Edson Paulo Domingues

Regional effects of economic integration: the case of Brazil

Abstract In this paper, alternative strategies of economic integration are evaluated from the Brazilian perspective. Traditional trade gains and losses are considered in a cost-competitiveness approach, based on relative changes in the industrial cost and demand structures. In the first part of the analysis, a national CGE model is used in order to assess the first-round impacts of three alternative trade liberalization scenarios. In the second part, a Machlup–Goodwin-type interregional model is integrated to the CGE model in order to generate a top-down disaggregation of the national results. Spatial implications of the trade policies are assessed, showing that the trade strategies examined are likely to increase regional inequality in the country.

Assessing the ex ante economic impacts of transportation infrastructure policies in Brazil

This paper uses a fully operational inter-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model implemented for the Brazilian economy, based on previous work by Haddad and Hewings, in order to assess the likely economic effects of road transportation policy changes in Brazil. Among the features embedded in this framework, modelling of external scale economies and transportation costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. The model is calibrated for 109 regions. The explicit modelling of transportation costs built into the inter-regional CGE model, based on origin–destination flows, which takes into account the spatial structure of the Brazilian economy, creates the capability of integrating the inter-regional CGE model with a geo-coded transportation network model enhancing the potential of the framework in understanding the role of infrastructure on regional development. The transportation model used is the so-called Highway Development and Management, developed by the World Bank, implemented using the software TransCAD. Further extensions of the current model specification for integrating other features of transport planning in a continental industrialising country like Brazil are discussed, with the goal of building a bridge between conventional transport planning practices and the innovative use of CGE models. In order to illustrate the analytical power of the integrated system, the authors present a set of simulations, which evaluate the ex ante economic impacts of physical/qualitative changes in the Brazilian road network (for example, a highway improvement), in accordance with recent policy developments in Brazil. Rather than providing a critical evaluation of this debate, they intend to emphasise the likely structural impacts of such policies. They expect that the results will reinforce the need to better specifying spatial interactions in inter-regional CGE models.

Política tributária e re-localização

Tax policy proposals usually do not take into account effects at sub-national levels. Even when their spatial consequences are taken into account, the available information and analytical tools are not well suited to produce relevant insights to the policymaker. Thus, sound methodological frameworks, built upon consistent regional data, are necessary. This paper deals with important methodological aspects in tax policy/reform studies: tax base endogeneity, changes in relative prices, and sectoral and regional substitution. These aspects can be quantitatively evaluated through inter-regional computable general equilibrium models. Short-run and long-run spatial considerations can be rigorously assessed, producing relevant information to regional planning.

Quanto vale o show?: Impactos econômicos dos investimentos da Copa do Mundo 2014 no Brasil

This paper aims to predict the economic impacts of 2014 FIFA World Cup in the Brazilian economy, states and host cities. We consider the investments in renovation/construction of sports infrastructure (stadiums) and urban infrastructure published recently by the Ministry of Sports. The impacts of construction and operation of those investments are projected through simulations with a computable general equilibrium model, with special attention to funding options (public, private and BNDES).

The contribution of universities and research institutes to Brazilian innovation system

This paper aims to investigate interactions among universities, research institutes and firms in the innovation system. The study is based on a primary survey of 1005 research group leaders from universities and research institutes who declared that they interact with firms. Three issues from the questionnaire were explored: the types of interactions, the channels of information and the outcomes of the interactions. A logit model was estimated to analyse the interactive behaviour. The study observed that R&D (research and development), short-term collaborative projects and consulting, which constitute the types of interaction, and publications, that constitute the channels of information, have important influence on the new research projects, which are results of the interactions.

Aglomerações econômicas no Sul-Sudeste e no Nordeste Brasileiro: estruturas, escalas e diferenciais

This paper compares the spatial economic agglomerations of the South and Southeast Brazilian states with the one composed by the Northeast Brazilian states. Two issues were discussed: first, the number and scale of the economic cores in the regions; and second, the productive structures that sustain those agglomerations. The study is based on a set of data with 35,600 manufacturing firms (PIA 2000, PINTEC 2000 e SECEX 2000) and 5,507 municipalities in Brazil (ADH 2000, SIMBRASIL 2000, IPEA Data, IBGE 2000), and information on scientific and technological production, services and agriculture. Based on this information, the economic agglomerations were identified and their productive structures were characterized.

Medidas Recentes de Desoneração Tributária no Brasil: Uma Análise de Equilíbrio Geral Computável

O objetivo deste trabalho e avaliar os impactos economicos da desoneracao da folha de pagamentos conforme a politica instituida pelo Governo Federal. Para tanto, utiliza-se um modelo de equilibrio geral computavel desenhado para simulacoes de estatica comparativa. Os resultados mostram efeitos positivos para o crescimento de longo prazo da economia, com elevacao do emprego, do PIB e do consumo das familias. Contudo, verifica-se efeito negativo sobre as exportacoes. Conclui-se que a escolha dos setores abrangidos pela politica pode representar um ponto crucial para sua eficacia.

Structuring investment and regional inequalities in the Brazilian Northeast

ABSTRACT Structuring investment and regional inequalities in the Brazilian Northeast. Regional Studies. This paper evaluates the long-run regional impacts of the construction of three oil refineries proposed for Brazil’s Northeast (NE) region. A dynamic, interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was developed, with 28 regions in the NE and the rest of Brazil and 30 sectors. The database construction methodology could be applied to any other country. The main results of the refinery investment simulations in the NE indicate positive impacts in all regions. However, the construction and operation of these three refineries would generate an increase in intraregional inequalities. On the other hand, in the long run, these investments could contribute to the NE gaining an increased relative share of Brazilian gross domestic product (GDP).

Avaliação do Padrão de Consumo de Bens e Serviços de Saúde: Uma Abordagem de Equilíbrio Geral Computável para a Economia Brasileira

A populacao brasileira vem sofrendo transicoes decorrentes de mudancas nos niveis de mortalidade e fecundidade. Uma das implicacoes desse processo e o aumento da expectativa de vida, fato que reflete diretamente no padrao de consumo dos individuos. Neste contexto, o presente trabalho analisa o impacto de alteracoes nas preferencias das familias em direcao a bens e servicos saude, sobre indicadores macroeconomicos e bem estar, segundo uma abordagem de Equilibrio Geral. A principal conclusao mostra que mudancas das preferencias e dos precos em direcao a bens saude implicam em uma elevacao na renda para compensar o consumidor pelas variacoes de precos.

Projeção de um cenário econômico e de desmatamento para a Amazônia Legal brasileira entre 2006 e 2030

The Legal Amazon was the target of development policies during the twentieth century. With different structural characteristics from the rest of Brazil and possessing the largest tropical forest of the world, the result was economic growth and deforestation. Some elements, such as the developmental policies from the 1970s and 1980s, investments in infrastructure, livestock and agriculture, have been pointed out as the determinants of deforestation. This paper presents a methodology for projecting deforestation in the different regions within the Legal Amazon caused by economic factors and structural conditions. We thus used a dynamic interregional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with a specification for land use, an innovation within the literature. The results for the period under study (2006-2030) showed that regions with higher growth and deforestation would be those located in the arc of deforestation (Mato Grosso, Para e Rondonia), especially areas of soybean and cattle production.