Peter Wallensteen

Armed Conflict 1946-2001: A New Dataset

In the period 1946-2001, there were 225 armed conflicts and 34 of them were active in all of or part of 2001. Armed conflict remains a serious problem in the post-Cold War period. For three decades, the Correlates of War project has served as the main supplier of reliable data used in longitudinal studies of external and internal armed conflict. The COW datasets on war use the relatively high threshold of 1,000 battle-deaths. The Uppsala dataset on armed conflict has a lower threshold, 25 annual battle-deaths, but has so far been available for only the post-Cold War period. This dataset has now been backdated to the end of World War II. This article presents a report on armed conflict based on this backdate as well as another annual update. It presents the procedures for the backdating, as well as trends over time and breakdowns for the type of conflict. It assesses the criteria for measuring armed conflict and discusses some directions for future data collection in this area.

Armed Conflicts, 1946–2012

In 2012, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) recorded 32 armed conflicts with a minimum of 25 battle-related deaths. This is a significant decrease from the 37 recorded in 2011. Overall, the 2000s has been the least conflict-ridden decade since the 1970s. A worrying finding, however, is that the number of internationalized intrastate conflicts continued to be at a high level for the fourth consecutive year. At six, the number of wars – conflicts leading to 1,000 or more battle-related deaths – remained the same as in 2011. In total, UCDP estimates that the conflicts that were active in 2012 caused between 37,175 (low estimate) and 60,260 (high estimate) battle-related deaths, with a best estimate of 37,941. The conflict that caused the highest number of fatalities in 2012 is the Syrian conflict, which led to between 14,830 (low) and 30,805 (high) battle-related deaths, with the best estimate being 15,055. Eleven armed conflicts listed in 2011 were not active in 2012; however, three new conflicts erupted during the year – India (Garoland), Mali and South Sudan vs. Sudan (common border) – and three previously registered conflicts were resumed by new actors. Lastly, 2012 saw an increase in the number of signed peace agreements which had been at a very low level over the past three years; four accords were concluded during the year, compared with one in 2011.

Armed Conflict, 1989-2002

In 2006, 32 armed conflicts were active, a figure that has remained constant for three years. The decline in armed conflict observed through most of the post-Cold War period has ceased, at least temporarily. Many of the conflicts active in 2006 have a long history, which may have made them more entrenched and thus more difficult to solve. In fact, in contrast to the situation in the early 1990s, no new conflicts have erupted in the last two years. No interstate conflicts were active in 2006, but five of the intrastate conflicts were internationalized. While four of the conflicts recorded for 2005 were no longer active in 2006, four conflicts restarted, two with actions taken by new rebel groups and two by previously recorded actors.

Armed Conflict, 1946-2010

In 2010, UCDP recorded 30 active armed conflicts (i.e. with a minimum of 25 battle-related deaths). This is a substantial reduction in relation to the 36 conflicts registered for 2009. A drop of this magnitude has only been reported four times previously in the post-1946 period. However, only in two of these instances was this part of a general downward trend. Thus no major inferences should be drawn, except perhaps that the reduction in conflicts in Africa seems to be part of a trend. At 30 in 2010, the number of active conflicts is at its lowest level since 2003. Furthermore, the number of wars (1,000 or more battle-related deaths) declined from six in 2009 to four in 2010. The most intense war in terms of fatalities was in Afghanistan. Eight of the armed conflicts listed for 2009 were not active in 2010, but during the year two new conflicts erupted – Mauritania and Tajikistan – both involving rebel groups that had previously fought in neighbouring countries. Only two peace agreements were concluded during the year. While this is one more than 2009, it is decidedly below the annual average for the post-Cold War period.

