E. Koomen

Modelling land-use change : progress and applications

Contributing Authors,- Preface,- Acknowledgements,- Modelling land-use change: Eric Koomen and John Stillwell,- Part I: Analysis of land-use trends and their driving forces,- Land-use change at cadastral parcel level in Albania: Louisa J.M. Jansen et al,- Driving forces of landscape change in the urbanizing Limmat Valley, Switzerland: Anna M. Hersperger and Matthias Burgi,- Landscape Changes in the Israeli Carmel Area: Michael Sonis et al ,- New land-use development processes associated with the acceleration of urbanisation in China: Zhi-Gang Wu et al,- Part II: Explanatory models of land-use change: Driving forces of land-use change in a cultural landscape of Spain: Juan Pena et al,- Empirically derived probability maps to downscale aggregated land-use data: Nicolas Dendoncker et al,- A spatial interaction model for agricultural uses: Joana Goncalves and Tomaz Dentinho,- Part III: Optimisation modelling: Spatial Optimisation in land-use allocation problems: Willem Loonen et al,- Sustainable land-use and water management in mountain ecosystems: Subrata K Mandal,- GeneticLand: modelling land-use change using evolutionary algorithms: Julia Seixaset al,- Part IV: Incorporation of new modelling approaches: Microsimulation of metropolitan employment deconcentration: Daniel Felsenstein et al,- Simulation of polycentric urban growth dynamics through agents: Wolfgang Loibl et al,- PUMA: multi-agent modelling of urban systems: Dick Ettema et al,- Integrating cellular automata and regional dynamics using GIS: Kampanart Piyathamrongchai and Michael Batty,- Part V: Operational land-use simulation models: A land-use modelling system for environmental impact assessment: Judith Borsboom-van Beurden et al,- The MOLAND modelling framework for urban and regional land-use dynamics: Guy Engelen et al,- Dynamic simulation of land-use change trajectories with the CLUE-s model: Peter H. Verburg and Koen P. Overmars,- Part VI: Land-use simulation for policyanalysis: Beyond growth? Decline of the urban fabric in Eastern Germany: Dagmar Haase et al,- Land-use Simulation for water management: Jasper Dekkers and Eric Koomen,- GIS-based modelling of land-use systems: Patrick Sheridanet al,- Appendix,- Index.

Modelling Land-Use Change

This first chapter explains some of the basic theoretical ideas, concepts and methodologies that underpin the modelling of land-use change. It represents an overview of the types of approaches that have been adopted by researchers hitherto. It also provides a rationale for the structure of the book and a synopsis of the contents that follow.

A procedure to obtain a refined European land use/cover map

Available land use/cover maps differ in their spatial extent and in their thematic, spatial, and temporal resolutions. Due to the costs of producing such maps, there is usually a trade-off between spatial extent and resolution. The only European-wide, consistent, and multi-temporal land use/cover dataset available is the CORINE Land Cover (CLC) map. Despite the value and usefulness of CLC, its minimum mapping unit (MMU) of 25 hectares considerably limits its applications at large scales of analysis. Our objective was to improve the spatial detail of CLC 2006 by incorporating land use/cover information present in finer thematic maps available for Europe such as the CLC change map, Soil Sealing Layer, Tele Atlas® Spatial Database, Urban Atlas, and Water Bodies Data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. Relevant data from these datasets were extracted and prepared to be combined with CLC in a stepwise approach. Each step increased the level of modifications to the original CLC. This process generated a newly refined version of the CLC 2006 map with an improved MMU of 1 hectare for all types of artificial surfaces and inland waters while keeping constant the original 100 meter cell size. A validation of the new map was carried out using Land Use/Cover Area frame Statistical survey (LUCAS) 2006 sample points. The observed increase in spatial detail was done, however, at the cost of cartographic consistency.

Land-use Simulation for Water Management: Application of the Land Use Scanner Model in Two Large-Scale Scenario Studies

Land use is one of the major components influencing local hydrological characteristics. Future land use is thus important in studies that focus on the upcoming challenges for water management. This chapter describes two applications of the Land Use Scannermodel on a national or larger scale, in which the scenario method is used to simulate future land-use patterns.

