Courtland L. Smith

Policy Research Using Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Impacts of Urban Expansion into Farmlands and Forests

The expansion of urban land uses into farmlands and forests requires an assessment of future ecological impacts. Spatially explicit agent-based models can represent the changes in resilience and ecological services that result from different land-use policies. When modeling complex adaptive systems, both the methods used to interpret results and the standards of rigor used to judge adequacy are complicated and require additional research. Recent studies suggest that it would be appropriate to use these models as an extension of exploratory analysis. This type of analysis generates ensembles of alternate plausible representations of future system conditions. User expertise steers interactive, stepwise system exploration toward inductive reasoning about potential changes to the system. In this study, we develop understanding of the potential alternative futures for a social-ecological system by way of successive simulations that test variations in the types and numbers of policies. The model addresses the agricultural- urban interface and the preservation of ecosystem services. The landscape analyzed is at the junction of the McKenzie and Willamette Rivers adjacent to the cities of Eugene and Springfield in Lane County, Oregon. Our exploration of alternative future scenarios suggests that policies that constrain urban growth and create incentives for farming and forest enterprises to preserve and enhance habitat can protect ecosystem resilience and services.

Specialist and Generalist: Roles for Coping with Variability

Abstract Two behavior patterns of fishermen, specialist and generalist, are evaluated as ways of coping with market and natural variability. Changes in these behaviors predicted by an analytical model are evaluated against data from several fisheries. The predictions and the data suggest that a mix of specialist and generalist fishing behavior is a way of coping with unpredictability. Management usually regards fishing behavior as homogeneous; as a result, many management rules discriminate against one type of behavior or the other.

Contrasting Views of Coastal Residents and Coastal Coho Restoration Planners

Abstract Concern about declining Oregon coastal salmon runs (Oncorhynchus spp.) led to petitions to list them under the Endangered Species Act. In response, Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber advanced a voluntary restoration plan rather than a regulatory approach with federal requirements. The National Marine Fisheries Service accepted the governors approach. We surveyed 505 Oregon coastal residents and found solid support for a voluntary, nonfederal approach. Coastal residents expressed general support for salmon and environmental restoration, as did respondents to other recent surveys in the Pacific Northwest. However, the views of coastal residents differed from those of many agency people regarding the impact of marine mammals, use of hatcheries, and importance of naturally spawning salmon stocks. Residents also showed a willingness to pay and volunteer for salmon restoration that is comparable to responses for other surveys done in the region during the 1990s. The survey found coastal residents were ver...

Attitudes of Trawl Vessel Captains about Work, Resource Use, and Fishery Management

Abstract The fisheries literature embodies critical assumptions about fisherman attitudes and motivations. Common assumptions are that populations of fishermen are homogeneous in motivation and decision making and that they behave in a myopic fashion, ignoring the effects of their fishing activities on the fishery resource, The results of a survey of trawl vessel captains challenge these assumptions. We document a heterogeneous population of captains who hold a diverse set of views toward work, risk, and the ocean environment. We discuss the implications of these survey results for the design and implementation of fishery regulations, and for the rationalization of fisheries. We note the potential costs of misrepresenting fishermen in models of fishery resource use.

Social infrastructure to integrate science and practice: the experience of the Long Tom Watershed Council.

Ecological problem solving requires a flexible social infrastructure that can incorporate scientific insights and adapt to changing conditions. As applied to watershed management, social infrastructure includes mechanisms to design, cany out, evaluate, and modify plans for resource protection or restoration. Efforts to apply the best science will not bring anticipated results without the appropriate social infrastructure. For the Long Tom Watershed Council, social infrastructure includes a management structure, membership, vision, priorities, partners, resources, and the acquisition of scientific knowledge, as well as the communication with and education of people associated with and affected by actions to protect and restore the watershed. Key to integrating science and practice is keeping science in the loop, using data collection as an outreach tool, and the Long Tom Watershed Councils subwatershed enhancement program approach. Resulting from these methods are ecological leadership, restoration projects, and partnerships that catalyze landscape-level change.

Resource Scarcity and Inequality in the Distribution of Catch

Abstract What happens to the distribution of catch when resources become scarce/ Catch distributions for most fisheries where the stock is limiting are skewed such that the largest number of fishers take the smallest catches. Economic efficiency goals result in suggestions to eliminate small, inefficient producers. Oregon salmon fishing and bottom trawling, plus two nonfishery examples, illustrate that catch distributions become even more skewed with increasing resource scarcity. A simple model shows how increases in the number fishing and improvements in technical efficiency contribute to the creation of a distributional pattern in which a very few fishermen are very successful, whereas most other fishermen take increasingly smaller shares of the resource. Fishery management rules that apply equally to each participant in the fishery result in greater relative advantage for some producers and increase inequality.

The Life Cycle of Fisheries

Abstract Fisheries are viewed as organisms that have a life cycle. The typical life cycle begins with an initial emphasis on food production, next a growing interest in recreation develops, and finally comes aesthetic uses. As commercial productivity and the number of commercial and recreational users increases, conservation requires more stringent management measures. Food production opportunities decline and recreation uses expand. Substituting cultured stocks for natural ones increases the quantity of fish available, but usually the life cycle process continues. To adjust to life cycle and evolutionary changes, management needs to separate conservation decisions from allocation issues, manage to include as much of the stocks range as possible, control effort growth, and keep expectations reasonable.

A Comprehensive Approach for Habitat Restoration in the Columbia Basin

The Columbia Basin once supported a diversity of native fishes and large runs of anadromous salmonids that sustained substantial fisheries and cultural values. Extensive land conversion, watershed disruptions, and subsequent fishery declines have led to one of the most ambitious restoration programs in the world. Progress has been made, but restoration is expensive (exceeding US

Attitudes About the Value of Steelhead and Salmon Angling

300M/year), and it remains unclear whether habitat actions, in particular, can be successful. A comprehensive approach is needed to guide cost-effective habitat restoration. Four elements that must be addressed simultaneously are (1) a scientific foundation from landscape ecology and the concept of resilience, (2) broad public support, (3) governance for collaboration and integration, and (4) a capacity for learning and adaptation. Realizing these in the Columbia Basin will require actions to rebalance restoration goals to include diversity, strengthen linkages between science and management, increase public engagement, work acros...

Resolving allocation conflicts in fishery management

Abstract Factor analysis of attitudes held by steelhead (Salmo gairdneri) and salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) anglers revealed at least five factors that determine the value of angling. While steelhead and salmon anglers differed, they generally negatively evaluated three factors dealing with the economic benefits from angling. These were personal economic well-being, professionalism, and general economic well-being. Two positively evaluated factors related to pleasure and identity. Angler pleasure and identity, however, were not associated strongly with the quantity caught. High catch-and-effort steelhead and salmon anglers did not differ significantly from low-catch anglers having comparable levels of effort on either pleasure or identity measures.