Maarten Hilferink

LAND USE SCANNER: an integrated GIS based model for long term projections of land use in urban and rural areas

Abstract. This paper describes the structure of the LAND USE SCANNER model, a GIS based model developed to generate spatial forecasts for various types of land use for a large number of grids. The model basically allocates land according to bid prices for various types of land use. The possibility of government intervention in land use is taken into account among others by adding aggregate constraints. The model includes all relevant land use types such as residential, industrial, agricultural, natural areas and water. The model is driven by sectoral models providing forecasts of aggregate land use in various land use categories. An application of the first version of the model is given for the Netherlands with some 200,000 grid cells. Further developments and refinements of the model are planned for the near future.

Residential construction, land use and the environment. Simulations for the Netherlands using a GIS-based land use model

The present generation of geographical information systems supports strategic planning processes in several ways. They are able to store, manage and analyse the enormous amount of data needed. Another more output-oriented use is the visualisation of the diversity of locational preferences and perspectives of different interest groups and stakeholders. For the simulation of (more indirect) effects of autonomous or planned developments land use modelling can be applied. A step further is the definition and implementation of a set of indicators that show the impact of land use change on different aspects of space and the environment in order to facilitate the (political) discussions, that are an essential part of strategic planning.This paper focuses on the application of a GIS-based simulation model in the framework of the Fifth National Physical Planning Report in the Netherlands. The simulation model generates future land use in the Netherlands given several growth scenarios and a spatial strategy that comprises both foreseen strategic and autonomous developments. Special attention is paid to residential construction because this is expected to be one of the major driving forces in land use changes. An analysis of residential construction for the period 1980–1995 reveals that residential construction has been relatively concentrated in areas close to existing urban areas. New town policies also played a rather strong role during this period. The presence of natural areas (woods and wetlands) plays a significant though limited role in the choice where to build new dwellings. The simulation results for the year 2020 are used to assess the effects of land use changes for a range of environmental indicators.

Climate-Change Adaptations in Land-Use Planning; A Scenario-Based Approach

Socio-economic and climatic changes are expected to alter the current land-use patterns in the Netherlands. In order to study these uncertain developments and propose adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the possible changes in the physical and societal environment a set of future scenarios is developed. These scenarios integrate possible socio-economic and climatic changes and are used in the Land Use Scanner model to simulate future land-use patterns. Based on these simulations sector-specific adaptation and mitigation measures are developed in related research projects as will be described in this paper.

A high resolution land use/cover modelling framework for Europe: introducing the EU-ClueScanner100 model

In this paper we introduce the new configuration of the EU-ClueScanner model (EUCS100) that is designed for evaluating the impact of policy alternatives on the European territory at the high spatial resolution of 100 meters. The high resolution in combination with the vast extent of the model called for considerable reprogramming to optimize processing speed. In addition, the calibration of the model was revised to account for the fact that different spatial processes may be prominent at this more detailed resolution. This new configuration of EU-ClueScanner also differs from its predecessors in that it has increased functionalities which allow the modeller more flexibility. It is now possible to work with irregular regions of interest, composed of any configuration of NUTS 2 regions. The structure of the land allocation model allows it to act as a bridge for different sector and indicator models and has the capacity to connect Global and European scale to the local level of environmental impacts. The EUCS100 model is at the core of a European Land Use Modelling Platform that aims to produce policy-relevant information related to land use/cover dynamics.

An assessment of the impact of climate adaptation measures to reduce flood risk on ecosystem services

Measures of climate change adaptation often involve modification of land use and land use planning practices. Such changes in land use affect the provision of various ecosystem goods and services. Therefore, it is likely that adaptation measures may result in synergies and trade-offs between a range of ecosystems goods and services. An integrative land use modelling approach is presented to assess such impacts for the European Union. A reference scenario accounts for current trends in global drivers and includes a number of important policy developments that correspond to on-going changes in European policies. The reference scenario is compared to a policy scenario in which a range of measures is implemented to regulate flood risk and protect soils under conditions of climate change. The impacts of the simulated land use dynamics are assessed for four key indicators of ecosystem service provision: flood risk, carbon sequestration, habitat connectivity and biodiversity. The results indicate a large spatial variation in the consequences of the adaptation measures on the provisioning of ecosystem services. Synergies are frequently observed at the location of the measures itself, whereas trade-offs are found at other locations. Reducing land use intensity in specific parts of the catchment may lead to increased pressure in other regions, resulting in trade-offs. Consequently, when aggregating the results to larger spatial scales the positive and negative impacts may be off-set, indicating the need for detailed spatial assessments. The modelled results indicate that for a careful planning and evaluation of adaptation measures it is needed to consider the trade-offs accounting for the negative effects of a measure at locations distant from the actual measure. Integrated land use modelling can help land use planning in such complex trade-off evaluation by providing evidence on synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services, different policy fields and societal demands.

Introducing Land Use Scanner

The PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency has a long tradition in land-use modelling. Indeed, the PBL has been putting spatially explicit models of land-use change into practice for almost 15 years The agency manages the Land Use MOdelling System (LUMOS) toolbox, which currently consists of two well-known models for simulating land-use change: Land Use Scanner and Environment Explorer; as well as a set of tools for pre- and post-processing of the modelling results, of the latter of which the Map Comparison Kit is an example.

Spatial Information Infrastructure for Scenario Planning: The Development of a Land Use Planner for Holland

In many industrialised countries, there have been significant changes in land use as a consequence of development processes. In the long term, more and more land has been used for urban and agricultural purposes. More recently, however, whilst the total area committed to urban land use has continued to increase, overproduction and intensification trends have led to a decline in the amount of agricultural land required. Moreover, the area of ‘natural’ land has increased in some countries in response to policies implemented by public and private agencies. The impact of different planning concepts on the land market, the environment and the urban and rural landscape can differ significantly. Scarcities of space, conflicting land use types as well as multi-actor decision-making have contributed to the increasing complexity within the planning process. Present planning methods lack the capacity to take different sources of (spatial) information into account and thus neglect the complexity of land use planning and development.