Clive Hamilton

Determinants of emissions growth in OECD countries

Abstract This paper analyses the sources of growth in energy-related greenhouse gas emissions for OECD countries over the period 1982–1997. It employs a decomposition formula that separates out the effects of changes in population, economic growth, energy intensity of output (in aggregate and by sector), primary energy use in final energy consumption, the share of fossil fuels and the carbon intensity of fossil fuel combustion. It is shown that, in general, growth in emissions depends on how effectively energy use can be changed to offset the effects of economic growth. Across the OECD as a whole, growth in emissions has been mainly due to economic growth (both GDP per capita and population growth), as well as an increase in primary energy required for final energy consumption, offset by falling energy intensities and a declining share of fossil fuels. Overall, the large fall in the energy intensity of OECD economies over 1982–1997 has been driven primarily by falling energy intensities in the services and industry sectors of the USA and the services sector of the European Union, but these have been offset somewhat by rising energy intensity of services in Japan. The influence of falling energy intensities and the declining share of fossil fuels weakened in the five-year period 1992–1997 resulting in faster emissions growth. There were sharp difference between countries, with population growth and worsening fuel mix playing a much stronger role in the USA compared to the EU and Japan, but with the US making much larger reductions in energy use per unit of GDP. The analysis suggests that opportunities to reduce emissions are more limited in Germany, the UK and Japan, with more opportunities in the USA, Canada, the Netherlands and Australia.

The genuine progress indicator methodological developments and results from Australia

Abstract This paper is a contribution to the continuing development of the methods and results for the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare, also known as the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI). It attempts a more systematic approach to some of the components of the GPI. It includes a more careful specification of types of capital and more plausible methods of estimating the costs of depletion of non-renewable resources and environmental damage due to ozone depletion. In addition, the paper attempts a more comprehensive treatment of the value of time, including the costs of unemployment and overwork. Results of the GPI calculations for Australia over the period 1950–1996 are presented and analysed.

Dualism and sustainability

Abstract This paper argues that there are two forms of knowledge, intuitive and rational. Duality refers to the separation of the two and the trivialisation of intuitive knowledge, the form that has historically governed the inner relationship of humans to the natural world. The scientific-industrial revolution saw not only the banishment of intuitive knowledge but the elevation of a particular form of rationality, instrumental rationality, the form that provides the basis for modern economics. The transition from participating to non-participating consciousness heralded a new mode of self-awareness, an isolated ego existing ‘inside’ the body, and an acute psychological loss. The consciousness of non-participation meant that the natural world was now seen as essentially dead. It could therefore be exploited for the material benefit of humans. While recognising the value of reason, the well-spring of environmentalism is intuitive knowledge. Environmentalism seeks to transcend duality, reassert the cosmic unity and breathe life back into Nature.

The sustainability of logging in Indonesia's tropical forests: A dynamic input-output analysis

Abstract The extraordinarily high ecological values of Indonesias tropical forests are being threatened by excessive and careless logging. This paper reports the results of a dynamic input-output model used to make projections of the growth of demand for logs through to the year 2020 and of the likely impact of this growth on forest degradation measured by rates of soil erosion and deforestation. Policy variables built into the model scenarios include the rate of plantation establishment and the ‘technologies’ used to log natural forests. The results show that the critical variables determining the future of Indonesias forests will be the overall rate of growth of the economy and the rate of plantation establishment. However, even with a marked shift to plantations and adoption of much more sustainable practices for logging natural forests (both of which are in practice unlikely), degradation of Indonesias tropical forests will be severe.

A general equilibrium model of structural change and economic growth, with application to south Korea

Abstract This paper presents a computable general equilibrium model for South Korea. It is a dynamic input-output model solved by assuming equal sectoral growth rates. Its solution gives output and price relatives which measure the structural ‘distance’ of the economy from the ‘turnpike’. Comparisons of these model solutions with actual output proportions and relative prices provide insights into the South Korean industrialization process. However, the models strict assumptions limit its applicability and provide problems of interpretation, especially in open economies.

The Commonwealth and sea-level rise

According to the UNs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), some Commonwealth developing countries face severe threats from climate change and none more so than small island states and low-lying areas of larger countries. While industrialized countries are responsible for the greenhouse gas emissions that are transforming the worlds climate, the impacts of climate change will be most severe in poor countries.

Upping the ante in the climate debate

The climate change debate has descended into death threats and extreme insults in Australia. The science is being drowned out