Land-use modelling in planning practice

PART 1 INTRODUCTION: 1. Introducing the Land Use Scanner: Koomen, Hilferink en Borsboom-van Beurden.- 2. LUMOS-models from an international perspective: Timmermans, Batty, Couclelis and Wegener.- 3. Core principles and concepts in land-use modelling: a literature review: Van Schrojenstein Lantman, Verburg, Bregt and Geertman.- PART 2 PRACTICE: 4. A sustainable outlook on the future of The Netherlands: Kuiper, Kuijpers-Linde, and Bouwman.- 5. Coupling detailed land-use model and a land-use and transport interaction model: Zondag en Geurs.- 6 Biomass on peat soils? Feasibility of bio energy production under a climate change scenario: Kuhlman, Verburg, van Dijk and Phan-Drost.- 7 Simulation of future land-use for a developing regional spatial strategy The province of Overijssel: Koekoek, Koomen, Loonen and Dijk.- 8. Lessons learned from using land-use simulation in regional planning: Jacobs, Bouwman, Koomen and van der Burg: PART 3 FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS: 9 Explaining land-use transition in a segmented land market potential input for Land Use Scanner: Dekkers and Rietveld.- 10 A policy perspective of the development of Dutch land-use models: Kuijpers-Linde.- 11 Developing a new market-based land use model: Borsboom-van Beurden and Zondag.

Climate-Change Adaptations in Land-Use Planning; A Scenario-Based Approach

Socio-economic and climatic changes are expected to alter the current land-use patterns in the Netherlands. In order to study these uncertain developments and propose adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the possible changes in the physical and societal environment a set of future scenarios is developed. These scenarios integrate possible socio-economic and climatic changes and are used in the Land Use Scanner model to simulate future land-use patterns. Based on these simulations sector-specific adaptation and mitigation measures are developed in related research projects as will be described in this paper.

A high resolution land use/cover modelling framework for Europe: introducing the EU-ClueScanner100 model

In this paper we introduce the new configuration of the EU-ClueScanner model (EUCS100) that is designed for evaluating the impact of policy alternatives on the European territory at the high spatial resolution of 100 meters. The high resolution in combination with the vast extent of the model called for considerable reprogramming to optimize processing speed. In addition, the calibration of the model was revised to account for the fact that different spatial processes may be prominent at this more detailed resolution. This new configuration of EU-ClueScanner also differs from its predecessors in that it has increased functionalities which allow the modeller more flexibility. It is now possible to work with irregular regions of interest, composed of any configuration of NUTS 2 regions. The structure of the land allocation model allows it to act as a bridge for different sector and indicator models and has the capacity to connect Global and European scale to the local level of environmental impacts. The EUCS100 model is at the core of a European Land Use Modelling Platform that aims to produce policy-relevant information related to land use/cover dynamics.

An assessment of the impact of climate adaptation measures to reduce flood risk on ecosystem services

Measures of climate change adaptation often involve modification of land use and land use planning practices. Such changes in land use affect the provision of various ecosystem goods and services. Therefore, it is likely that adaptation measures may result in synergies and trade-offs between a range of ecosystems goods and services. An integrative land use modelling approach is presented to assess such impacts for the European Union. A reference scenario accounts for current trends in global drivers and includes a number of important policy developments that correspond to on-going changes in European policies. The reference scenario is compared to a policy scenario in which a range of measures is implemented to regulate flood risk and protect soils under conditions of climate change. The impacts of the simulated land use dynamics are assessed for four key indicators of ecosystem service provision: flood risk, carbon sequestration, habitat connectivity and biodiversity. The results indicate a large spatial variation in the consequences of the adaptation measures on the provisioning of ecosystem services. Synergies are frequently observed at the location of the measures itself, whereas trade-offs are found at other locations. Reducing land use intensity in specific parts of the catchment may lead to increased pressure in other regions, resulting in trade-offs. Consequently, when aggregating the results to larger spatial scales the positive and negative impacts may be off-set, indicating the need for detailed spatial assessments. The modelled results indicate that for a careful planning and evaluation of adaptation measures it is needed to consider the trade-offs accounting for the negative effects of a measure at locations distant from the actual measure. Integrated land use modelling can help land use planning in such complex trade-off evaluation by providing evidence on synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services, different policy fields and societal demands.

3D visualisations in simulations of future land use: exploring the possibilities of new, standard visualisation tools

Abstract Three-dimensional (3D) visualisations are an interesting method for representing model outcomes. Most visualisation techniques require expensive software and a lot of time to create them. When the visualisations need to be adapted frequently, a faster and more flexible method is needed. The first step of the proposed model is to create the 3D elements. These elements are combined with the base map, and distributed to the public using Google Earth. Both freely available and commercial software are used in this process.

Introducing Land Use Scanner

The PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency has a long tradition in land-use modelling. Indeed, the PBL has been putting spatially explicit models of land-use change into practice for almost 15 years The agency manages the Land Use MOdelling System (LUMOS) toolbox, which currently consists of two well-known models for simulating land-use change: Land Use Scanner and Environment Explorer; as well as a set of tools for pre- and post-processing of the modelling results, of the latter of which the Map Comparison Kit is an example.