David S. Schimel

Observations and modeling of biomass and soil organic matter dynamics for the grassland biome worldwide

Century is a model of terrestrial biogeochemistry based on relationships between climate, human management (fire, grazing), soil properties, plant productivity, and decomposition. The grassland version of the Century model was tested using observed data from 11 temperate and tropical grasslands around the world. The results show that soil C and N levels can be simulated to within ±25% of the observed values (100 and 75% of the time, respectively) for a diverse set of soils. Peak live biomass and plant production can be simulated within ± 25% of the observed values (57 and 60% of the time, respectively) for burned, fertilized, and irrigated grassland sites where precipitation ranged from 22 to over 150 cm. Live biomass can be generally predicted to within ±50% of the observed values (57% of the time). The model underestimated the live biomass in extremely high plant production years at two of the Russian sites. A comparison of Century model results with statistical models showed that the Century model had slightly higher r2 values than the statistical models. Data and calibrated model results from this study are useful for analysis and description of grassland carbon dynamics, and as a reference point for testing more physiologically based models predictions of net primary production and biomass. Results indicate that prediction of plant and soil organic matter (C and N) dynamics requires knowledge of climate, soil texture, and N inputs.

Climatic, edaphic, and biotic controls over storage and turnover of carbon in soils

Soil carbon, a major component of the global carbon inventory, has significant potential for change with changing climate and human land use. We applied the Century ecosystem model to a series of forest and grassland sites distributed globally to examine large-scale controls over soil carbon. Key site-specific parameters influencing soil carbon dynamics are soil texture and foliar lignin content; accordingly, we perturbed these variables at each site to establish a range of carbon concentrations and turnover times. We examined the simulated soil carbon stores, turnover times, and C:N ratios for correlations with patterns of independent variables. Results showed that soil carbon is related linearly to soil texture, increasing as clay content increases, that soil carbon stores and turnover time are related to mean annual temperature by negative exponential functions, and that heterotrophic respiration originates from recent detritus (∼50%), microbial turnover (∼30%), and soil organic matter (∼20%) with modest variations between forest and grassland ecosystems. The effect of changing temperature on soil organic carbon (SOC) estimated by Century is dSOC/dT= 183e−0.034T. Global extrapolation of this relationship leads to an estimated sensitivity of soil C storage to a temperature of −11.1 Pg° C−1, excluding extreme arid and organic soils. In Century, net primary production (NPP) and soil carbon are closely coupled through the N cycle, so that as temperatures increase, accelerated N release first results in fertilization responses, increasing C inputs. The Century-predicted effect of temperature on carbon storage is modified by as much as 100% by the N cycle feedback. Century-estimated soil C sensitivity (−11.1 Pg° C−1) is similar to losses predicted with a simple data-based calculation (−14.1 Pg° C−1). Inclusion of the N cycle is important for even first-order predictions of terrestrial carbon balance. If the NPP-SOC feedback is disrupted by land use or other disturbances, then SOC sensitivity can greatly exceed that estimated in our simulations. Century results further suggest that if climate change results in drying of organic soils (peats), soil carbon loss rates can be high.

Reconciling carbon-cycle concepts, terminology, and methods

Recent projections of climatic change have focused a great deal of scientific and public attention on patterns of carbon (C) cycling as well as its controls, particularly the factors that determine whether an ecosystem is a net source or sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Net ecosystem production (NEP), a central concept in C-cycling research, has been used by scientists to represent two different concepts. We propose that NEP be restricted to just one of its two original definitions—the imbalance between gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER). We further propose that a new term—net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB)—be applied to the net rate of C accumulation in (or loss from [negative sign]) ecosystems. Net ecosystem carbon balance differs from NEP when C fluxes other than C fixation and respiration occur, or when inorganic C enters or leaves in dissolved form. These fluxes include the leaching loss or lateral transfer of C from the ecosystem; the emission of volatile organic C, methane, and carbon monoxide; and the release of soot and CO2 from fire. Carbon fluxes in addition to NEP are particularly important determinants of NECB over long time scales. However, even over short time scales, they are important in ecosystems such as streams, estuaries, wetlands, and cities. Recent technological advances have led to a diversity of approaches to the measurement of C fluxes at different temporal and spatial scales. These approaches frequently capture different components of NEP or NECB and can therefore be compared across scales only by carefully specifying the fluxes included in the measurements. By explicitly identifying the fluxes that comprise NECB and other components of the C cycle, such as net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and net biome production (NBP), we can provide a less ambiguous framework for understanding and communicating recent changes in the global C cycle.

