Steven F. Venti

Do 401(k) contributions crowd out other personal saving

During the late 1980s. contributions to 401(k) plans eclipsed contributions to Individual Retirement Accounts as the leading form of tax-deferred individual retirement saving. This paper uses data from the 1984. 1987. and 1991 Surveys of Income and Program Participation to describe patterns of participation in and contributions to 401(k) plans. and to evaluate the net impact of these contributions on personal saving. We find that 401(k) participation conditional on eligibility exceeds sixty percent at all income levels. This pattern contrasts with Individual Retirement Accounts in the early 1980s. which exhibited a sharply rising profile of participation across income groups. We study the net effect of 401(k) contributions on personal saving by comparing the growth of non-401(k) assets for contributors and noncontributors. and by comparing the level of wealth for families who are eligible for 401(k)s with that of those who are not. We find little evidence that 401(k) contributions substitute for other forms of private saving. We also explore the substitutability of 401(k) contributions for IRA contributions. and revisit the question of whether IRAs substitute for other types of saving. Our findings suggest little substitution on either margin.

Tax-Deferred Accounts, Constrained Choice and Estimation of Individual Saving

The paper analyzes the effect of tax-deferred individual retirement accounts (IRAs) in the United States on net individual saving. The results are based on a model of constrained optimization with the limit on tax-deferred saving the principle constraint. The estimates suggest that contributions to IRAs represent substantial net saving increases. Were the IRA limit to be increased, only about 10 to 20% of resulting increase in IRA contributions would be taken from other savings. About 50% would come from reduced consumption and about 35% from reduced taxes.

Individual attributes and self-selection of higher education: College attendance versus college completion

Abstract We have estimated a joint discrete-continuous utility maximization model of college attendance and college completion. Special attention is given to the possibility that test scores and other individual attributes are poor predictors of who will succeed in college and thus may not promote optimal investment decisions and may indeed unjustly limit the educational opportunities of some youth. We find that: (1) College attendance decisions are strongly commensurate with college completion. Persons who are unlikely to attend college would be very likely to drop out of even their ‘first-choice’ colleges, were they to attend. College human capital investment decisions are strongly mirrored by the likelihood that they will pay off. (2) Contrary to much of the recent criticism of the predictive validity of test scores, we find that their informational content is substantial. After controlling for high school class rank, for example, the probability of dropping out of the first-choice college varies greatly with SAT scores. (3) Individual self-selection, related to both measured and unmeasured attributes, is the dominant determinant of college attendance.

Have IRAs Increased U. S. Saving?: Evidence from Consumer Expenditure Surveys

The vast majority of Individual Retirement Account contributions represent net new saving, based on evidence from the quarterly Consumer Expenditure Surveys (CES). The results are based on analysis of the relationship between IRA contributions and other financial asset saving. The data show almost no substitution of IRAs for other saving. While the core of the paper is based on cross-section analysis, important use is made of the CES panel of independent cross-sections that span the period during which IRAs were introduced. Estimates for the post 1982 period, when IRAs were available to all employees, are based on a flexible constrained optimization model, with the IRA limit the principle constraint. The implications of this model for saving in the absence of the IRA option match very closely the actual non-IRA financial asset saving behavior prior to 1982. IRA saving does not show up as other financial asset saving in the pre-IRA period.

Health, Education, and the Post-Retirement Evolution of Household Assets.

We explore the relationship between education and the evolution of wealth after retirement. Asset growth following retirement depends in part on health capital and financial capital accumulated prior to retirement, which in turn are strongly related to educational attainment. These “initial conditions” at retirement can have a lingering effect on subsequent asset evolution. We aim to disentangle the effects of education that operate through health and financial pathways prior to retirement from the effects of education that impinge directly on asset evolution after retirement. We find a substantial effect of education on asset growth through each of the pathways.

The Drawdown of Personal Retirement Assets

How households draw down the balances that they accumulate in retirement saving accounts such as 401(k) plans and Individual Retirement Accounts can have an important effect on the contribution of these accounts to retirement income security. This paper presents evidence on the pattern of withdrawals at different ages. We find a relatively modest rate of withdrawals prior to the age at which households are required to take minimum required distributions. Only seven percent of PRA-owning households between the ages of 60 and 69 take annual distributions of more than ten percent of their PRA balance, and only 18 percent of PRA households in this age group make any withdrawals in a typical year. The rate of distributions rises sharply after age 70 ½, when minimum distributions are required. The proportion of PRA-owning households making a withdrawal jumps to over 60 percent by age 71, and crosses 70 percent a few years later. On average, households age 60 to 69 with PRA accounts withdraw only about two percent of their account balances each year, considerably less than the rate of return on account balances during our sample period. Even at older ages - after the required minimum distribution age - the percentage of balances withdrawn remains at about five percent.

Economic Measurement in the Health and Retirement Study

The Health and Retirement Study (HRS) is widely use for research on the well-being of the elderly. This paper assesses the quality of economic and financial variables in the HRS. I find the coverage is comprehensive and the quality of the data is uniformly high. Thus the HRS has earned its position as the most widely used data source for research on retirement, saving adequacy, pension policy and a host of other aging-related topics. I identify two general areas that continue to merit special attention. The first is measurement error, particularly errors arising from item non-response and from inaccurate respondent reports of the ownership and level of assets. The second is the quality of the pension data. Where appropriate, I make suggestions for improving economic measures in the HRS.

Individual response to a retirement saving program: results from U.S. panel data

Abstract Heterogeneity in individual saving behaviour presents the major difficulty in determining the saving effect of special retirement saving programs. We address that issue in this paper by “using individuals as their own controls”. The paper considers changes in other saving when individuals made contributions to Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) near the outset of that program. The analysis is based on the 1984 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). For the most part, we find that when individuals who were not contributing to an IRA began to contribute there was little change in other saving.

The shift from defined benefit pensions to 401(k) plans and the pension assets of the baby boom cohort

The rise of 401(k) plans and the decline of defined benefit plans will have an important effect on the wealth of future retirees. Changing demographic structure also will affect the aggregate stock of retirement wealth. We project the stock of assets held in retirement plans and the average retirement saving of retirees through 2040. Our projections show large increases in wealth at retirement, especially if the returns on corporate equities are comparable with historical returns. Retirement wealth will grow, however, even if equity returns fall substantially below their historical level.

What Determines End-of-Life Assets? a Retrospective View

We consider assets when individuals were last observed prior to death in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and trace assets backwards to the age when these individuals were first observed. For most individuals, assets in the last year observed (LYO) were very similar to assets in the first year observed (FYO). In particular, most of those who were last observed with very low asset levels also had low assets when first observed. We also estimate the relationship between an individual’s asset change between the first and last date of observation, that individual’s education and health status when first observed, and that individual’s within-sample changes in health and family composition. We obtain estimates for HRS respondents who were 51 to 61 in 1992 and for AHEAD respondents who were age 70 and over in 1993.