E. Georg Luebeck

Multistage carcinogenesis and the incidence of colorectal cancer

We use general multistage models to fit the age-specific incidence of colorectal cancers in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry, which covers ≈10% of the U.S. population, while simultaneously adjusting for birth cohort and calendar year effects. The incidence of colorectal cancers in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry is most consistent with a model positing two rare events followed by a high-frequency event in the conversion of a normal stem cell into an initiated cell that expands clonally to give rise to an adenomatous polyp. Only one more rare event appears to be necessary for malignant transformation. The two rare events involved in initiation are interpreted to represent the homozygous loss of adenomatous polyposis coli gene function. The subsequent transition of a preinitiated stem cell into an initiated cell capable of clonal expansion via symmetric division is predicted to occur with a frequency too high for a mutational event but may reflect a positional effect in colonic crypts. Our results suggest it is not necessary to invoke genomic instability to explain colorectal cancer incidence rates in human populations. Temporal trends in the incidence of colon cancer appear to be dominated by calendar year effects. The model also predicts that interventions, such as administration of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, designed to decrease the growth rate of adenomatous polyps, are very efficient at lowering colon cancer risk substantially, even when begun later in life. By contrast, interventions that decrease the rate of mutations at the adenomatous polyposis coli locus are much less effective in reducing the risk of colon cancer.

Age-specific incidence of cancer: Phases, transitions, and biological implications

The observation that the age-specific incidence curve of many carcinomas is approximately linear on a double logarithmic plot has led to much speculation regarding the number and nature of the critical events involved in carcinogenesis. By a consideration of colorectal and pancreatic cancers in the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registry we show that the log-log model provides a poor description of the data, and that a much better description is provided by a multistage model that predicts two basic phases in the age-specific incidence curves, a first exponential phase until the age of ≈60 followed by a linear phase after that age. These two phases in the incidence curve reflect two phases in the process of carcinogenesis. Paradoxically, the early-exponential phase reflects events between the formation (initiation) of premalignant clones in a tissue and the clinical detection of a malignant tumor, whereas the linear phase reflects events leading to initiated cells that give rise to premalignant lesions because of abrogated growth/differentiation control. This model is consistent with Knudsons idea that renewal tissue, such as the colon, is converted into growing tissue before malignant transformation. The linear phase of the age-specific incidence curve represents this conversion, which is the result of recessive inactivation of a gatekeeper gene, such as the APC gene in the colon and the CDKN2A gene in the pancreas.

Analysis of a Historical Cohort of Chinese Tin Miners with Arsenic, Radon, Cigarette Smoke, and Pipe Smoke Exposures Using the Biologically Based Two-Stage Clonal Expansion Model

Abstract Hazelton, W. D., Luebeck, E. G., Heidenreich, W. F. and Moolgavkar, S. H. Analysis of a Historical Cohort of Chinese Tin Miners with Arsenic, Radon, Cigarette Smoke, and Pipe Smoke Exposures Using the Biologically Based Two-Stage Clonal Expansion Model. Radiat. Res. 156, 78–94 (2001). The two-stage clonal expansion model is used to analyze lung cancer mortality in a cohort of Yunnan tin miners based on individual histories with multiple exposures to arsenic, radon, cigarette smoke, and pipe smoke. Advances in methodology include the use of nested dose–response models for the parameters of the two-stage clonal expansion model, calculation of attributable risks for all exposure combinations, use of both a fixed lag and a gamma distribution to represent the time between generation of the first malignant cell and death from lung cancer, and scaling of biological parameters allowed by parameter identifiability. The cohort consists of 12,011 males working for the Yunnan Tin Corporation, with complete exposure records, who were initially surveyed in 1976 and followed through 1988. Tobacco and arsenic dominate the attributable risk for lung cancer. Of 842 lung cancer deaths, 21.4% are attributable to tobacco alone, 19.7% to a combination of tobacco and arsenic, 15.8% to arsenic alone, 11% to a combination of arsenic and radon, 9.2% to a combination of tobacco and radon, 8.7% to combination of arsenic, tobacco and radon, 5.5% to radon alone, and 8.7% to background. The models indicate that arsenic, radon and tobacco increase cell division, death and malignant conversion of initiated cells, but with significant differences in net cell proliferation rates in response to the different exposures. Smoking a bamboo water pipe or a Chinese long-stem pipe appears to confer less risk than cigarette use, given equivalent tobacco consumption.