Global patterns of terrestrial biological nitrogen (N2) fixation in natural ecosystems

Human activities have clearly caused dramatic alterations of the terrestrial nitrogen cycle, and analyses of the extent and effects of such changes are now common in the scientific literature. However, any attempt to evaluate N cycling processes within ecosystems, as well as anthropogenic influences on the N cycle, requires an understanding of the magnitude of inputs via biological nitrogen fixation (BNF). Although there have been many studies addressing the microbiology, physiology, and magnitude of N fixation at local scales, there are very few estimates of BNF over large scales. We utilized >100 preexisting published estimates of BNF to generate biome- and global-level estimates of biological N fixation. We also used net primary productivity (NPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) estimates from the Century terrestrial ecosystem model to examine global relationships between these variables and BNF as well as to compare observed and Century-modeled BNF. Our data-based estimates showed a strong positive relationship between ecosystem ET and BNF, and our analyses suggest that while the models simple relationships for BNF predict broad scale patterns, they do not capture much of the variability or magnitude of published rates. Patterns of BNF were also similar to patterns of ecosystem NPP. Our “best estimate” of potential nitrogen fixation by natural ecosystems is ∼195 Tg N yr−1, with a range of 100–290 Tg N yr−1. Although these estimates do not account for the decrease in natural N fixation due to cultivation, this would not dramatically alter our estimate, as the greatest reductions in area have occurred in systems characterized by relatively low rates of N fixation (e.g., grasslands). Although our estimate of BNF in natural ecosystems is similar to previously published estimates of terrestrial BNF, we believe that this study provides a more documented, constrained estimate of this important flux.

Mechanisms of shrubland expansion: land use, climate or CO2?

Encroachment of trees and shrubs into grasslands and the ‘thicketization’ of savannas has occurred worldwide over the past century. These changes in vegetation structure are potentially relevant to climatic change as they may be indicative of historical shifts in climate and as they may influence biophysical aspects of land surface-atmosphere interactions and alter carbon and nitrogen cycles. Traditional explanations offered to account for the historic displacement of grasses by woody plants in many arid and semi-arid ecosystems have centered around changes in climatic, livestock grazing and fire regimes. More recently, it has been suggested that the increase in atmospheric CO2 since the industrial revolution has been the driving force. In this paper we evaluate the CO2 enrichment hypotheses and argue that historic, positive correlations between woody plant expansion and atmospheric CO2 are not cause and effect.

DAYCENT and its land surface submodel: description and testing

Abstract A land surface submodel was developed for the daily version of the CENTURY ecosystem model (DAYCENT). The goal of DAYCENT to simulate soil N 2 O, NO x , and CH 4 fluxes for terrestrial ecosystems determined the structure and processes represented in the land surface model. The land surface model was set up to simulate daily dynamics of soil water and temperature from a multi-layered soil system (0–1, 1–4, 4–15, 15–30 cm, etc.) and included surface runoff and above field capacity soil water dynamics during intense rainfall events and snowmelt into frozen soils. The comparison of the simulated soil water content (0–10 cm) with observed data from four sites was quite favorable (squared correlation coefficient— γ 2 =0.87, 0.65, 0.86 and 0.58) and the simulated results were comparable for the soil temperature model ( r 2 =0.92 and 0.95 for minimum and maximum 10 cm soil temperatures). Detailed soil water and temperature data during snowmelt time periods and following rainfall events are needed to fully evaluate the performance of the water flow model.

Divergence of reproductive phenology under climate warming

Because the flowering and fruiting phenology of plants is sensitive to environmental cues such as temperature and moisture, climate change is likely to alter community-level patterns of reproductive phenology. Here we report a previously unreported phenomenon: experimental warming advanced flowering and fruiting phenology for species that began to flower before the peak of summer heat but delayed reproduction in species that started flowering after the peak temperature in a tallgrass prairie in North America. The warming-induced divergence of flowering and fruiting toward the two ends of the growing season resulted in a gap in the staggered progression of flowering and fruiting in the community during the middle of the season. A double precipitation treatment did not significantly affect flowering and fruiting phenology. Variation among species in the direction and magnitude of their response to warming caused compression and expansion of the reproductive periods of different species, changed the amount of overlap between the reproductive phases, and created possibilities for an altered selective environment to reshape communities in a future warmed world.