Dyadic Dimensions of Armed Conflict, 1946-2007

In 2007, 34 armed conflicts were active worldwide, up by one from 2006 and by five from 2003, the year with the lowest number of active armed conflicts since the 1970s. While the number of conflicts increased, the number of wars, i.e. conflicts with over 1,000 battle-related deaths in a year, dropped by one to four. Five of the conflicts from 2006 were no longer active in 2007, but during the year, two previously recorded conflicts (in Mali and Pakistan) were restarted by new actors and two (in Angola and Peru) by previously recorded rebel groups. For the first time since 2004, two new conflicts were recorded: a conflict over governmental power in Niger and a territorial conflict in DRC. A conflict may involve one or more dyads or pairs of warring parties. In the 236 conflicts active since 1946, 487 dyads have been recorded in the new UCDP Dyadic Dataset. While most intrastate conflicts involve a single rebel group fighting the government, in 30 of the conflicts two or more dyads were active simultaneously. In 2002 and 2003, over 30% of the active conflicts involved more than one rebel group. The number of active rebel groups and changes in the set of groups are important elements of the complexity of any armed conflict, and the study of these aspects should be greatly facilitated with the new dataset. By adding the dyadic dimension to the study of conflicts, the analysis of a range of phenomena that have hardly been captured by previously available data is made possible.

Armed Conflict and Peace Agreements

In 2005, there were 31 ongoing conflicts, down by 1 from 2004. Notable for 2005 as well as for the previous year is that, while there were no major fluctuations in the number of conflicts, there were numerous changes when it comes to the conflicts listed. While ten of the conflicts recorded for 2004 were no longer active in 2005, nine conflicts restarted, four with action taken by new rebel groups and five by previously recorded actors. A total of 231 armed conflicts have been recorded since the end of World War II and 121 after the end of the Cold War. In one-third of the conflicts recorded after the Cold War, the conflicting parties have concluded peace agreements, solving, regulating, or deciding the incompatibility. Of the 144 accords, 70% were signed in conflicts over government; many of them were part of a peace process containing more than one agreement. In conflicts over government, the most common provision for resolving the incompatibility was the holding of elections. In conflicts over territory, the agreements often established local governance over the disputed territory.

Armed conflicts, 1946–2013:

In 2013, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) recorded 33 armed conflicts with a minimum of 25 battle-related deaths, up by one from 2012. Seven of these were recorded as wars, that is conflicts leading to 1,000 or more battle-related deaths in a calendar year. There have been 144 armed conflicts (47 wars) since 1989 and 254 armed conflicts (114 wars) since 1946. For the past ten years the amount of active armed conflict has fluctuated between 31 and 37. Six peace agreements were signed during the year 2013, two more than in the previous year. For the first time, this article also provides data on trends in battle-related deaths since 1989. These data do not show a clear time-trend. However, there is a particular difficulty in mapping the conflict in Syria, for which no credible battle-related deaths in 2013 can yet be reported.

Armed Conflict and Its International Dimensions, 1946-2004

In 2004, there were 30 active armed conflicts, up by one from 2003. Despite this slight increase, the number of armed conflicts remains lower than at any time since the early 1970s. While seven of the conflicts from 2003 were no longer active, one entirely new conflict broke out and seven conflicts restarted, three with action taken by new rebel groups and four by previously recorded actors. A total of 228 armed conflicts have been recorded after World War II and 118 after the end of the Cold War. The vast majority of them have been fought within states. However, a little over one-fifth of the internal conflicts are internationalized in the sense that outside states contribute troops to the conflict. Less overt support, involving, for example, financial and logistic assistance, is found much more frequently. This type of support was present in nearly three-quarters of the armed conflicts after the end of the Cold War. Both governments and rebels receive support from outside states, usually neighboring states. Outside support for governments fighting rebel movements is almost always provided by other governments, not by other rebel movements.

Armed Conflict, 1989-98

A total of 108 armed conflicts has been recorded for the years 1989-98. Of these, 36 were active in 1998. This marks an increase from 1997, after an overall decline in the number of conflicts per year since 1992. The number of wars nearly doubled in 1998, after a marked decrease that had also started in 1992. Most wars took place in Africa. Seven interstate armed conflicts were recorded for the whole period, of which two were active in 1998.

Armed Conflict and Regional Conflict Complexes, 1989-97

A total of 103 armed conflicts has been recorded for the years 1989-97. Of these, 33 were active in 1997. Six interstate armed conflicts were recorded for the period, of which one was active in 1997. The period exhibits a decline in total number of conflicts per year; a decline is also found in all regions with the exception of Africa. All new conflicts in 1996 and 1997 took place in Africa. More than half of the conflicts was linked to conflicts in neighbouring states. Regional conflict complexes were found in all regions, but were particularly significant in Europe and in Africa, where they also reached high levels of intensity.