Multistage carcinogenesis and the incidence of human cancer

We consider the implications of multistage carcinogenesis for the incidence of cancer in human populations. When clonal expansion of partially altered cells is properly accounted for, we find it unnecessary to invoke genomic instability as an early event in malignant transformation. Environmental agents that increase the rate of clonal expansion of partially altered cells are efficient carcinogens. As a corollary, intervention strategies that decrease this rate are to be preferred to strategies that decrease the rate of early mutational events in carcinogenesis.

COLORECTAL CANCER INCIDENCE TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES AND UNITED KINGDOM: EVIDENCE OF RIGHT- TO LEFT-SIDED BIOLOGICAL GRADIENTS WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR SCREENING

Several lines of evidence support the premise that screening colonoscopy reduces colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence, but there may be differential benefits for right- and left-sided tumors. To better understand the biological basis of this differential effect, we derived biomathematical models of CRC incidence trends in U.S. and U.K. populations, representing relatively high- and low-prevalence screening, respectively. Using the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) registries (both 1973-2006), we derived stochastic multistage clonal expansion (MSCE) models for right-sided (proximal colon) and left-sided (distal colon and rectal) tumors. The MSCE concept is based on the initiation-promotion-progression paradigm of carcinogenesis and provides a quantitative description of natural tumor development from the initiation of an adenoma (via biallelic tumor suppressor gene inactivation) to the clinical detection of CRC. From 1,228,036 (SEER: 340,582; ONS: 887,454) cases, parameter estimates for models adjusted for calendar-year and birth-cohort effects showed that adenoma initiation rates were higher for right-sided tumors, whereas, paradoxically, adenoma growth rates were higher for left-sided tumors. The net effect was a higher cancer risk in the right colon only after age 70 years. Consistent with this finding, simulations of adenoma development predicted that the relative prevalence for right- versus left-sided tumors increases with increasing age, a differential effect most striking in women. Using a realistic biomathematical description of CRC development for two nationally representative registries, we show age- and sex-dependent biological gradients for right- and left-sided colorectal tumors. These findings argue for an age-, sex-, and site-directed approach to CRC screening.

Two-mutation model for carcinogenesis: joint analysis of premalignant and malignant lesions

A model for carcinogenesis that postulates two rate-limiting events for malignant transformation is a generalization of the recessive oncogenesis hypothesis, according to which inactivation of homologous tumor suppressor genes leads to cancer. This model has been shown to be consistent with a large body of epidemiologic and experimental data and has recently been used for the analysis of altered hepatic foci in rodents. These foci are considered to be premalignant lesions. In this paper the necessary mathematics for the joint analysis of premalignant and malignant lesions are developed within the framework of this model.

Does folic acid supplementation prevent or promote colorectal cancer? Results from model-based predictions.

Folate is essential for nucleotide synthesis, DNA replication, and methyl group supply. Low-folate status has been associated with increased risks of several cancer types, suggesting a chemopreventive role of folate. However, recent findings on giving folic acid to patients with a history of colorectal polyps raise concerns about the efficacy and safety of folate supplementation and the long-term health effects of folate fortification. Results suggest that undetected precursor lesions may progress under folic acid supplementation, consistent with the role of folate role in nucleotide synthesis and cell proliferation. To better understand the possible trade-offs between the protective effects due to decreased mutation rates and possibly concomitant detrimental effects due to increased cell proliferation of folic acid, we used a biologically based mathematical model of colorectal carcinogenesis. We predict changes in cancer risk based on timing of treatment start and the potential effect of folic acid on cell proliferation and mutation rates. Changes in colorectal cancer risk in response to folic acid supplementation are likely a complex function of treatment start, duration, and effect on cell proliferation and mutations rates. Predicted colorectal cancer incidence rates under supplementation are mostly higher than rates without folic acid supplementation unless supplementation is initiated early in life (before age 20 years). To the extent to which this model predicts reality, it indicates that the effect on cancer risk when starting folic acid supplementation late in life is small, yet mostly detrimental. Experimental studies are needed to provide direct evidence for this dual role of folate in colorectal cancer and to validate and improve the model predictions. (Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2008;17(6):OF1360–8)

