Michael E. Cline

Challenges in the Analysis of Rural Populations in the United States

Rural Demography in the United States is faced with a number of unique challenges. In this chapter we summarize some of the most important of these. We first concentrate on the issues related to the definition of what is rural both conceptually and empirically arguing that many of the challenges involve issues related to what “rural” is and where it is; that is, how its geography is linked to its populations. We then examine the unique problems created by the small population sizes in rural areas using four areas of analysis as examples of the challenges related to defining rurality and spatially locating rural areas. The four areas examined represent critical areas of analysis in both the measurement of demographic change in rural areas and in two areas where rurality has come to form a major differentiator of conditions and outcomes. We first examine the analysis of rates of fertility, mortality, and migration in sparsely settled areas. These basic demographic processes, essential to the understanding of demographic change in any area, pose unique problems for their analysis in rural settings. Similarly, the second example, the analysis of the estimation and projection of demographic processes, involves analysis and methods that require unique approaches in their projection in rural areas. Analysis in the third example area, the examination of the prevalence and incidence of diseases and disorders in rural areas, has faced similarly challenging issues related to obtaining sufficient data to delineate areas with uniquely high and low disease prevalence and incidence. Finally, large-scale environmental and other developments in rural areas often create problems that would not occur in more urban settings where resources to handle such developments are more developed. The analysis involved in establishing the population-related impacts of large-scale environmental and industrial projects in rural areas is of critical importance, if they are to be adequately mitigated. In the final part of this chapter we discuss the potential created by recently developed techniques to both operationalize and integrate the key dimensions of rurality and to link these dimensions with given pieces of geography. We believe that such techniques will help to ensure the homogeneity of areas being compared and help identify the dimensions of rurality that create demographic differences.

Historic and Projected Patterns of Population and Household Change in the United States

Population and household change in the United States will show future patterns of continuous growth and diversification in age, race/ethnicity and household size and form. What such change is likely to mean sociologically and economically are discussed in this chapter for the total population and for age, racial/ethnic and household groups. The United States has grown from a population of 3.9 million in 1790 to more than 308.7 million in 2010, and is projected to grow to 420.3 million by 2060. Minority population growth will increase from 12.2% nonHispanic Black in 2010 to 13.2% in 2060; from 16.3% Hispanic to 30.6%, from 7.7% nonHispanic Asian and Other to 13.6%, and from 63.8% nonHispanic White in 2010 to 42.6% in 2060. Both the population and households will age with the percent of persons 65 years of age being 13.0% in 2010 and 21.9% in 2060. The number of households will also increase form 116.7 million in 2010 to 166.2 million by 2060. During the same period, households will become smaller and more diverse with the number of single parent and unmarried persons increasing among all racial/ethnic groups. These demographic changes form critical factors for understanding the socioeconomic future of the United States.

The Future of Hispanics May Determine the Socioeconomic Future of the United States

Latino population growth will affect the socioeconomic future of the United States. Projections indicate that Hispanics will account for 71 % of 2010–2050 population growth in Texas and for 61 % of the Nation’s 2010–2060 growth. Due to historic, discriminatory, and other factors, Hispanics in Texas and the United States have household incomes that are only 60–75 % of, and poverty rates that are two to three times higher than those for non-Hispanic Whites. Analyses for Texas indicate that, without educational and related socioeconomic closure, the growth of Latino and other minority populations in Texas will decrease average annual household incomes by

Demographic Analyses for Public Policy: Projecting the Use of Veteran Educational Benefits in Texas

7800 and increase poverty by 3.1 % from 2010 to 2050. However, if socioeconomic closure were to occur, mean annual household income in Texas would increase by

Effects of Population Change on the Size and Characteristics of the Labor Force of the United States

66,000 and poverty decrease by 6 % by 2050. Improving conditions for Latinos will create more prosperous and competitive conditions for states and the Nation.

Implications of Population Change for Health, Health Care, and Public Assistance Programs in the United States

Demographers are often called upon to project change in public programs and to analyze alternative scenarios based upon proposed changes to public policy. In response, methods must be found to adequately prepare research despite limitations in time, data, and information. This chapter describes one such project completed to estimate the number of potential participants in a state-specific program to help veterans and their dependents obtain college degrees or technical credentials. We use the Hamilton-Perry method to prepare projections of veterans and veteran dependents as a basis for projecting the change in the use of a Texas specific educational benefit for veterans and dependents – the Hazlewood Exemption. We then use these projections of Hazlewood participants as well as estimates of the characteristics of veterans and veteran households to analyze the impacts of proposals for managing the future use of the Hazlewood Exemption. Despite recent wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the size of the United States military is much smaller than it was during the Vietnam and Cold War eras which will lead to a smaller veteran population as older cohorts of veterans age and die. The analysis indicates that the age characteristics of these veterans as well as the characteristics of their households are critical to understanding future levels of educational benefit usage.

Effects of Demographic Change on Selected Economic Factors Impacting the Public and Private Sectors in the United States

The United States labor force is projected to increase from 155.7 million in 2010 to 196.2 million in 2060, with the most rapid growth being in the Hispanic (153.6%) and nonHispanic Asian and Other labor forces (132.2%). The labor force is projected to become more diverse from 2010 to 2060 from 66.1 to 43.4% nonHispanic White, 11.4 to 12.5% nonHispanic Black, 15.2 to 30.6% Hispanic and from 7.3 to 13.5% nonHispanic Asian and Other. Because of lower levels of education for Hispanic and nonHispanic Black populations, without improvements in the level of education for such groups, the percentage of the labor force with higher levels of education and in managerial and professional positions will decrease resulting in decline in overall income levels (in 2010 constant dollars) from 2010 to 2060. If the education and workforce opportunities for nonHispanic Black and Hispanic workers are not improved future returns to labor in the United States will decrease.

Impacts of Future Demographic Change on Education in the United States

Health and health care are markedly impacted by demographic factors including rates of population growth, aging and racial/ethnic diversification. The number of incidences of disease/disorders will increase by 48.6%, although the population is projected to increase by only 36.1% from 2010 to 2060. The nonHispanic White population is projected to show a 3.7% increase in the number of health incidences from 2010 to 2060, nonHispanic Black population increasing by 77.3%, the Hispanic population by 239.3 and nonHispanic Asians and Others by 193.3%. Projections indicate future shortages in the number of health care personnel with the number of personnel increasing by 7.4% while disease incidences increase by 48.6%. From 2010 to 2060 physician contacts are projected to increase by 54.1%, hospital days by 76.0%, physician costs by 56.8%, and hospital costs by 55.1% (in 2010 constant dollars). The reduced financial resources projected for the population and the aging of the population will increase Medicaid enrollment by 58.5% and Medicare enrollment by 102.7%. Population aging will increase Medicare costs to one trillion dollars per year, persons in nursing homes to 3.8 million and nursing home costs to

The Effects of Demographic Change on Selected Transportation Services and Demand

12.1 billion per month by 2060. Clearly understanding the characteristics of the population of the United States is essential to understanding its future health care requirements and costs.

Population Change in the United States

Demographic change markedly impacts economic resources, expenditures, and assets. This chapter describes recent change in household income, expenditures, wealth, and poverty, and reports the results of projections of the same. Real median income was less and rates of poverty were higher in 2010 than 1999 with race/ethnicity specific income lower for minority households and poverty rates higher. Using alternative projection scenarios, this analysis demonstrates that increasing incomes for the growing number of minority households is critical. In the absence of increases in minority incomes, total real mean household income will decline by