated from fine-scaled and coarse-scaled computational grids demonstrate that finer grids better resolve small differences in the topography of critical hydraulic control structures, which affect storm surge inundation levels. The storm surge simulations, based on post-storm topography obtained from high-resolution lidar, provide much-needed information to understand Staten Islands changing vulnerability to storm surge inundation. The results of fine-scale storm surge simulations can be used to inform efforts to improve resiliency to future storms. For example, protective barriers contain planned gaps in the dunes to provide for beach access that may inadvertently increase the vulnerability of the area.

Lidar-based mapping of flood control levees in South Louisiana

ABSTRACT Flood protection in south Louisiana is largely dependent on earthen levees, and in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina the state’s levee system has received intense scrutiny. Accurate elevation data along the levees are critical to local levee district managers responsible for monitoring and maintaining the extensive system of non-federal levees in coastal Louisiana. In 2012, high resolution airborne lidar data were acquired over levees in Lafourche Parish, Louisiana, and a mobile terrestrial lidar survey was conducted for selected levee segments using a terrestrial lidar scanner mounted on a truck. The mobile terrestrial lidar data were collected to test the feasibility of using this relatively new technology to map flood control levees and to compare the accuracy of the terrestrial and airborne lidar. Metrics assessing levee geometry derived from the two lidar surveys are also presented as an efficient, comprehensive method to quantify levee height and stability. The vertical root mean square error values of the terrestrial lidar and airborne lidar digital-derived digital terrain models were 0.038 m and 0.055 m, respectively. The comparison of levee metrics derived from the airborne and terrestrial lidar-based digital terrain models showed that both types of lidar yielded similar results, indicating that either or both surveying techniques could be used to monitor geomorphic change over time. Because airborne lidar is costly, many parts of the USA and other countries have never been mapped with airborne lidar, and repeat surveys are often not available for change detection studies. Terrestrial lidar provides a practical option for conducting repeat surveys of levees and other terrain features that cover a relatively small area, such as eroding cliffs or stream banks, and dunes.