Diane Orenstein

Forecasting the Future of Cardiovascular Disease in the United States: A Policy Statement From the American Heart Association

Background— Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States and is responsible for 17% of national health expenditures. As the population ages, these costs are expected to increase substantially. Methods and Results— To prepare for future cardiovascular care needs, the American Heart Association developed methodology to project future costs of care for hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke, and all other CVD from 2010 to 2030. This methodology avoided double counting of costs for patients with multiple cardiovascular conditions. By 2030, 40.5% of the US population is projected to have some form of CVD. Between 2010 and 2030, real (2008

The Economic Burden of Chronic Cardiovascular Disease for Major Insurers

) total direct medical costs of CVD are projected to triple, from

Mortality Benefits From US Population-wide Reduction in Sodium Consumption: Projections From 3 Modeling Approaches

273 billion to

From Model to Action: Using a System Dynamics Model of Chronic Disease Risks to Align Community Action

818 billion. Real indirect costs (due to lost productivity) for all CVD are estimated to increase from

Costs of Chronic Diseases at the State Level: The Chronic Disease Cost Calculator

172 billion in 2010 to

Using simulation to compare established and emerging interventions to reduce cardiovascular disease risk in the United States.

276 billion in 2030, an increase of 61%. Conclusions— These findings indicate CVD prevalence and costs are projected to increase substantially. Effective prevention strategies are needed if we are to limit the growing burden of CVD.

Using Simulation to Compare 4 Categories of Intervention for Reducing Cardiovascular Disease Risks

Accounting models provide less precise estimates of disease burden than do econometric models. The authors seek to improve these estimates for cardiovascular disease using a nationally representative survey and econometric modeling to isolate the proportion of medical expenditures attributable to four chronic cardiovascular diseases: stroke, hypertension, congestive heart failure, and other heart diseases. Approximately 17% of all medical expenditures, or

State-level medical and absenteeism cost of asthma in the United States

149 billion annually, and nearly 30% of Medicare expenditures are attributable to these diseases. Of the four diseases, hypertension accounts for the largest share of prescription expenditures across payers and the largest share of all Medicaid expenditures. The large number of people with cardiovascular disease who are eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid could lead to large shifts in the burden to these payers as prescription drug coverage is included in Medicare. A societal perspective is important when describing the economic burden of cardiovascular disease.

State-Level Estimates of Cancer-Related Absenteeism Costs

Computer simulations have been used to estimate the mortality benefits from population-wide reductions in dietary sodium, although comparisons of these estimates have not been rigorously evaluated. We used 3 different approaches to model the effect of sodium reduction in the US population over the next 10 years, incorporating evidence for direct effects on cardiovascular disease mortality (method 1), indirect effects mediated by blood pressure changes as observed in randomized controlled trials of antihypertension medications (method 2), or epidemiological studies (method 3).The 3 different modeling approaches were used to model the same scenarios: scenario A, gradual uniform reduction totaling 40% over 10 years; scenario B, instantaneous 40% reduction in sodium consumption sustained for 10 years to achieve a population-wide mean of 2200 mg/d; and scenario C, instantaneous reduction to 1500 mg sodium per day sustained for 10 years. All 3 methods consistently show a substantial health benefit for reductions in dietary sodium under each of the 3 scenarios tested. A gradual reduction in dietary sodium over the next decade (scenario A) as might be achieved with a range of proposed public health interventions would yield considerable health benefits over the next decade, with mean effects across the 3 models ranging from 280 000 to 500 000 deaths averted. Projections of instantaneous reductions illustrate the maximum benefits that could be achieved (0.7–1.2 million deaths averted in 10 years). Under 3 different modeling assumptions, the projected health benefits from reductions in dietary sodium are substantial.

State-Level Cancer Treatment Costs: How Much and Who Pays?

Health planners in Austin, Texas, are using a System Dynamics Model of Cardiovascular Disease Risks (SD model) to align prevention efforts and maximize the effect of limited resources. The SD model was developed using available evidence of disease prevalence, risk factors, local contextual factors, resulting health conditions, and their impact on population health. Given an interest in understanding opportunities for upstream health protection, the SD model focused on the portion of the population that has never had a cardiovascular event. Leaders in Austin used this interactive simulation model as a catalyst for convening diverse stakeholders in thinking about their strategic directions and policy priorities. Health officials shared insights from the model with a range of organizations in an effort to align actions and leverage assets in the community to promote healthier conditions for all. This article summarizes the results from several simulated intervention scenarios focusing specifically on conditions in East Travis County, an area marked by higher prevalence of adverse living conditions and related chronic diseases. The article also describes the formation of a new Chronic Disease Prevention Coalition in Austin, along with shifts in its members’ perceived priorities for intervention both before and after interactions with the SD model.