Daiane Leite da Roza

Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

INTRODUCTION The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

Gravidez na adolescência e características socioeconômicas dos municípios do Estado de São Paulo, Brasil: análise espacial

Teenage pregnancy is a common public health problem worldwide. The objective of this ecological study was to investigate the spatial association between teenage pregnancy rates and socioeconomic characteristics of municipalities in Sao Paulo State, Southeast Brazil. We used a Bayesian model with a spatial distribution following a conditional autoregressive (CAR) form based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We used data from the Live Birth Information System (SINASC) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Early pregnancy was more frequent in municipalities with lower per capital gross domestic product (GDP), higher poverty rate, smaller population, lower human development index (HDI), and a higher percentage of individuals with State social vulnerability index of 5 or 6 (more vulnerable). The study demonstrates a significant association between teenage pregnancy and socioeconomic indicators.

Spatio-temporal trends in the risk of adolescent pregnancy in Minas Gerais, Brazil, 2000–2015

Purpose To investigate, through a spatio-temporal analysis, the association between the percentages of live births of adolescent mothers (LBAM) and the human development index (HDI), including the three components: income, education and longevity. Methods The percentage of LBAM was obtained from the Brazilian Live Births Information System for the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil in the period 2000-2015 and the HDI data and its components were obtained from United Nations Development Programs (UNDP) Human Development Reports. A generalized additive model (GAM) was used to estimate the relative risk of LBAM in relation to the HDI and to identify spatial clusters of the geographical distribution of LBAM, the Moran global and local index was used. Results There is an association between the HDI and its components with LBAM. The high values of relative risk are spatially concentrated in the northern part of the state of Minas Gerais. The graphs indicated a nonlinear relationship between LBAM over the years. Conclusions There is a strong spatial dependence of LBAM in Minas Gerais, which suggests that a geographical location plays a fundamental role in understanding it. The regional disparity confirmed in this study is inherent in the process of human development, it is important for planning actions aimed at the development of these regions in order to minimize existing disparities.

Spatial distribution of pregnancy in adolescence and associations with socioeconomic and social responsibility indicators: State of Minas Gerais, Southeast of Brazil

PURPOSE To describe associations between pregnancy rates in adolescence and socioeconomic and social responsibility indicators in the municipalities of the State of Minas Gerais, Southeast of Brazil, in the year of 2010. METHODS Ecological study using data from the Brazilian Live Birth Information System (SINASC). The percentage of live births to adolescent mothers (LBAM) for each municipality was calculated based on the quotient between number of born alive infants of mothers aged 10-19 years old and total number of live births in the year of 2010. Fully Bayesian models were used to obtain the percentages of LBAM adjusted for spatial effects and to assess possible associations with socioeconomic and social responsibility indicators. RESULTS The crude percentage of LBAM for the total number of live births in the municipalities of Minas Gerais in 2010 ranged from 0 to 46.4%, with median percentage being 19.6% and the first and third quartiles being 15.6 and 23.1%, respectively. This study has demonstrated a close relationship between adolescent pregnancy and socioeconomic indicators. LBAM percentages were found to be higher in municipalities with low population density, low human development index and other low development indicators. CONCLUSION The strong relationship between LBAM percentages and socioeconomic indicators suggests that adolescent pregnancy is more a social than a biological problem. Therefore, programs and actions should go beyond sexual education and information on preventive health methods.