David Mutonga

An Investigation of a Major Outbreak of Rift Valley Fever in Kenya: 2006–2007

An outbreak of Rift Valley fever (RVF) occurred in Kenya during November 2006 through March 2007. We characterized the magnitude of the outbreak through disease surveillance and serosurveys, and investigated contributing factors to enhance strategies for forecasting to prevent or minimize the impact of future outbreaks. Of 700 suspected cases, 392 met probable or confirmed case definitions; demographic data were available for 340 (87%), including 90 (26.4%) deaths. Male cases were more likely to die than females, Case Fatality Rate Ratio 1.8 (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.3-3.8). Serosurveys suggested an attack rate up to 13% of residents in heavily affected areas. Genetic sequencing showed high homology among viruses from this and earlier RVF outbreaks. Case areas were more likely than non-case areas to have soil types that retain surface moisture. The outbreak had a devastatingly high case-fatality rate for hospitalized patients. However, there were up to 180,000 infected mildly ill or asymptomatic people within highly affected areas. Soil type data may add specificity to climate-based forecasting models for RVF.

Risk Factors for Severe Rift Valley Fever Infection in Kenya, 2007

A large Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreak occurred in Kenya from December 2006 to March 2007. We conducted a study to define risk factors associated with infection and severe disease. A total of 861 individuals from 424 households were enrolled. Two hundred and two participants (23%) had serologic evidence of acute RVF infection. Of these, 52 (26%) had severe RVF disease characterized by hemorrhagic manifestations or death. Independent risk factors for acute RVF infection were consuming or handling products from sick animals (odds ratio [OR] = 2.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.78-3.61, population attributable risk percentage [PAR%] = 19%) and being a herds person (OR 1.77, 95% CI = 1.20-2.63, PAR% = 11%). Touching an aborted animal fetus was associated with severe RVF disease (OR = 3.83, 95% CI = 1.68-9.07, PAR% = 14%). Consuming or handling products from sick animals was associated with death (OR = 3.67, 95% CI = 1.07-12.64, PAR% = 47%). Exposures related to animal contact were associated with acute RVF infection, whereas exposures to mosquitoes were not independent risk factors.

Epidemiology of respiratory viral infections in two long-term refugee camps in Kenya, 2007-2010

BackgroundRefugees are at risk for poor outcomes from acute respiratory infections (ARI) because of overcrowding, suboptimal living conditions, and malnutrition. We implemented surveillance for respiratory viruses in Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps in Kenya to characterize their role in the epidemiology of ARI among refugees.MethodsFrom 1 September 2007 through 31 August 2010, we obtained nasopharyngeal (NP) and oropharyngeal (OP) specimens from patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) or severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) and tested them by RT-PCR for adenovirus (AdV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), human metapneumovirus (hMPV), parainfluenza viruses (PIV), and influenza A and B viruses. Definitions for ILI and SARI were adapted from those of the World Health Organization. Proportions of cases associated with viral aetiology were calculated by camp and by clinical case definition. In addition, for children < 5 years only, crude estimates of rates due to SARI per 1000 were obtained.ResultsWe tested specimens from 1815 ILI and 4449 SARI patients (median age = 1 year). Proportion positive for virus were AdV, 21.7%; RSV, 12.5%; hMPV, 5.7%; PIV, 9.4%; influenza A, 9.7%; and influenza B, 2.6%; 49.8% were positive for at least one virus. The annual rate of SARI hospitalisation for 2007-2010 was 57 per 1000 children per year. Virus-positive hospitalisation rates were 14 for AdV; 9 for RSV; 6 for PIV; 4 for hMPV; 5 for influenza A; and 1 for influenza B. The rate of SARI hospitalisation was highest in children < 1 year old (156 per 1000 child-years). The ratio of rates for children < 1 year and 1 to < 5 years old was 3.7:1 for AdV, 5.5:1 for RSV, 4.4:1 for PIV, 5.1:1 for hMPV, 3.2:1 for influenza A, and 2.2:1 for influenza B. While SARI hospitalisation rates peaked from November to February in Dadaab, no distinct seasonality was observed in Kakuma.ConclusionsRespiratory viral infections, particularly RSV and AdV, were associated with high rates of illness and make up a substantial portion of respiratory infection in these two refugee settings.

High Mortality in a Cholera Outbreak in Western Kenya after Post-Election Violence in 2008

In 2008, a cholera outbreak with unusually high mortality occurred in western Kenya during civil unrest after disputed presidential elections. Through active case finding, we found a 200% increase in fatal cases and a 37% increase in surviving cases over passively reported cases; the case-fatality ratio increased from 5.5% to 11.4%. In conditional logistic regression of a matched case-control study of fatal versus non-fatal cholera infection, home antibiotic treatment (odds ratio [OR] 0.049; 95% CI: < 0.001-0.43), hospitalization (OR, 0.066; 95% CI, 0.001-0.54), treatment in government-operated health facilities (OR, 0.15; 95% CI, 0.015-0.73), and receiving education about cholera by health workers (OR, 0.19; 95% CI, 0.018-0.96) were protective against death. Among 13 hospitalized fatal cases, chart review showed inadequate intravenous and oral hydration and substantial staff and supply shortages at the time of admission. Cholera mortality was under-reported and very high, in part because of factors exacerbated by widespread post-election violence.

