Deborah Perez

Historic and Projected Patterns of Population and Household Change in the United States

Population and household change in the United States will show future patterns of continuous growth and diversification in age, race/ethnicity and household size and form. What such change is likely to mean sociologically and economically are discussed in this chapter for the total population and for age, racial/ethnic and household groups. The United States has grown from a population of 3.9 million in 1790 to more than 308.7 million in 2010, and is projected to grow to 420.3 million by 2060. Minority population growth will increase from 12.2% nonHispanic Black in 2010 to 13.2% in 2060; from 16.3% Hispanic to 30.6%, from 7.7% nonHispanic Asian and Other to 13.6%, and from 63.8% nonHispanic White in 2010 to 42.6% in 2060. Both the population and households will age with the percent of persons 65 years of age being 13.0% in 2010 and 21.9% in 2060. The number of households will also increase form 116.7 million in 2010 to 166.2 million by 2060. During the same period, households will become smaller and more diverse with the number of single parent and unmarried persons increasing among all racial/ethnic groups. These demographic changes form critical factors for understanding the socioeconomic future of the United States.

Effects of Population Change on the Size and Characteristics of the Labor Force of the United States

The United States labor force is projected to increase from 155.7 million in 2010 to 196.2 million in 2060, with the most rapid growth being in the Hispanic (153.6%) and nonHispanic Asian and Other labor forces (132.2%). The labor force is projected to become more diverse from 2010 to 2060 from 66.1 to 43.4% nonHispanic White, 11.4 to 12.5% nonHispanic Black, 15.2 to 30.6% Hispanic and from 7.3 to 13.5% nonHispanic Asian and Other. Because of lower levels of education for Hispanic and nonHispanic Black populations, without improvements in the level of education for such groups, the percentage of the labor force with higher levels of education and in managerial and professional positions will decrease resulting in decline in overall income levels (in 2010 constant dollars) from 2010 to 2060. If the education and workforce opportunities for nonHispanic Black and Hispanic workers are not improved future returns to labor in the United States will decrease.

Implications of Population Change for Health, Health Care, and Public Assistance Programs in the United States

Health and health care are markedly impacted by demographic factors including rates of population growth, aging and racial/ethnic diversification. The number of incidences of disease/disorders will increase by 48.6%, although the population is projected to increase by only 36.1% from 2010 to 2060. The nonHispanic White population is projected to show a 3.7% increase in the number of health incidences from 2010 to 2060, nonHispanic Black population increasing by 77.3%, the Hispanic population by 239.3 and nonHispanic Asians and Others by 193.3%. Projections indicate future shortages in the number of health care personnel with the number of personnel increasing by 7.4% while disease incidences increase by 48.6%. From 2010 to 2060 physician contacts are projected to increase by 54.1%, hospital days by 76.0%, physician costs by 56.8%, and hospital costs by 55.1% (in 2010 constant dollars). The reduced financial resources projected for the population and the aging of the population will increase Medicaid enrollment by 58.5% and Medicare enrollment by 102.7%. Population aging will increase Medicare costs to one trillion dollars per year, persons in nursing homes to 3.8 million and nursing home costs to

Effects of Demographic Change on Selected Economic Factors Impacting the Public and Private Sectors in the United States

12.1 billion per month by 2060. Clearly understanding the characteristics of the population of the United States is essential to understanding its future health care requirements and costs.

Impacts of Future Demographic Change on Education in the United States

Demographic change markedly impacts economic resources, expenditures, and assets. This chapter describes recent change in household income, expenditures, wealth, and poverty, and reports the results of projections of the same. Real median income was less and rates of poverty were higher in 2010 than 1999 with race/ethnicity specific income lower for minority households and poverty rates higher. Using alternative projection scenarios, this analysis demonstrates that increasing incomes for the growing number of minority households is critical. In the absence of increases in minority incomes, total real mean household income will decline by

The Effects of Demographic Change on Selected Transportation Services and Demand

3,400, household poverty rates will increase by two percent, and overall net worth will decline by 19%. These changes in household income will impact not only household expenditures and wealth but future tax revenues. Finally, this chapter delineates the effects of race/ethnicity change on home ownership and related expenditures. If current differentials in home ownership continue, rental housing will increase more extensively than owner housing (a 52.2% increase compared to 37.2% of owned households). These changes will lead to a net increase in renter and a decrease in owner housing expenditures. At the same time, the aging of the population will decrease housing expenditures for all household types.

Population Change in the United States

Demographic and socioeconomic change effects school enrollment and related costs. Nearly 50 million children were enrolled in public elementary and secondary education in the United States in 2010 and more than 15 million in public colleges and universities. Change in enrollment will be due to minority students such that by 2060, of the 59.2 million enrolled in elementary and secondary schools, only 32.1% will be nonHispanic White and, of the 17.9 million enrolled in public colleges and universities, only 41.7% will be nonHispanic White (compared to 52.4 and 62.6% respectively in 2010). By comparison 38.5% of those enrolled in elementary and secondary schools and 27.3% of those enrolled in colleges and universities will be Hispanic. Costs for elementary and secondary education will increase from

Changing Texas: Implications of Addressing or Ignoring the Texas Challenge

604 Billion in 2010 to nearly

Texas Early Childhood Education Needs Assessment Final Report

723 billion per year in 2060. College costs are projected to increase from

The Impact of the Food Stamp Program and Medicaid on Health Status: Evidence from Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) data.

305 to nearly