Partitioning of ocean and land uptake of CO2 as inferred by δ13C measurements from the NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory Global Air Sampling Network

Using •13C measurements in atmospheric CO 2 from a cooperative global air sampling network, we determined the partitioning of the net uptake of CO2 between ocean and land as a function of latitude and time. The majority of •13C measurements were made at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) of the University of Colorado. The network included 40 sites in 1992 and constitutes the most extensive data set available. We perform an inverse deconvolution of both CO2 and •13C observations, using a two-dimensional model of atmospheric transport. New features of the method include a detailed calculation of the isotopic disequilibrium of the terrestrial biosphere from global runs of the CENTURY soil model. Also, the discrimination against •3C by plant photosynthesis, as a function of latitude and time, is calculated from global runs of the SiB biosphere model. Uncertainty due to the longitudinal structure of the data, which is not represented by the model, is studied through a bootstrap analysis by adding and omitting measurement sites. The resulting error estimates for our inferred sources and sinks are of the order of 1 GTC (1 GTC = 10 •5 gC). Such error bars do not reflect potential systematic errors arising from our estimates of the isotopic disequilibria between the atmosphere and the oceans and biosphere, which are estimated in a separate sensitivity analysis. With respect to global totals for 1992 we found that 3.1 GTC of carbon dissolved into the ocean and that 1.5 GTC were sequestered by land ecosystems. Northern hemisphere ocean gyres north of 15oN absorbed 2.7 GTC. The equatorial oceans between 10oS and 10oN were a net source to the atmosphere of 0.9 GTC. We obtained a sink of 1.6 GTC in southern ocean gyres south of 20oS, although the deconvolution is poorly constrained by sparse data coverage at high southern latitudes. The seasonal uptake of CO2 in northern gyres appears to be correlated with a bloom of phytoplankton in surface waters. On land, northern temperate and boreal ecosystems between 35oN and 65oN were found to be a major sink of CO2 in 1992, as large as 3.5 GTC. Northern tropical ecosystems (equator-30oN) appear to be a net source to the atmosphere of 2 GTC which could reflect biomass burning. A small sink, 0.3 GTC, was inferred for southern tropical ecosystems (30oS-equator).

Long- and short-term effects of fire on nitrogen cycling in tallgrass prairie

Fires in the tallgrass prairie are frequent and significantly alter nutrient cycling processes. We evaluated the short-term changes in plant production and microbial activity due to fire and the long-term consequences of annual burning on soil organic matter (SOM), plant production, and nutrient cycling using a combination of field, laboratory, and modeling studies. In the short-term, fire in the tallgrass prairie enhances microbial activity, increases both above-and belowground plant production, and increases nitrogen use efficiency (NUE). However, repeated annual burning results in greater inputs of lower quality plant residues causing a significant reduction in soil organic N, lower microbial biomass, lower N availability, and higher C:N ratios in SOM. Changes in amount and quality of below-ground inputs increased N immobilization and resulted in no net increases in N availability with burning. This response occurred rapidly (e.g., within two years) and persisted during 50 years of annual burning. Plant production at a long-term burned site was not adversely affected due to shifts in plant NUE and carbon allocation. Modeling results indicate that the tallgrass ecosystem responds to the combined changes in plant resource allocation and NUE. No single factor dominates the impact of fire on tallgrass plant production.

Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model

The potential role of solar variations in modulating recent climate has been debated for many decades and recent papers suggest that solar forcing may be less than previously believed. Because solar variability before the satellite period must be scaled from proxy data, large uncertainty exists about phase and magnitude of the forcing. We used a coupled climate system model to determine whether proxy-based irradiance series are capable of inducing climatic variations that resemble variations found in climate reconstructions, and if part of the previously estimated large range of past solar irradiance changes could be excluded. Transient simulations, covering the published range of solar irradiance estimates, were integrated from 850 AD to the present. Solar forcing as well as volcanic and anthropogenic forcing are detectable in the model results despite internal variability. The resulting climates are generally consistent with temperature reconstructions. Smaller, rather than larger, long-term trends in solar irradiance appear more plausible and produced modeled climates in better agreement with the range of Northern Hemisphere temperature proxy records both with respect to phase and magnitude. Despite the direct response of the model to solar forcing, even large solar irradiance change combined with realistic volcanic forcing over past centuries could not explain the late 20th century warming without inclusion of greenhouse gas forcing. Although solar and volcanic effects appear to dominate most of the slow climate variations within the past thousand years, the impacts of greenhouse gases have dominated since the second half of the last century.