Desmond Tsang

Global Financial Integration and Real Estate Security Returns

Have globalization and increasing economic and financial integration affected the rates of return of publicly traded real estate companies around the world? Using a set of multi-factor models for annual data for 946 firms from 16 countries over the sample period, 1995-2002, we estimate the impact of a countrys economic openness on returns of publicly traded real estate firms, controlling for the effects of global capital markets, domestic macro-economic, and firm-specific variables. We find that a countrys real estate security excess (risk-adjusted) returns are negatively related to its openness. The results are robust across different multi-factor model specifications, and suggest that real property market efficiency may have been enhanced for non-tradable goods such as real estate in globalizing economies.

Dynamic Residential Housing Cycles Analysis

This paper develops and tests a theoretical model for residential housing market cyclical dynamics. The model employs an interactive supply and demand framework to engender housing price dynamics. Under our set of assumptions, the two equation system is econometrically identified: the first equation, housing demand, relates rent, property values, and capitalization rates with demand fundamentals. The second equation, housing supply, relates housing investment and property values with supply fundamentals. Using the model, we analyze empirically the cyclical dynamics for residential properties in Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego and Sacramento for the 1988-2003 time period. The theoretical and econometric design represents improvements and/or modifications of previous studies in at least four ways. First, many of the earlier commercial cyclical analyses have focused on office appraisal and have relied on sparse transactions data, which are likely to be less reliable than the copious amount of residential transactions data. Second, the cyclical volatility and timing of single-family housing is different than that of commercial real estate. Third, by examining different local MSA markets in California, our study distinguishes and isolates national-macro, regional and local market variable effects upon cycles. Finally, utilizing quarterly data (versus annual data) sharpens our ability to focus upon cyclical behaviour. Our empirical analyses suggest that fundamentals, such as employment growth and interest rates are key determinants of the residential real estate cycles. However, in general, local fundamentals tend to have greater cyclical impacts than those of national or regional fundamentals.

Elective Stock Dividends and REITs: Evidence from the Financial Crisis

In response to the recent financial crisis, the U.S. Government introduced new rules which allow Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) to issue elective stock dividends (ESDs), i.e., noncash dividends, to satisfy their distribution requirements. The purported goal of these rules was to provide temporary relief to REITs facing cash flow problems. We investigate how the introduction of these rules affects dividend policy of REITs. Surprisingly, we document that only 17 REITs chose to issue elective stock dividends. We examine the characteristics of these REITs and find that their cash flows are similar to REITs that do not select these dividends. This suggests that cash flow problems are unlikely to be the primary determinant of the ESD issuance decision. Instead, our findings indicate the decision to pay ESDs is related to the level of loans that are close to maturity, REIT size, growth prospects and poor performance during the financial crisis. Furthermore, we find that the same factors determine the ratio, amount and frequency of stock dividends issued by these REITs. We also examine the response of shareholders to ESDs announcements and find positive abnormal returns surrounding these dividend announcements.

Debt Covenants and the Speed of Capital Structure Adjustment

This paper examines the impact of debt covenants on the speed of capital structure adjustment. Overall, we find that covenants lower the speed of adjustment by 10–13%, relative to the speed of adjustment of firms without covenants. The speed of adjustment is significantly lower, by 40–50%, for firms with the most intense covenant provisions. In particular, we find that capital covenants, as opposed to performance covenants, appear to be the main mechanism that lowers the speed of adjustment, delaying the speed of capital structure adjustment by 86%. We find that the speed of adjustment is reduced more for strict capital covenants than for strict performance covenants. We also show that, for firms that are cash and financially constrained, covenants impede the speed of adjustment even more. Lastly, we show that the negative relationship between covenants and the speed of adjustment is more pronounced for firms that are over-levered.

Does IFRS 10 on Consolidated Financial Statements Abandon Accepted Economic Principles

The 2007 global financial crisis revealed a deficiency in the financial reporting of off-balance-sheet vehicles. To better reflect risks associated with such items, International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 10 provided new principles for determining an investor’s control of an investee for the purpose of preparing consolidated financial statements. We show that an applicative example appearing under the new guidelines contradicts the conclusion drawn from widely accepted power indices: the Shapley-Shubik value and the Banzhaf index. Our study adds to the literature aiming to incorporate methodological economic thought into accounting principles.