E. S. Sarachik

On the structure and evolution of ENSO‐related climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Lessons from TOGA

Improved observations in the tropical Pacific during the Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program have served to corroborate preexisting notions concerning the seasonally dependent relationships between sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, wind stress, rainfall, upper tropospheric circulation, and ocean thermal structure anomalies in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. However, the paradigm of a quasiperiodic “ENSO cycle,” phase locked with the annual march, does not capture the complexity of the evolution of the anomalies. The inadequacy of this model was particularly apparent during the second half of TOGA when the variability was highly aperiodic. Also, a single modal structure or empirical orthogonal function does not appear to be capable of representing the range of spatial patterns of ocean-atmosphere interaction in the tropical Pacific. These results suggest the need for a more inclusive phenomenological description of ENSO. Data collected during TOGA serve to confirm the influence of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies upon rainfall in northeast Brazil.

Stability and Variability of the Thermohaline Circulation

Abstract The stability and internal variability of the oceans thermohaline circulation is investigated using a coarse-resolution general circulation model of an idealized ocean basin, in one hemisphere. The model circulation is driven, in addition to wind forcing, by restoring the surface temperature to prescribed values, and by specifying freshwater fluxes in the surface salinity budget (mixed boundary conditions). All forcing functions are constant in time. The surface freshwater forcing is the dominant factor in determining the models stability and internal variability. Increasing the relative importance of freshwater flux versus thermal forcing, in turn, one stable steady state of the model, two stable ones, one stable, and one unstable equilibrium, or no stable steady states at all are found. If the freshwater forcing is sufficiently strong, self-sustained oscillations exist in the deep-water formation rate, which last thousands of years. One type of oscillation occurs on the time scale of decades ...

The Role of Mixed Boundary Conditions in Numerical Models of the Ocean's Climate

Abstract Several simple numerical experiments are conducted, using both single- and double-hemisphere ocean basins under symmetric steady forcing to study de oceans thermohaline circulation. It is shown that a stable steady state obtained under a restoring surface boundary condition on salinity becomes unstable upon a switch to a flux boundary condition. The polar halocline catastrope of F. Bryan occurs. It is shown that further integration of this collapsed state ultimately yields a steady, stable one-cell circulation with the approach being essentially chaotic but with significant energy at decadal period. The two-hemisphere ocean passes through many stages in which violent overturning occurs O(80 × 101 m3 a−1). These flushes occurs in both hemispheres and are of one-cell structure. The time period between them Bushes varies from seveal hundred to about one thousand years. A single 12-vertical-level hemispheric basin, spun up from an initial state of rest under mixed boundary conditions (restoring boun...

Evidence for decadal variability in an ocean general circulation model: An advective mechanism 1

Abstract A series of numerical experiments involving long‐time integrations are conducted using the Bryan‐Cox Ocean General Circulation Model under mixed surface boundary conditions (i.e. a Newtonian restoring surface boundary condition on temperature and a specified flux boundary condition on salinity). Under steady forcing the system oscillates with significant energy at decadal period. This oscillation is shown to be an advective phenomenon, associated with the propagation of salinity and temperature anomalies from the region between the subtropical and subpolar gyres, where they are generated, to the eastern boundary, where deep water is formed. Furthermore, the oscillation is characterized by the fluctuation of the thermohaline circulation between a state in which deep water is formed and a collapsed state in which no deep water is formed. Over the period of the oscillation the poleward heat transport changes by as much as a factor of 3 at certain latitudes. The anomalies are initially formed by the ...

A Study of the Predictability of Tropical Pacific SST in a Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Model Using Singular Vector Analysis: The Role of the Annual Cycle and the ENSO Cycle*

Abstract The authors examine the sensitivity of the Battisti coupled atmosphere–ocean model—considered as a forecast model for the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—to perturbations in the sea surface temperature (SST) field applied at the beginning of a model integration. The spatial structures of the fastest growing SST perturbations are determined by singular vector analysis of an approximation to the propagator for the linearized system. Perturbation growth about the following four reference trajectories is considered: (i) the annual cycle, (ii) a freely evolving model ENSO cycle with an annual cycle in the basic state, (iii) the annual mean basic state, and (iv) a freely evolving model ENSO cycle with an annual mean basic state. Singular vectors with optimal growth over periods of 3, 6, and 9 months are computed. The magnitude of maximum perturbation growth is highly dependent on both the phase of the seasonal cycle and the phase of the ENSO cycle at which the perturbation is applied and on the dur...

On the Importance of Vertical Resolution in Certain Ocean General Circulation Models

Abstract In centered difference models of ocean circulation, two grid-point computational modes can be excited if grid Reynolds and Peclet numbers are greater than two. The Bryan-Cox General Circulation Model (GCM) is used to show the dramatic effect that this instability has on the equatorial thermohaline circulation. In many recent numerical calculations researchers have used 12 vertical levels. It is shown that this resolution produces an artificial cell at the equator when typical values of the vertical diffusivity and viscosity parameters are used. This artifical cell rotates counter to the primary cell driven by deep water formation at high latitudes, is driven by downwelling at the eastern boundary near the equator and is 40% the strength of the primary cell for the parameters used in the present study. When the vertical resolution is increased the cell vanishes. It is suggested therefore that higher vertical resolution should be used in Bryan-Cox GCM deep-ocean modeling studies when current values...