Pathologic Studies on Suspect Animal and Human Cases of Rift Valley Fever from an Outbreak in Eastern Africa, 2006–2007

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an important viral zoonotic disease in Africa with periodic outbreaks associated with severe disease, death, and economic hardship. During the 2006-2007 outbreaks in Eastern Africa, postmortem and necropsy tissue samples from 14 animals and 20 humans clinically suspected of RVF were studied with histopathologic evaluation and immunohistochemical (IHC) assays. Six animal and 11 human samples had IHC evidence of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) antigens. We found that extensive hepatocellular necrosis without prominent inflammatory cell infiltrates is the most distinctive histopathologic change in liver tissues infected with RVFV. Pathologic studies on postmortem tissue samples can help establish the diagnosis of RVF, differentiating from endemic diseases with clinical manifestations similar to RVF, such as malaria, leptospirosis, or yellow fever.

Relationship of Climate, Geography, and Geology to the Incidence of Rift Valley Fever in Kenya during the 2006–2007 Outbreak

We estimated Rift Valley fever (RVF) incidence as a function of geological, geographical, and climatological factors during the 2006–2007 RVF epidemic in Kenya. Location information was obtained for 214 of 340 (63%) confirmed and probable RVF cases that occurred during an outbreak from November 1, 2006 to February 28, 2007. Locations with subtypes of solonetz, calcisols, solonchaks, and planosols soil types were highly associated with RVF occurrence during the outbreak period. Increased rainfall and higher greenness measures before the outbreak were associated with increased risk. RVF was more likely to occur on plains, in densely bushed areas, at lower elevations, and in the Somalia acacia ecological zone. Cases occurred in three spatial temporal clusters that differed by the date of associated rainfall, soil type, and land usage.

Using a Field Quantitative Real-Time PCR Test To Rapidly Identify Highly Viremic Rift Valley Fever Cases

ABSTRACT Approximately 8% of Rift Valley fever (RVF) cases develop severe disease, leading to hemorrhage, hepatitis, and/or encephalitis and resulting in up to 50% of deaths. A major obstacle in the management of RVF and other viral hemorrhagic fever cases in outbreaks that occur in rural settings is the inability to rapidly identify such cases, with poor prognosis early enough to allow for more-aggressive therapies. During an RVF outbreak in Kenya in 2006 to 2007, we evaluated whether quantitative real-time reverse transcription-PCR (qRT-PCR) could be used in the field to rapidly identify viremic RVF cases with risk of death. In 52 of 430 RVF cases analyzed by qRT-PCR and virus culture, 18 died (case fatality rate [CFR] = 34.6%). Levels of viremia in fatal cases were significantly higher than those in nonfatal cases (mean of 105.2 versus 102.9 per ml; P < 0.005). A negative correlation between the levels of infectious virus particles and the qRT-PCR crossover threshold (CT) values allowed the use of qRT-PCR to assess prognosis. The CFR was 50.0% among cases with CT values of <27.0 (corresponding to 2.1 × 104 viral RNA particles/ml of serum) and 4.5% among cases with CT values of ≥27.0. This cutoff yielded 93.8% sensitivity and a 95.5% negative predictive value; the specificity and positive predictive value were 58% and 50%, respectively. This study shows a correlation between high viremia and fatality and indicates that qRT-PCR testing can identify nearly all fatal RVF cases.

Molecular epidemiology of geographically dispersed Vibrio cholerae, Kenya, January 2009-May 2010.

Isolates represent multiple genetic lineages, a finding consistent with multiple emergences from endemic reservoirs.

A cost effectiveness and capacity analysis for the introduction of universal rotavirus vaccination in Kenya : comparison between Rotarix and RotaTeq vaccines

Background Diarrhoea is an important cause of death in the developing world, and rotavirus is the single most important cause of diarrhoea associated mortality. Two vaccines (Rotarix and RotaTeq) are available to prevent rotavirus disease. This analysis was undertaken to aid the decision in Kenya as to which vaccine to choose when introducing rotavirus vaccination. Methods Cost-effectiveness modelling, using national and sentinel surveillance data, and an impact assessment on the cold chain. Results The median estimated incidence of rotavirus disease in Kenya was 3015 outpatient visits, 279 hospitalisations and 65 deaths per 100,000 children under five years of age per year. Cumulated over the first five years of life vaccination was predicted to prevent 34% of the outpatient visits, 31% of the hospitalizations and 42% of the deaths. The estimated prevented costs accumulated over five years totalled US

National Surveillance Data on the Epidemiology of Cholera in Kenya, 1997–2010

1,782,761 (direct and indirect costs) with an associated 48,585 DALYs. From a societal perspective Rotarix had a cost-effectiveness ratio of US