Age effects and temporal trends in adenocarcinoma of the esophagus and gastric cardia (United States)

A number of hypotheses have been advanced to explain the rapid increase of the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma in the US. A major problem in identifying and understanding the nature of this increase is the difficulty in untangling age effects from temporal trends due to cohort and period effects. To address this problem, we have developed multi-stage carcinogenesis models that describe the age-specific incidence of adenocarcinoma of the esophagus and of the gastric cardia with separate adjustments for temporal trends. These models explicitly incorporate important features of the cancers, such as the metaplastic conversion of normal esophagus to Barrett’s esophagus (BE). We fit these models separately to the incidence of adenocarcinoma of the esophagus and of the gastric cardia reported in the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registry over the period 1973–2000. We conclude that the incidence of both cancers is consistent with a sequence that posits a tissue conversion step in the target organ followed by a multi-stage process with three rate-limiting events, the first two leading to an initiated cell that can expand clonally into a premalignant lesion, and the third converting an initiated cell into a malignant cell. Temporal trends in the incidence of both cancers are dominated by dramatically increasing period effects.

Multistage Models and the Incidence of Cancer in the Cohort of Atomic Bomb Survivors

Abstract Heidenreich, W. F., Luebeck, E. G., Hazelton, W. D., Paretzke, H. G. and Moolgavkar, S. H. Multistage Models and the Incidence of Cancer in the Cohort of Atomic Bomb Survivors. Radiat. Res. 158, 607–614 (2002). The analyses in this paper show that a number of biologically based models describe cancer incidence among the A-bomb survivors equally well. However, these different models can predict very different temporal patterns of risk after irradiation. No evidence was found to support the previous claim of Pierce and Mendelsohn that excess cancer risks for the solid tumors depend only upon attained age and not on age at exposure or time since exposure. Although the A-bomb survivor cohort is the largest epidemiological data set for the study of radiation and cancer, it is not large enough to discriminate among various possible carcinogenic mechanisms. Unfortunately for hypothesis generation, the data appear to be consistent with a number of different mechanistic interpretations of the role of radiation in carcinogenesis.

Impact of Tumor Progression on Cancer Incidence Curves

Cancer arises through a multistage process, but it is not fully clear how this process influences the age-specific incidence curve. Studies of colorectal and pancreatic cancer using the multistage clonal expansion (MSCE) model have identified two phases of the incidence curves. One phase is linear, beginning about age of 60 years, suggesting that at least two rare rate-limiting mutations occur before clonal expansion of premalignant cells. A second phase is exponential, seen in early-onset cancers occurring before the age of 60 years that are associated with premalignant clonal expansion. Here, we extend the MSCE model to include clonal expansion of malignant cells, an advance that permits study of the effects of tumor growth and extinction on the incidence of colorectal, gastric, pancreatic, and esophageal adenocarcinomas in the digestive tract. After adjusting the age-specific incidence for birth-cohort and calendar-year trends, we found that initiating mutations and premalignant cell kinetics can explain the primary features of the incidence curve. However, we also found that the incidence data of these cancers harbored information on the kinetics of malignant clonal expansion before clinical detection, including tumor growth rates and extinction probabilities on three characteristic time scales for tumor progression. In addition, the data harbored information on the mean sojourn times for premalignant clones until occurrence of either the first malignant cell or the first persistent (surviving) malignant clone. Finally, the data also harbored information on the mean sojourn time of persistent malignant clones to the time of diagnosis. In conclusion, cancer incidence curves can harbor significant information about hidden processes of tumor initiation, premalignant clonal expansion, and malignant transformation, and even some limited information on tumor growth before clinical detection.