Understanding and predicting ENSO

Throughout the 1960s and 1970s, oceanographers referred to the large-scale warming of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific as El Nino. This anomalous warming was later shown to be associated with anomalies in the upper ocean thermal structure throughout the equatorial Pacific Ocean. At about the same time, scientists realized that the Southern Oscillation was intimately related to the large-scale changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean. In brief, the Southern Oscillation represents the variability in the Indo-Pacific Walker circulation in the tropics, and is manifest as a displacement of the convection over the maritime continent, and is associated with large-scale anomalies in the surface wind and sea level pressure throughout the tropical Pacific (and into the Indian Ocean) basin.

An approach to designing a national climate service

Climate variability and change are considerably important for a wide range of human activities and natural ecosystems. Climate science has made major advances during the last two decades, yet climate information is neither routinely useful for nor used in planning. What is needed is a mechanism, a national climate service (NCS), to connect climate science to decision-relevant questions and support building capacity to anticipate, plan for, and adapt to climate fluctuations. This article contributes to the national debate for an NCS by describing the rationale for building an NCS, the functions and services it would provide, and how it should be designed and evaluated. The NCS is most effectively achieved as a federal interagency partnership with critically important participation by regional climate centers, state climatologists, the emerging National Integrated Drought Information System, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Regional Integrated Sciences Assessment (RISA) teams in a sustained relationship with a wide variety of stakeholders. Because the NCS is a service, and because evidence indicates that the regional spatial scale is most important for delivering climate services, given subnational geographical/geophysical complexity, attention is focused on lessons learned from the University of Washington Climate Impacts Groups 10 years of experience, the first of the NOAA RISA teams.

A Consistent Model for the Large-Scale Steady Surface Atmospheric Circulation in the Tropics*

The authors present a new model of the tropical surface circulation, forced by changes in sensible heat and evaporative flux anomalies that are associated with prescribed sea surface temperature anomalies. The model is similar to the Lindzen and Nigam (LN) boundary layer model, also driven by the above flux anomalies; but here, since the boundary layer is assumed well mixed and capped by an inversion, the model reduces to a twolayer, reduced-gravity system. Furthermore, the rate of exchange of mass across the boundary layer‐free atmosphere interface is dependent on the moisture budget in the boundary layer. When moist convection is diagnosed to occur, detrainment operates on the timescale associated with the life cycle of deep convection, approximately eight hours. Otherwise, the detrainment is assumed to be associated with the mixing out of the stable tropical boundary layer, which has a timescale of about one day. The model provides a diagnostic estimate of the anomalies in precipitation. However, it is assumed that the latent heat is released above the boundary layer, and it drives a circulation that does not impact the boundary layer. The authors discuss the derivations of the Gill‐Zebiak (GZ) and Lindzen‐Nigam models and highlight some apparent inconsistencies between their derivation and the values of several of the parameters that are required for these models to achieve realistic solutions for the circulations. Then, the new reduced-gravity boundary model equations are rewritten in the form of the GZ and LN models. Using realistic values for the parameters in the new model geometry, it is shown that the constants combine in the rewritten equations to produce the physically doubtful constants in the GZ and LN models, hence, the reason for the apparent success of these models.

Tropical sea surface temperature - An interactive one-dimensional atmosphere-ocean model

Because the atmosphere and ocean are interacting systems, it is inappropriate to specify sea surface temperature when dealing with the atmosphere, or atmospheric anemometer level temperature and moisture when dealing with the ocean. All of these quantities should be determined interactively in terms of the external forcing: the solar constant. In the tropics, it is shown that the (cumulus) convective processes may be described by a one-dimensional cloud model. The near-surface ocean may similarly be described by a one-dimensional mixed-layer model. The coupling is achieved through a sea surface flux budget combined with the flux parameterizations implied by Monin-Obukhov similarity theory. The coupled one-dimensional atmosphere-ocean model is applied to the equilibrium situation in which all temperatures reach a steady state. Since the ocean, lacking an internal heating or cooling mechanism, can only be heated or cooled through sensibleheat fluxes through the sea surface, in equilibrium these fluxes must vanish. The atmosphere, however, maintains a stable lapse rate by balancing cumulonimbus heating against net radiative cooling. All water precipitated from cumulonimbus clouds must have evaporated from sea surface. It is shown that this equilibrium system is closed and determinable solely in terms of the solar constant. For various values of the solar constant, the sea surface temperature, the flux of latent and sensible heat from the surface, the height of the tropopause, mixed layer, and trade inversion layer, and generally, the entire vertical structure of the tropical atmosphere and near-surface ocean can be determined. The equilibrium sea surface temperature is shown to be relatively insensitive to changes in the solar constant, additional solar flux being compensated mainly by additional evaporation. Finally, the usefulness and limitations of the model are pointed out.