Clive Payne

The GLIM System : Release 4 Manual

This manual describes how GLIM 4 may be used for statistical analysis in its most general sense, including data manipulation and display, model fitting, and prediction. This is a thorough re-working of the previous GLIM manual to take account of updates to the software - essential reading for all research statisticians everywhere.

Aggregate Data, Ecological Regression, and Voting Transitions

Abstract Voting data typically comprise the marginal distributions of votes cast at two successive elections. The fact that these obtain separately for many voting precincts or areas enables one to estimate the actual transition probabilities for movements between the options available to the voter at each election. An aggregated compound multinomial model is proposed. This allows log-linear dependence on various covariates and specifies a simple and illuminating structure of random effects. The information in such aggregated data is compared with that which would obtain had all of the transitions been observed. The model is applicable to many other types of aggregated data and meets many of the difficulties inherent in “ecological regression.” It is illustrated with an analysis of the British European election of 1984.

Trends in Intergenerational Class Mobility in England and Wales, 1972-1983:

Results on trends in intergenerational class mobility in England and Wales obtained from the Nuffield inquiry of 1972 are updated to 1983 on the basis of material derived from the British General Election Study of that year. Overall, a marked continuity in trends in absolute mobility rates and in associated patterns of social fluidity and structural change is revelaed. The most important new development in the context of far more adverse economic conditions is for the mobility chances of men of working-class origins to polarise - a continuing improvement in opportunities for upward mobility into service-class positions going together with increasing risks of downward mobility via unemployment. The results reported are shown to be ones that do not readily accord with current theories, whether Marxist or liberal, of the development of the class structures of modern western societies.

Modelling trends in the class/party relationship 1964–87

Abstract Discussions of the nature of changes in the class/party association have focused on the theses of ‘trendless fluctuation’ and gradual decline in the class basis of British politics. This paper advances this debate by demonstrating that log-linear modelling can be used to test for more complex patterns of change over the period in question. In an analysis of the class/party association over eight elections both the trendless fluctuation and the gradual change thesis are shown not to fit the data particularly well. Far better fits are obtained by modelling the effects of political rather than sociological influences. Thus incumbency is shown to have a considerable impact on the class basis of support for the parties. Labour Party incumbency is shown to have an especially large effect in reducing the working class basis of support for the party. The paper both elaborates upon the methodological advantages of log-linear modelling and argues for new approaches to understanding the class/party relationship.

Evaluation of methods for ecological inference

SUMMARY In ecological inference one uses data which are aggregated by areal units to investigate the behaviour of the individuals comprising those units. Aggregated data are readily available in many fields and within a wide variety of data structures. In the structures considered, the aggregate data are characterized by the absence of available data in the internal cells of a cross-classification. The aim of the ecological methods is to estimate the expected frequencies of such internal cells, which may be conditional on chosen covariates. Four methods of ecological inference are reviewed and their properties and appropriateness considered. These methods are then applied to data for which the internal cells are known and their performances compared.

Efficacy of programmes for the unemployed: discrete time modelling of duration data from a matched-comparison study

An evaluation is described of two UK Government programmes for the long-term unemployed in Great Britain, Employment Training and Employment Action, using discrete time hazard modelling of event histories. The study design employed a closely matched comparison group and carefully chosen control variables to minimize the effect of selection bias on conclusions. The effect of unobserved heterogeneity is investigated by using some standard random effect model formulations.

Forecasting on British election night 1997

An account is given of methods used to predict the outcome of the 1997 general election from early declared results, for use by the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) in its election night television and radio coverage. Particular features of the 1997 election include extensive changes to constituency boundaries, simultaneous local elections in many districts and strong tactical voting. A new technique is developed, designed to eliminate systematic sources of bias such as differential refusal, for incorporating prior information from the BBCs exit poll. The sequence of forecasts generated on election night is displayed, with commentary.

GLIM 3.77

A new release of the GLIM program, GLIM 3–77, is described. Modifications and extensions to the previous release are given.

Local elections as national referendums in Great Britain

Abstract The results of the annual round of local elections held in Great Britain on the first Thursday in May each year attract considerable interest amongst journalists and politicians. Local elections are increasingly fought on party political Lines and have come to be seen as a national referendum on the standing of the political parties. The results of the elections are not, however, easy to interpret. The authors describe the methodology they have been developing since 1981 to analyse local election results for the news media and they evaluate the lessons and utility of their work. The prospects for local election studies in Great Britain are considered.

Lessons of the 1982 English local elections

Abstract The 1982 local elections in Britain were the first elections fought on a nationwide basis by the Liberal/Social Democratic Party Alliance. Although there are methodological problems, the results in provincial England can be analysed to provide clues to the character of support for Britains newest political formation. Although the Alliance achieved a substantially higher vote than the Liberals had in 1980, it proved difficult to achieve a breakthrough in terms of wards won—especially for the SDP who tended to contest poorer prospects than their Liberal partners. There is only weak evidence that the SDP could mobilize new sources of support. The even spread of the Alliances vote was such as to cast doubt on their ability to win seats at the next general election unless a very high level of support is attained.